# US assassinates commanding general of Iran Quds force
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [January 3, 2020, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821 "2020-01-03T02:01:17Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 22
### Author:  [@margin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/margin)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/421 "2020-01-06T16:11:26Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#):
>
> I’m somewhat amused by the blatantly doublethinkery behind crediting Trump for the death of Soleimani but not Obama for the death of bin Laden.
If Obama doesn’t get the credit for taking out bin Laden, then Osama shouldn’t be blamed for 9/11. After all, he didn’t even _have_ a pilot’s license.
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/422 "2020-01-06T16:14:20Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> Oil is a fungible commodity. When any global supply is threatened, prices go up for everyone. When gas prices start going up in the US, everyone starts yelling at the President (rightly or wrongly). Therefore a non-trivial part of US foreign policy revolves around the President avoiding getting yelled at by keeping global oil supply as predictable (and ideally as low) as possible.
Then this drone strike on Soleimani makes even less sense by this theory. If Trump wanted to keep oil prices low, he’d stay far away from anything Iran-related. So the oil-war theory does not make sense.
---
### Author:  [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/423 "2020-01-06T16:20:40Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Honestly, I’m at a loss as to why any SDMB board members would think we’re out to eliminate the mullahs. We might get to that point, but do you two honestly believe that US policy?
Neocons have been pushing for “regime change” in Iran for years; John Bolton, for example, before he joined the administration [said](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/trump-says-he-is-not-seeking-regime-change-in-iran/2019/05/27/94d3053a-808d-11e9-933d-7501070ee669_story.html) that “the declared policy of the United States should be the overthrow of the mullahs’ regime in Tehran.” Trump hired him, presumably knowing this. (Yes, Bolton got fired, but he’s [still calling for regime change](https://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/ny-john-bolton-iran-assassination-20200103-6xfsnagacbg5rev7gjilar5iky-story.html), and while he’s gone a lot of people with similar backgrounds and apparent opinions are still in the administration.) Pompeo’s [2018 speech on Iran](https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-trump-administration-calls-on-iranians-to-make-a-choice-about-their-leadership?verso=true) wasn’t exactly far off, e.g.
> [@Velocity](#):
>
> [U.S. oil production has been hitting a high in recent years. America is now the No. 1 domestic oil producing nation in the world](https://www.oilandgas360.com/u-s-oil-sector-sets-another-record-in-another-sign-of-energy-independence/). There is no reason the United States needs a war with Iran for oil, or needs to provoke Iran for oil (how would that even work?)
The US needs global cheap oil to maintain our economic expansion. We still import more than half a million barrels a day [from the Persian Gulf](https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_neti_a_epc0_IMN_mbblpd_m.htm); China, Japan, and the EU get even more. A crisis of supply there imperils the global economy, which will have knock-on effects at home. (We also import another two million or so barrels a day from elsewhere, especially Canada, but if the Persian Gulf supply isn’t available for awhile, we’ll be bidding against the Chinese and Japanese and Europeans for Canadian crude. Remember that from the Canadian perspective, a major advantage of the Keystone XL [‘Export Limited’] pipeline expansion was getting more of their crude to the Gulf export terminals.)
The Iranians likely have the ability to shut off the Persian Gulf supply, at least for awhile, by shutting the Strait of Hormuz (in addition to their attacks on, e.g., Saudi facilities). The Iranians have long regarded oil as a strategic weapon; you’ll remember that their attempts to control Iranian oil triggered the Abadan crisis and the 1953 Iranian coup engineered by the CIA. The US doesn’t want them using their own or other Gulf oil assets strategically.
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### Author:  [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/424 "2020-01-06T16:22:45Z")
> [@Velocity](#):
>
> [U.S. oil production has been hitting a high in recent years. America is now the No. 1 domestic oil producing nation in the world](https://www.oilandgas360.com/u-s-oil-sector-sets-another-record-in-another-sign-of-energy-independence/). There is no reason the United States needs a war with Iran for oil, or needs to provoke Iran for oil (how would that even work?)
