# United States and Israel are bombing Iran {for current/ongoing events, past/future have specific threads}

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/united-states-and-israel-are-bombing-iran-for-current-ongoing-events-past-future-have-specific-threads/1028071>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Tags:** trump, iran-strikes-2026\
**Created:** [February 28, 2026, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/united-states-and-israel-are-bombing-iran-for-current-ongoing-events-past-future-have-specific-threads/1028071 "2026-02-28T07:56:16Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 1\
**Showing post:** 214

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**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\
**Post date:** [March 1, 2026, 4:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/united-states-and-israel-are-bombing-iran-for-current-ongoing-events-past-future-have-specific-threads/1028071/214 "2026-03-01T16:08:28Z")

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> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> You keep arguing that there is an amorphous “they” who is ready to stand in succession to the current regime.

There were quite literally _millions_ of Iranians protesting the Regime last month, and many of them were chanting slogans centered around Reza Pahlavi. I get that you want an active and visible opposition leader within the country, and yeah, that would be very helpful, which is why the current regime would execute anyone like that.

> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> The CIA assessed the outcome of an attack, and one of the outcomes they predicted was that the current regime would remain, with new hardliners taking over.

Right, that is in fact the only claim the article makes.

Do you realize how _little_ information that actually is?

What other outcomes did they assess? Did they assess the likelihood of each outcome? Is this particular outcome one they found most likely? Least likey?

The statements made in the article would be equally true if the CIA found it 99.999% likely that the end result is a hardliner or 0.001% likely.

> [@Moriarty](#):
>
> This whole thing started because you said that people who criticized a Canadian- Iranian’s assessment that Iranians were “gaining their freedom” were naive, in that they had just now started to pay attention to events in the country.

And I stand by that, I’m sure the Canadian-Iranian guy knows far more about the conflict.

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