# Uninsured rate drops to lowest number since Obama took office **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 10, 2014, 9:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385 "2014-03-10T21:24:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/101 "2014-03-16T15:53:29Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Let me also add though that with a repeal of the individual mandate, the law would be successful, because it would achieve Obama’s original vision of health care reform: affordable health care for all, but no one is forced. > > I really don’t see why this would be a problem for liberals. First Congress proved they were unwilling to really enforce the mandate and now the President won’t even go as far as Congress allowed him. Just chuck it. I’m sure at the margins the fact that there’s a mandate written down somewhere that in theory could result in a tax penalty might change some behavior at the margins, but is that extra 1 or 2% covered really worth a hollow law that few respect? Most people don’t care about the mandate – very few people actively don’t want insurance. And as we’ve seen in various state programs, the mandate is necessary to keep the whole program from falling apart. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/102 "2014-03-16T20:36:00Z")
The President says the program is already sustainable despite the fact that only 1 in 10 uninsured have signed up. All the exchanges have proved so far is that people who have insurance want insurance. So if you cause it to be cancelled, they’ll go buy new insurance. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [March 16, 2014, 11:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/103 "2014-03-16T23:56:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The President says the program is already sustainable despite the fact that only 1 in 10 uninsured have signed up. > > All the exchanges have proved so far is that people who have insurance want insurance. So if you cause it to be cancelled, they’ll go buy new insurance. Question, does the one in ten number you use include people who get picked up in the Medicare expansion? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/104 "2014-03-17T00:19:33Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > LOL. Considering the rapid rate of the decline over the last few months, I wonder what you’ll be saying when it gets down to 10%, and then 5%? “That doesn’t count because … hey, look over there!” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/105 "2014-03-17T03:47:10Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > Question, does the one in ten number you use include people who get picked up in the Medicare expansion? No. The survey only counted those who qualified for private plans. However, if the numbers were much better among those eligible for Medicaid, we’d be seeing better numbers than Gallup shows. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/106 "2014-03-17T16:01:37Z")
Would it surprise you to learn [Boehner’s making shit up again?](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/fact-checker/wp/2014/03/17/boehners-claim-that-obamacare-has-resulted-in-a-net-loss-of-people-with-health-insurance/) > [@UseYourFavoriteNickname](#): > > When you look at the 6 million Americans who have lost their policies and some — they claim 4.2 million people who have signed up — I don’t know how many have actually paid for it — that would indicate to me a net loss of people with health insurance. And I actually do believe that to be the case. I’m sure he does believe it. Because belief is the strongest power on Earth, stronger than mere factual reality. Which is: > [@](#): > > So what does this add up to? Taking the lowest-range estimates, we still end up with nearly 9 million people added to the insurance rolls, more than enough to swamp Boehner’s 6 million figure, which as we noted is a pretty useless number to begin with. > •3.4 million — [healthcare.gov](http://healthcare.gov) sign-ups, assuming 80 percent paid, though February > •2.4 million — lowest estimate for new Medicaid enrollment through January > •2.2 million — young adults added to parents’ plans (2010 average to first two quarters of 2013) > •500,000 — off-exchange enrollments > > Charles Gaba, a blogger who has tracked the state-by-state numbers at [ACAsignups.net](http://ACAsignups.net), including known off-exchange enrollments, meanwhile calculates the actual current figure though mid-March at nearly 14 million. Even if you take a conservative estimate for paid plans and reduce the number of young Americans added to plans, you end up with about 13 million. That makes Boehner’s “net loss” claim seem especially absurd. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/107 "2014-03-17T21:09:08Z")
Boehner’s wrong, but so is the 13 million number. Gallup’s numbers would look much better if that many people had gotten insurance. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/108 "2014-03-17T21:10:25Z")
You forgot to link to your cite. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/109 "2014-03-17T21:18:03Z")
It’s in the OP: **The number of uninsured Americans has dropped by three to four million since Obamacare coverage took effect Jan. 1, according to a new Gallup survey** That’s less than 13 million. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/110 "2014-03-17T21:19:32Z")
That’s 3 million to 4 million _since January 1, 2014_ and 13 million to 14 million in the years since the law went into effect. Are you having that much trouble with this? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/111 "2014-03-17T21:21:57Z")
You seem to be. The exchanges weren’t open in the years the law went into effect, neither was the Medicaid expansion. The young going on their parents’ insurance was, so you can have that 2.2 million if you want. Now you’re up to 5 or 6. John Boehner may not be reliable, but you’re trusting Charles Gaba despite not checking his numbers. Why? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/112 "2014-03-17T21:25:47Z")
Because he reported actual numbers. You’re saying “that number can’t be right because I said so.” ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/113 "2014-03-17T21:30:10Z")
No, I’m saying it can’t be right because it conflicts with Gallup. And his numbers come from the government, which has an interest in making the numbers look rosy. Gallup is unbiased. You’re agreeing with it because you want it to be true. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/114 "2014-03-17T21:35:33Z")
The Gallup number only refers to people getting insurance through the exchanges. The larger figure includes the people who have gotten coverage through a variety of other ways, all of which stem from the ACA. This isn’t that complicated, so I suspect you’re “struggling” to understand it because it doesn’t serve your argument. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 10:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/115 "2014-03-17T22:33:34Z")
No, the Gallup number has been used for decades to measure the number of uninsured. That is still what it is measuring. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/116 "2014-03-17T22:56:12Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > No, the Gallup number has been used for decades to measure the number of uninsured. That is still what it is measuring. Can you cite the poll please. I looked at your previous posts and I didn’t find it. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2014, 11:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/117 "2014-03-17T23:15:17Z")
The poll is in the OP and it’s the subject of this thread: [http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/republicans-obamacare-choice](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/republicans-obamacare-choice) TAking another look at the data, it appears there was a big spike in the uninsured in the last quarter of 2013, probably caused by cancellations. If we assume that all of those people got insurance back(and you’d better hope they did if you want to see Obama not be a lame duck after the elections), then Obamacare improved our uninsured rate by 0.4%. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/118 "2014-03-18T00:06:53Z")
That’s some Fox News-worthy math! The “spike” was an increase of 200,000 after a decrease of 1.5 million over a couple of months. If you look at it on a quarter-by-quarter basis that “spike” doesn’t even show up. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/119 "2014-03-18T09:31:07Z")
I’m referring to the spike from 16.3 to 18. A number which equals 5 million people losing their health insurance, which is close to what the media reported in cancellations. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2014, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385/120 "2014-03-18T15:13:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m referring to the spike from 16.3 to 18. A number which equals 5 million people losing their health insurance, which is close to what the media reported in cancellations. I doubt the rise from Q4 2012 to Q3 2013 (16.3% - 18%) account for the cancellations. I was one of the 5 million and like many others, I was automatically enrolled in a new plan and would have never been listed as uninsured. Does Gallup have an explanation for that rise or is that just your analysis? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uninsured-rate-drops-to-lowest-number-since-obama-took-office/683385.md?page=7)