Not sure about this being a war for oil, but as to making it work: since we are a big producer, then like Goldfinger one needs to just to remove Iran’s production from the market and then suddenly the oil America can make is worth more. Of course, that reasoning is what a very simple mind like Trump would likely go for.
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### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/425 "2020-01-06T16:25:04Z")
> [@Broomstick](#):
>
> Oh, like bombing Pearl Harbor was Imperial Japan’s show of force to discourage the Americans from getting involved in WWII? How did that work out?
>
> The “message” Iran got from this is that the US now feels it is OK to assassinate whomever they don’t like, wherever they may be. That is _not_ going to lead to submission, quite the contrary.
There has to be a name for this attitude that you speak of - this belief that _“Our side reacts this when X happens, but their side will react the opposite way when X happens.”_ It is an assumption that crops up in relationships, marriages, business, war, politics, etc. etc. It often results in a rude surprise when the other side does not tamely slink away with tail between legs as expected.
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/426 "2020-01-06T16:30:19Z")
> [@adaher](#):
>
> Because the GOP fights, and the Democrats think “smart” diplomacy is letting other countries kill our citizens with impunity.
This is Great Debates, not Jokes And Silliness. This statement is preposterous and beneath you.
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### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/427 "2020-01-06T16:33:22Z")
> [@Velocity](#):
>
> If Trump wanted to keep oil prices low, he’d stay far away from anything Iran-related. So the oil-war theory does not make sense.
The only reason the US is at such odds with Iran is stabilizing oil supply. This is why the US sponsored a coup to overthrow Iran’s democratically elected government in 1953, which is why we’re constantly managing the fact that Iran hates us. Not only that, but Iran is in a huge power rivalry with Saudi Arabia, the other predominant oil producer. This is the main reason we try to keep Iran militarily weak, and stop them from getting a nuclear bomb. The long game is the threat that they represent to the oil supply.
But you’re correct, right now in January 2020, Trump’s current actions are not intended to keep oil prices down. In fact, that’s probably the only thing restraining him. He’s in a trap of his own making. He doesn’t want to look weak, but he also doesn’t want oil prices going up. He also definitely doesn’t want American deaths that would harm his popularity. And he’d find it nicely convenient if a war somehow made the impeachment threat go away.
So yes, Trump is definitely in this war for himself, the same reason he does everything else. But the reason he has this problem, other than shooting himself in the foot, is US fixation on maintaining status quo regarding mideast oil supplies.
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### Author:  [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/428 "2020-01-06T16:35:45Z")
[In how many ways is this crazy?](https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/trump-threatens-to-slap-iraq-with-very-big-sanctions-if-it-kicks-out-u-s-forces)
> [@](#):
>
> After the Iraqi parliament approved a non-binding resolution to remove all foreign troops, including American forces, Trump told reporters that the U.S. would ignore Iraq’s calls for removal due to the “extraordinarily expensive air base that’s there.”
>
> “We’re not leaving unless they pay us back for it,” he said, according to press pool reports. “If they do ask us to leave, if we don’t do it in a very friendly basis, we will charge them sanctions like they’ve never seen before ever.”
>
> “It’ll make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame,” he continued. “If there’s any hostility, that they do anything we think is inappropriate, we are going to put sanctions on Iraq, very big sanctions on Iraq.”
If our puppet doesn’t want to be our puppet anymore, we’ll beat them up and take their lunch money. So if they needed one more reason to throw in with Iran rather than us, we just gave it to them.
And it’s really a footnote, but why do _they_ owe _us_ for the damn airbase? We built it because we invaded, then realized we were stuck with being there for awhile.
Fucker’s crazy. The real reason Trump needs to be removed from office, _stat_, is that we have a crazy fucker running the country, and he’s destabilizing random parts of the world.
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### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/429 "2020-01-06T16:39:35Z")
And, [the Pentagon Chief of Staff just resigned](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46773138), being “the third senior Pentagon official to announce his resignation since President Donald Trump announced US forces would leave Syria”.
If you guys think Trump is on the right track, you have to wonder why your opinions are at odds with US top military commanders.
