# Univ. of Colorado predicts Romney win by a landslide!! **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 24, 2012, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743 "2012-10-24T16:50:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/21 "2012-10-24T17:44:54Z")
If the election is decided in the Supreme Court, the Justice with the first name closest to A decides the result. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/22 "2012-10-24T17:51:44Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Polls and surveys are not the same as newspaper endorsements, **Marley**. I didn’t say anything about newspaper endorsements. The thinking is that people will be more interested in predictions as the election approaches. They’re certainly not going to be interested in predictions _after_ the election. That’s it. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/23 "2012-10-24T17:53:58Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Ok, they used an admittedly fictional model to make a ludicrous prediction that absolutely nobody this side of Dick Morris would find plausible. Go Buffaloes! Are you rebuffing the Buffs? ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/24 "2012-10-24T17:54:24Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > The thinking is that people will be more interested in predictions as the election approaches. Likewise, people will be more interested in newspaper endorsements as the election approaches. Excect that a newspaper endorsement is an o_pin_ion whereas a poll or survey ideally isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/25 "2012-10-24T17:55:50Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Are you rebuffing the Buffs? When I get finished with them they won’t know what buffed them! > [@Kozmik](#): > > Likewise, people will be more interested in newspaper endorsements as the election approaches. Excect that a newspaper endorsement is an o_pin_ion whereas a poll or survey ideally isn’t. I have no idea what you’re trying to say (or italicize). You asked why people were making so many predictions close to the election. I said it’s because the people who are creating and publishing these predictions believe interest in those predictions is rising as the election approaches. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/26 "2012-10-24T18:02:21Z")
You can’t predict the past. You can postdict it. They postdict the hell out of it. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/27 "2012-10-24T18:03:11Z")
Bah! We can [construct a model](http://xkcd.com/1122/) that predicts elections all the way back to 1788, at any point in American history! ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/28 "2012-10-24T18:03:24Z")
Relevant[xkcd cartoon](http://xkcd.com/1122/) I’m sure that in the next four years they will modify the model so that it would have predicted a slight win for Obama and then apply this revised model to 2016. I find particularly amusing those people who say that no president since FDR has won re-election with unemployment over 7.2%. Are they really claiming that if unemployment was just a little higher Reagan would have lost to Mondale? ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/29 "2012-10-24T18:17:33Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I said it’s because the people who are creating and publishing these predictions believe interest in those predictions is rising as the election approaches. Predictions are not opinions - they tell who voters will vote for. Newspaper endorsements are opinions - they tell voters who they should vote for. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/30 "2012-10-24T18:19:50Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Predictions are not opinions - they tell who voters will vote for. Newspaper endorsements are opinions - they tell voters who they should vote for. Who or what are you arguing with? ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/31 "2012-10-24T18:20:37Z")
In every election since (at least) 1980, the candidate with the more likeable personality has won (though you need an asterisk next to Bush/Gore). This implies that Obama will win. [I actually believe in this, in that I think it’s worth several points in the polls, which is generally enough to tip the balance.] ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/32 "2012-10-24T18:25:15Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Who or what are you arguing with? This: > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You can’t predict something that already happened- saying a model would have predicted something in the past is meaningless- anyone can come up with a prediction “model” that would have accurately predicted any number of things. These models are faulty, almost meaningless. Other than predictions, voters are interested in newspaper endorsements. (Which is why both appear when Election Day approaches.) However, newspaper endorsements, as a rule, are not wrong while predictions, by their very nature, _can_ be wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/33 "2012-10-24T18:28:18Z")
That has nothing to do with what I was talking about or what you asked me about, but OK. That sure is something. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/34 "2012-10-24T18:40:23Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > This: > > These models are faulty, almost meaningless. Other than predictions, voters are interested in newspaper endorsements. (Which is why both appear when Election Day approaches.) However, newspaper endorsements, as a rule, are not wrong while predictions, by their very nature, _can_ be wrong. I… don’t understand. Do you agree or disagree with what I said? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/35 "2012-10-24T18:41:41Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I… don’t understand. Do you agree or disagree with what I said? Stop pressuring him! ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/36 "2012-10-24T18:42:46Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I… don’t understand. Do you agree or disagree with what I said? I agree with you regarding predictions. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/37 "2012-10-24T19:39:36Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > When I get finished with them they won’t know what buffed them! Very disappointing. Try “When I get finished with them they won’t know what buff-tucked them!” Crude but clever - a difficult combination. ETA: I suddenly have inspiration for the signs I’ll take with me to the Washington-Colorado football and basketball games. I’m sure everyone in Boulder will get a kick out of them. ---
**Author:** ![PandaBear77](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/edb3f5/32.png) [@PandaBear77](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PandaBear77)\ **Post date:** [October 25, 2012, 4:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/38 "2012-10-25T04:04:03Z")
Much as I hope they’re right, I can hardly call 330 a landslide. ---
**Author:** ![Alan\_Smithee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/2acd7d/32.png) [@Alan\_Smithee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alan_Smithee)\ **Post date:** [October 29, 2012, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/39 "2012-10-29T19:20:34Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Are you rebuffing the Buffs? Buff Buffs buffs buff Buffs buffs buff buff buff Buffs buffs. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2012, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743/40 "2012-11-07T07:21:09Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > [http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/](http://dailycaller.com/2012/08/23/university-of-colorado-prediction-model-points-to-big-romney-win/) > > Forcasting model developed by to CU Boulder professors has accurately predicted the winner of every POTUS election back to 1980. > > Updated model still predicts Romney win: [http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university](http://www.colorado.edu/news/releases/2012/10/04/updated-election-forecasting-model-still-points-romney-win-university) [Eyegore] Well they were wrong then weren’t they! [/E] [http://www.pingram.me/p/PN1uP0JZVb/](http://www.pingram.me/p/PN1uP0JZVb/) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/univ-of-colorado-predicts-romney-win-by-a-landslide/638743.md?page=3)