# Unintended consequences of Russian invasions **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Tags:** ukraine-invasion\ **Created:** [February 24, 2022, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065 "2022-02-24T18:12:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![lissener](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lissener/32/6139_2.png) [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/1 "2022-02-24T18:12:27Z")
It’s my understanding that the 1979-1989 Russian invasion of Afghanistan is widely believed to have been a contributing factor in the rise, if not the creation, of Al Qaeda, the Taliban, and eventually ISIS. With the understanding that this is wildly oversimplified and hardly inarguable, does anyone have any predictions as to possible unintended consequences of this current refusal to learn from History? ---
**Author:** ![FrenchDunadan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frenchdunadan/32/5449_2.png) [@FrenchDunadan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FrenchDunadan)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/2 "2022-02-24T18:30:55Z")
You mean after Russia invades and won? Don’t think Putin will occupy all of Ukraine forever. He will probably set in place a puppet government, grab the western part of Lugansk and Donetsk provinces for his flunkies and evacuate most of the troops, trying to minimize his losses. That can change, especially if there is fights in heavy urbanized environment: Stalingrad, Falloudjah, Sarajevo, Alep, Grozny showed that in this case the advantage was for a defender with small groups of high moral and mobility on a terrain they knew well. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/3 "2022-02-24T19:52:08Z")
If I was an entrepreneur in eastern Poland, I’d corner the market on Budweiser and Slim Jims because American troops may well be stationed there for the next 50 years. I hate to praise Boris Johnson for anything but he was right when he said this invasion is going to mean more NATO on Russia’s borders, not less. ---
**Author:** ![lissener](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lissener/32/6139_2.png) [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/4 "2022-02-24T20:12:26Z")
What if–hear me out–a parallel situation occurred wherein a “rebel force” arose that was motivated not by Jihad, but by Democracy? Purely speculative alternate history thought experimenting here. Could we imagine the formation of a violent _progressive_ movement that targets fascist regimes rather than targeting democracies, like the ones we’re already too familiar with? Could we finally see the revolutionary actions eternally promised by progressive navel gazers come to fruition? PURELY un-thought-through shower thought ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/5 "2022-02-24T20:24:03Z")
> [@lissener](#): > > What if–here me out–a parallel situation happened wherein a “rebel force” arise that was motivated not by Jihad, but by Democracy? I think you might have to elevate democracy to a religion (the capital D is a good start) with an afterlife to motivate that kind of fervor. 18th Century American and French republicans started down that path but it kind of fizzled out. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/6 "2022-02-24T20:25:39Z")
It is more compelling to follow a flag that symbolises a free and independent sovereign state that can decide its own future and form government free from foreign domination. What flavour of democracy to have is something that comes later. ---
**Author:** ![filmstar-en](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/50afbb/32.png) [@filmstar-en](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/filmstar-en)\ **Post date:** [February 24, 2022, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/7 "2022-02-24T20:38:02Z")
Struggles for national liberation are much simpler concept than revolutionary movements that want to fundamentally change a political system. The French and Russian revolutions were messy affairs because they could not agree on what what new system they were trying to achieve. Ukraine has a functioning government and a democracy. They have been invaded by Russia and Putin will impose a government that suits him. Something run by reliable strong man who knows how to put down dissent. Some thug like Lukashenko in Belarus. Fighting against that is a pretty uniting concept for a partisan army. ---
**Author:** ![elbows](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b3f665/32.png) [@elbows](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elbows)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2022, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/8 "2022-02-25T01:05:18Z")
I’m more worried about other conflicts while the world turns it’s eyes to Europe. In Africa, SAmerica, Asia, there are strongmen waiting to seize an opportunity such as this, to entrench themselves, to wipeout their inconvenient and uncooperative opponents. This IS how world wars begin. And watching the news, it seems the whole world is a powder keg waiting to blow lately. But, maybe it’s just me. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2022, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/9 "2022-02-25T01:11:34Z")