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### Author:  [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/430 "2020-01-06T16:42:00Z")
> [@slash2k](#):
>
> The Iranians likely have the ability to shut off the Persian Gulf supply, at least for awhile, by shutting the Strait of Hormuz (in addition to their attacks on, e.g., Saudi facilities).
As pointed out [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJ6Tzij-Pbs) - can’t give an exact timestamp ATM, sorry! - Iran could smash not only the oil infrastructure of its foes across the Persian Gulf, but their desalination plants as well.
Going by Dolan’s analysis, this’d be pretty much a checkmate move as far as the Gulf States are concerned, and the Americans would be forced to run a “24/7 Berlin airlift” of freshwater just to keep their cities liveable.
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### Author:  [@Jasmine](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jasmine)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/431 "2020-01-06T16:42:52Z")
1. Iraqi parliament votes to expel U.S. troops.
2. Trump threatens Iraq in return.
3. Iran states that it is backing out of its nuclear agreement due to U.S. aggression.
4. U.S. allies remain totally mum and offer zero words of support for our actions.
Stay tuned.
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### Author:  [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/432 "2020-01-06T16:43:55Z")
Interesting tweet thread by [Reza Marashi](https://www.niacouncil.org/author/reza/), Research Director for the National Iranian American Council. Any **emphasis** are mine:
> [@](#):
>
> THREAD: Over the past few days, I’ve spoken extensively with career U.S. government officials as they’ve worked around the clock to try and mitigate the damage from Trump’s ineptitude on Iran. With their permission, I’m sharing a small taste from our lengthy conversations. Enjoy.
>
> “We have no functional national security decision-making process in place. We have no plan for what comes next. They are woefully unprepared for what’s about to pop off, and they’re too stupid to realize it. People here are freaking out, and rightfully so.”
>
> “We’re still trying to dig out from underneath the last war of choice, and now they’re trying to start a new one. I finally cracked open the bottle of scotch you gave me that I’ve been keeping stashed away in my desk drawer.”
>
> “I’m gonna call you later tonight to talk through this so I can go into meetings tomorrow armed with some sane talking points to insert into this clusterfuck.”
>
> “ **When did most of us find out about killing Soleimani? After it already happened.** Since then, we’ve been trying to cobble together contingency planning on the fly, but these charlatans ignore most of it, and then Trump does more stupid shit that puts us back at square one.”
>
> “All Trump cares about is shitting on Obama’s legacy, sucking up to donors, and distracting from impeachment. **None of this is about American interests or security. He’s surrounded by ideological lunatic sycophants like Pence and Pompeo. But they’re far from the only ones.** ”
>
> “ **So many of Trump’s top advisors on Iran are military vets who served multiple tours of duty in our wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and elsewhere. They believe to their core that Iran is the reason why they lost those wars, and they’re dead set on payback - no matter what it takes.** ”
>
> “They’ve been pushing to kill Soleimani for years, and they finally baited Trump into it. They think war with Iran is long overdue, so for them, this was a means to an end. **When Iran responds, they’ll tell Trump to hit the Iranians harder.** You see where this could go.”
>
> “They know the Iraqis are gonna kick them out now, so they’re gonna try to kill as many as possible on their way out. Iranians, Iraqis, whoever. _ **Some of them are advising Trump to tell the Iraqi government to fuck off and dare them to make us leave** _\*. I shit you not. Insanity.”
>
> “When I used your points about Soleimani’s murder being a catalyst for Iranians to rally around the flag, they said that was ‘Obama apologist bullshit,’ and the Soviet Union forced people against their will into public displays of support. So apparently Iran is a superpower now.”
>
> “Trump is threatening war crimes against Iran, and none of his top advisors have the courage to publicly oppose it. Instead, they act like cowards and go on background with journalists to express their opposition. They should all resign. They don’t deserve to serve this country.”
>
> “We have friends that are getting deployed into war zones, but for what? **Trump has deployed 14,000 troops over the past 6 months, and it didn’t prevent the current crisis.** At what point do we start asking whether deploying troops is part of the problem rather than the solution?”
