# Univ. of Colorado predicts Romney win by a landslide!! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 24, 2012, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743 "2012-10-24T16:50:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/1 "2012-10-24T16:50:25Z")
[http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/](http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/) Forcasting model developed by to CU Boulder professors has accurately predicted the winner of every POTUS election back to 1980. > [@](#): > > It predicts Romney winning the electoral college by a 320-218 margin and winning 52.9 percent of the popular vote when only the two major parties’ candidates are considered, the Associated Press reported Thursday. Updated model still predicts Romney win: [http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university](http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university) > [@](#): > > According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes – down five votes from their initial prediction – and short of the 270 needed to win. ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/2 "2012-10-24T16:52:30Z")
Everybody, please don’t…you know… ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/3 "2012-10-24T16:53:39Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > [http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/](http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/) > > Forcasting model developed by to CU Boulder professors has accurately predicted the winner of every POTUS election back to 1980. You can’t predict something that already happened- saying a model would have predicted something in the past is meaningless- anyone can come up with a prediction “model” that would have accurately predicted any number of things. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/4 "2012-10-24T16:53:54Z")
Ok, they used an admittedly fictional model to make a ludicrous prediction that absolutely nobody this side of Dick Morris would find plausible. Go Buffaloes! ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/5 "2012-10-24T16:55:57Z")
Ah, a retort to Colorado State’s hurricane prediction center but with isobars around their own anus. ---
**Author:** ![Snowboarder\_Bo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowboarder_bo/32/229_2.png) [@Snowboarder\_Bo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snowboarder_Bo)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/6 "2012-10-24T17:01:40Z")
Didn’t we already do this thread? I feel like I’m having deja vu all over again. ---
**Author:** ![pkbites](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pkbites/32/204_2.png) [@pkbites](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pkbites)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/7 "2012-10-24T17:13:55Z")
Quote: \*According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes – down five votes from their initial prediction – and short of the 270 needed to win. \* I’ve been watching the polls and playing with the electoral calculator on [THIS](http://uselectionatlas.org/) cite for a long time. Romney might very well win but I can’t see any way he is going to take 330 electoral votes. Even if he takes states Obama won like Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, N. Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Florida, and even if he won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to boot, he’d still only have 320. The polls aren’t even close in New Mexico, Minnesota, or Michigan. I don’t know where they’re coming up with those additional 10 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/8 "2012-10-24T17:13:57Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Ok, they used an admittedly fictional model to make a ludicrous prediction that absolutely nobody this side of Dick Morris would find plausible. Go Buffaloes! What is going on with all these predictions so close to Election Day? ---
**Author:** ![lieu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c2a13f/32.png) [@lieu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lieu)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/9 "2012-10-24T17:16:56Z")
I know, let’s jail the scientists responsible! ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/10 "2012-10-24T17:19:50Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > Forcasting model developed by to CU Boulder professors has accurately predicted the winner of every POTUS election back to 1980. How far in advance of each election were the predictions published? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/11 "2012-10-24T17:24:31Z")
Meanwhile, [Reuters predicts an Obama landslide.](http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/23/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121023) > [@](#): > > Obama maintains a larger advantage in the state-by-state battle that will determine the outcome of the election. Ipsos projects that Obama holds an edge in the most hotly contested states, including Florida, Virginia and Ohio, and is likely to win by a relatively comfortable margin of 332 electoral votes to 206 electoral votes. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/12 "2012-10-24T17:25:11Z")
[Earlier Thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=665431&highlight=colorado+elections) – merging this one in will save the trouble of having to rebut the same basic logical and mathematical errors yet again. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/13 "2012-10-24T17:26:03Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > Quote: > \*According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes – down five votes from their initial prediction – and short of the 270 needed to win. \* > I’ve been watching the polls and playing with the electoral calculator on [THIS](http://uselectionatlas.org/) cite for a long time. > > Romney might very well win but I can’t see any way he is going to take 330 electoral votes. Even if he takes states Obama won like Indiana, Iowa, Ohio, N. Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Florida, and even if he won Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to boot, he’d still only have 320. The polls aren’t even close in New Mexico, Minnesota, or Michigan. I don’t know where they’re coming up with those additional 10 electoral votes. Yeah, whatever your politics may be, and whoever you think will/want to win, there’s just no way this prediction makes any sense whatsoever. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/14 "2012-10-24T17:28:23Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > What is going on with all these predictions so close to Election Day? Uh, because that’s when they think people will be interested in the predictions. ---
**Author:** ![AlsoNamedBort](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alsonamedbort/32/3213_2.png) [@AlsoNamedBort](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AlsoNamedBort)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/15 "2012-10-24T17:29:44Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > Didn’t we already do this thread? I feel like I’m having deja vu all over again. I predict that this thread was made before, going back to 1980. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/16 "2012-10-24T17:30:45Z")
> [@pkbites](#): > > Quote: > The polls aren’t even close in New Mexico, Minnesota, or Michigan. See, there’s the thing. The quoted links say they’re specifically ignoring the polls, so they may very well be giving Romney some of those states. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/17 "2012-10-24T17:31:06Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > [Earlier Thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=665431&highlight=colorado+elections) – merging this one in will save the trouble of having to rebut the same basic logical and mathematical errors yet again. I started to merge them, but they’re pretty different. [There is some discussion of the University of Colorado’s model, though.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=15491906#post15491906) ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/18 "2012-10-24T17:35:52Z")
I created a model that correctly predicts every election going back to 1980. The candidate whose first name is closer to A alphabetically wins, unless the Vice Presidential candidate is from Minnesota. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Greenjeans](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.greenjeans/32/551_2.png) [@Mr.Greenjeans](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Greenjeans)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/19 "2012-10-24T17:42:57Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > I created a model that correctly predicts every election going back to 1980. The candidate whose first name is closer to A alphabetically wins, unless the Vice Presidential candidate is from Minnesota. Which proves that Al Gore did actually beat George W. Bush. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/20 "2012-10-24T17:44:43Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Uh, because that’s when they think people will be interested in the predictions. Polls and surveys are not the same as newspaper endorsements, **Marley**. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743.md?page=2)