Well, the biggest unintended consequence is if this goes poorly for the Russians, or even if it goes well but they take a lot of causalities, it could bring Putin and his regime down. Currently, he’s pretty popular, but I don’t think the Russian people are thrilled by their lack of economic progress, and if their military takes a lot of causalities then I think public support could quickly turn. To use the example in the OP, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was a disaster for public moral, and one could argue it contributed to the fall of the Soviet Union. And unintended consequence if there ever was one. Now the fall of the Soviet Union is complex, but it certainly could have contributed. And the fall of Putin, if it happens, will certainly be complex as well…but if this doesn’t turn out well, or the Russians take a lot of casualties or the economic sanctions hit harder than Putin thinks they will, or any number of other consequences he hasn’t foreseen, he and his regime could go down. ---
**Author:** ![Ponderoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponderoid/32/19221_2.png) [@Ponderoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponderoid)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2022, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/10 "2022-02-25T01:22:36Z")
> [@FrenchDunadan](#): > > high moral > [@XT](#): > > public moral [double twitch] The word is _[morale](https://www.merriam-webster.com/words-at-play/moral-vs-morale-difference-usage)_. Seen that same mistake in other threads too lately. ---
**Author:** ![John\_DiFool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_difool/32/19543_2.png) [@John\_DiFool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_DiFool)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2022, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/11 "2022-02-25T01:24:00Z")
I wonder if a faction will launch a coup against Putin. Yeah there may be many reasons why they wouldn’t… I wonder if Lenin would be on his side, or his worst enemy, if he were alive today. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2022, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/12 "2022-02-25T01:30:34Z")
It’s because Apple is ‘helping’ me to spell check everything. At least that’s my excuse. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 25, 2022, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/13 "2022-02-25T14:11:20Z")
> [@lissener](#): > > Could we finally see the revolutionary actions eternally promised by progressive navel gazers come to fruition? Sure, why not? It’s happened before. A critical factor will be how much the movement is supported by the West. I will absolutely pay more tax if that tax is providing Ukrainian guerrillas with weapons. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 8:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/14 "2022-02-26T08:30:12Z")
There is a vast difference between those motivated by a more pleasant afterlife and those who believe that so-called democracy is beneficial in the mortal realm. Unintended consequences? Well, for a start, guarantees from the West have lost a tremendous amount of value. Which implies that countries that may think they have an ally might actually want to develop their own deterrents. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 1:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/15 "2022-02-26T13:09:47Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Well, for a start, guarantees from the West have lost a tremendous amount of value. What guarantee from the West? ---
**Author:** ![FrenchDunadan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frenchdunadan/32/5449_2.png) [@FrenchDunadan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FrenchDunadan)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/16 "2022-02-26T17:55:38Z")
I was using the term in French: no “e” if you speak of fighting spirit. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/17 "2022-02-26T21:01:00Z")
> **[Why Ukraine gave up its nukes](https://www.npr.org/2022/02/21/1082172618/why-ukraine-gave-up-its-nukes)** > > NPR's Mary Louise Kelly talks with Mariana Budjeryn about the Budapest Memorandum, an agreement guaranteeing security for Ukraine if it gave up nuclear weapons left over after the Soviet Union fell. I thought it was common knowledge that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guarantee from the UK and the USA. Well, that was naïve wasn’t it? Just as it was naïve for those in Hong Kong to think that 2047 wouldn’t come ~30 years early. If I were Taiwan I would fast track some nukes or biologicals. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/18 "2022-02-26T21:08:21Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > I thought it was common knowledge that Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for a security guarantee from the UK and the USA. Well, that was naïve wasn’t it? As best I can tell, the US is currently organizing and supplying assistance to Ukraine. It’s not boots on the ground and it’s not nukes, but it’s arguable that that sort of assistance would be more harmful than helpful. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/19 "2022-02-26T21:15:13Z")
Well, it shows that we aren’t about to call a nuclear power’s bluff. Which really ought to worry Taiwan. In my opinion, there were and are zero good military options with former Soviet Republics and Russia. The best course of action _would have been_ to work tirelessly to integrate Russia into the global economy and not exploit them as a foil for the MIC. ---
**Author:** ![lissener](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lissener/32/6139_2.png) [@lissener](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lissener)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2022, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065/20 "2022-02-26T21:18:22Z")
I think it’s worth noting that TFG’s first impeachment was about his blocking of military aid to Ukraine, almost as if he were preparing the way for an invasion by someone whose boots he regularly licks like a tootsie pop. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/unintended-consequences-of-russian-invasions/960065.md?page=2)