>
> “The scariest part is that they’re just making shit up to justify their preferred course of action. When we point out inaccuracies or question logic, we’re at best yelled at or at worst cut out of the process. Most of the political appointees are paranoid, unqualified, or both.”
>
> “Last year, if you would’ve asked me whether American institutions are durable enough to prevent a Trump-led war with Iran, I would’ve said absolutely. Today, I’m not so sure. For as bad as it looks to you all on the outside, it’s even worse when you see it from the inside.”
>
> “One of Trump’s top Iran advisors got suckered into a honey trap, had their laptop/iPhone stolen and hacked before they woke up, and the White House refused to take precautionary measures regarding their security clearance. Ladies and gents, I give you the Trump administration.”
>
> In conclusion: Yes, folks. It really is that bad. I am but a humble messenger of truth. The voice of the voiceless. That is all. You may now return to your regularly scheduled programming.
Full thread here: [https://twitter.com/rezamarashi/status/1214031171434102784](https://twitter.com/rezamarashi/status/1214031171434102784)
And, if I may, let me repeat this one:
**“One of Trump’s top Iran advisors got suckered into a honey trap, had their laptop/iPhone stolen and hacked before they woke up, and the White House refused to take precautionary measures regarding their security clearance. Ladies and gents, I give you the Trump administration.”**
- This has already come to pass in the 16-odd hours since this went up. See RTF’s post right above.
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### Author:  [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 4:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/433 "2020-01-06T16:57:31Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> If that’s the case, then I would suggest that discussions of the military’s competence are just a distraction here. We’re now talking about throwing the military into yet ANOTHER war in which it’s likely not the best tool to achieve the underlying geopolitical goals. I don’t see what point it serves to pound the table about “actually our military is very good”.
Someone upthread had made some kind of comment about how “Iran’s military is not to be trifled with” or something like that. Which is sort of absurd when you look at it from the perspective of the US military- they’re not China, the UK, France, Russia, or Germany. They’re a third-tier military power- maybe the top of that tier, but not really on par with a lot of other nations, never mind the US.
That’s what I was responding to, and got a lot of flak about how our military hasn’t won wars lately, etc…
Ultimately, our military outclasses theirs dramatically. But the question remains- why fight? There’s nothing for either side to gain by fighting. That’s why it’s such a political failure IMO.
---
### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/434 "2020-01-06T17:13:28Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> And, [the Pentagon Chief of Staff just resigned](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-46773138), being “the third senior Pentagon official to announce his resignation since President Donald Trump announced US forces would leave Syria”.
>
> If you guys think Trump is on the right track, you have to wonder why your opinions are at odds with US top military commanders.
There’s been more than 3. The BBC must be defining “senior” a little more tightly than American sources.
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### Author:  [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/435 "2020-01-06T17:20:06Z")
> [@Asuka](#):
>
> I’m seeing a lot of people on twitter and other places legitimately being afraid that this now means Iran is going to nuke Washington D.C. within the next few months, which seems like maybe we should be more tough on Iran if they’re willing to just nuke cities all willy-nilly.
> [@Asuka](#):
>
> Would Iran nuking the United States in return for this be a justified response as I’m seeing twitter claim? And how Europe wouldn’t shed a tear?
People say random, often foolish, usually over-reactionary things on twitter.
---
### Author:  [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/436 "2020-01-06T17:25:12Z")
> [@bump](#):
>
> Someone upthread had made some kind of comment about how “Iran’s military is not to be trifled with” or something like that. Which is sort of absurd when you look at it from the perspective of the US military- they’re not China, the UK, France, Russia, or Germany. They’re a third-tier military power- maybe the top of that tier, but not really on par with a lot of other nations, never mind the US.
That’s a fair enough observation, but it must be said that the definition of “formidable” depends on the stakes. Iran can’t win, but it has sophisticated Russian air defense systems, some sophisticated anti-ship missile technology. It could achieve PR victories like downing stealth aircraft, capturing crews… a 2004 military exercise determined that Iran could sink an aircraft carrier, which would be enormously costly to the US. Even a tiny nation like Serbia was able to down a US stealth bomber in 1999, thanks to Russian intel and equipment.
So the point isn’t that Iran is formidable enough to fight the US to defeat or even to a stalemate, but they are formidable enough to make this a lot more painful than (say) the Iraq conflict was.
---
### Author:  [@QuickSilver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/QuickSilver)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/437 "2020-01-06T17:42:08Z")
Iranian leadership is not stupid. They will not do anything so dumb as to invite a war and wholesale destruction to their country by having its entire infrastructure and government crippled and 10’s of thousands of people killed, just to ‘sucker’ the US into another Afghanistan/Iraq ‘regime change’ situation. So no, Iran will not use its military in an overtly confrontational way against the US or regional allies. They will do nothing of the kind, unless and until, they have a formidable working nuclear arsenal with which to threaten the US and Israel and western allies. In the meantime, the world can expect a rise in Iranian backed proxy terrorism attacks. In short, more of what they’ve already been doing but renewed vigor.
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### Author:  [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/438 "2020-01-06T18:04:18Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> So the point isn’t that Iran is formidable enough to fight the US to defeat or even to a stalemate, but they are formidable enough to make this a lot more painful than (say) the Iraq conflict was.
Definitely. But it runs both ways; they’d almost certainly get their own ration of pain as well; last time their navy tangled with ours, we sank or crippled half of their navy in one day.
There’s not a lot of credible rationale for going to war on either side, even a naval/air war (which any conceivable war would almost certainly be), much less a ground war.
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### Author:  [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 6:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/439 "2020-01-06T18:07:44Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#):
>
> That’s a fair enough observation, but it must be said that the definition of “formidable” depends on the stakes. Iran can’t win, but it has sophisticated Russian air defense systems, some sophisticated anti-ship missile technology. It could achieve PR victories like downing stealth aircraft, capturing crews… a 2004 military exercise determined that Iran could sink an aircraft carrier, which would be enormously costly to the US. Even a tiny nation like Serbia was able to down a US stealth bomber in 1999, thanks to Russian intel and equipment.
>
> So the point isn’t that Iran is formidable enough to fight the US to defeat or even to a stalemate, but they are formidable enough to make this a lot more painful than (say) the Iraq conflict was.
And that’s only discussing their potential against hard military targets.
We have to remember that there are an awful lot of softer, non-military targets they could also attack, such as oil infrastructure, that would have a huge impact on the region, and the world. If the US launches an assault large enough to seriously degrade Iran’s capabilities, then Iran will be in a use-it-or-lose-it situation. There would be no reason for them _not_ to launch every missile they have at every single soft target they can reach. And there’s no way we’d shoot all of them down.
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### Author:  [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)
#### Post date: [January 6, 2020, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-assassinates-commanding-general-of-iran-quds-force/845821/440 "2020-01-06T18:14:38Z")
> [@bump](#):
>
> Someone upthread had made some kind of comment about how “Iran’s military is not to be trifled with” or something like that. Which is sort of absurd when you look at it from the perspective of the US military- they’re not China, the UK, France, Russia, or Germany. They’re a third-tier military power- maybe the top of that tier, but not really on par with a lot of other nations, never mind the US.
>
> That’s what I was responding to, and got a lot of flak about how our military hasn’t won wars lately, etc…
>
> Ultimately, our military outclasses theirs dramatically. But the question remains- why fight? There’s nothing for either side to gain by fighting. That’s why it’s such a political failure IMO.
Agree with you, but more to the point, it doesn’t work like that anymore. It took, what, three weeks for our military to beat Saddam’s in March/April 2003. Lot of good it did us.
We still need a conventional military, but as **HMS Irruncible** and others\* have said in this thread, it’s more often than not the wrong tool for the sorts of conflicts we actually have nowadays.
- Quite possibly including you - I won’t say I’ve read every post in the thread. Apologies if you’ve already said this and I’ve overlooked it.
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