Iran isn’t looking for mere “revenge.” They’re looking for a form of revenge from which they’ll benefit on a deeper strategic level. From that point of view, a random “terrorist” attack, inside or outside of the US, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Turning the entirety of the Iraqi polity well and truly against the American presence (and more firmly into the Iranian fold), however, does.
All sorts of possibilities. Possibly we bomb their capital and smash their military, and leave no Boots On The Ground, and someone else then — well, no, doesn’t come to their aid, but instead puts Boots On The Ground to attack them. You know, because their military has been smashed, like I was just saying. Possibly we bomb their capital and smash their military, and leave no Boots On The Ground — and, as you say, they “come back from this”, at which point we say, ‘look, here’s what we want; do it or we’ll, y’know, bomb your capital and smash your military’. And so on.
If we can explain that to them before we actually start bombing their capital and smashing their military, then maybe we can give them that choice and get the right answer from them without actually bothering to bomb their capital and smash their military; I think that’d be even better, since I’m not thinking of the satisfaction I’d get from watching this on the teevee, but of what we’d get out of this. But if they pick Option B, then maybe we shrug and oblige them once every five years or whatever — with no Boots On The Ground — until they pick Option A.
I think this is among the most accurate posts so far – nice job.
Iran probably wasn’t expecting this kind of escalation. I would agree with Trump’s supporters (or those who thought this was a good move) that this was a big blow and that this will sting Iran hard – in the short term. But Iran what makes Iran dangerous right now isn’t simply the fact that they’re pissed off at us for such an escalation; they’re more than pissed, they’re pissed and they’re also extremely alarmed, because they have every reason to believe that the US wants a war and wants a regime change and that there’s no exit ramp. That makes Iran dangerous.
They won’t necessarily attack American cities – not yet. But they are going to be ruthlessly going after Americans pretty much anywhere they exist outside of the homeland. I doubt they go after civilians primarily; they’d probably prefer hitting us where it hurts, like near American military bases or places where American diplomats or national security personnel might congregate. Maybe an odd German or Italian night club here and there where American officials are known to party - that sorta thing. Contrary to what they say about making things more stable, Trump and his boot lickers have really jeopardized the safety of Americans pretty much everywhere, especially the safety of the troops whom they use as props for their jingoistic circle jerks.
Christ, it’s really sad that there are probably millions of people who believe in this sort of nonsense. The above is nothing but Hollywood “USA! USA!” Die Hard fantasy.
Look, Iran has been preparing itself for war with the United States for 40 years. It’s not like they haven’t considered carpet bombing a possibility. They’ve been preparing for war with the Great Satan knowing all the while that we have thousands of nuclear weapons to their none. Any attempt to carpet bomb Iran would very likely be countered with a very nasty surprise that most Americans are in no way prepared for.
And besides, When will we ever learn that bombing the hell out of an adversary is not necessarily a recipe for victory. We dropped an incredible amount of ordnance in SE Asia and not only did we not stop communism, we actually helped unite people against the US and aided its spread. Even if we succeeded in wiping Iran off the map, it would probably inspire waves of terrorism that would make 9/11 look insignificant by comparison. All of this talk about crushing Tehran is dumb - that’s not the direction we want to go in and we should stop fantasizing about it.
Iran’s end game, like Russia’s, Syria’s, China’s, North Korea’s, is to weaken America’s influence, and one way to do that is to make America a toxic presence.
And first to be made ‘toxic’ will be Trump properties around the globe. How long before a Trump hotel is hit? And the necessary security presence and precautions will make staying there like a visit to Guantanamo. Who in their right mind would want to go there? Of course all this will cause Trump to lose money and who knows what he’ll do then.
You tell me. Draw up a list of what they can do for us; make it so onerous that it’d make sense for them to say, no, it’d be preferable for our military to be smashed and our capital to be bombed. And then draw up a more reasonable list, such that it’d make sense for them to say okay, it’d be worse for our military to be smashed and our capital to be bombed. And then put aside the first list.
No, you tell me. This is your war fantasy, not mine. What benefit does the US attain from smashing the Iranian army & navy, apart from the satisfaction of having done that? What do we get for that cost?
You really seem to be avoiding answering that question. Is it because all the rationalizations are weak and you’d rather not talk about them?
Gotta say, mentally building a list of the top 52 American “cultural” and “historic” locations for terrorist attacks is kind of difficult given the vast number of targets. For example is an Amazon server farm more of a “cultural” artifact than Disneyland? If I poison the city of Louisville’s water supply, does that even count to the 52?
So, so nice we have a President where this is not merely a cynical thought exercise, but rather a response to his stated policy goals. Good going, 2016 Trump voters, every single one of you.
You wrote: “make no mistake, every US war will now feature a Fox News phase with 1-2 months of spectacular destruction which America will surely triumph”. (Likewise, Sam Stone, in apparent agreement, wrote: “The U.S. military can stomp any other military on the planet into dust. There is absolutely no question about that. If Iran were foolish enough to start a full-scale war with the U.S., its military would cease to exist as a fighting force within days.” And, in reply to bump, you wrote: “you’ve reinforced my statement that the US wins in the short, kinetic timeframe.”
I didn’t bring that up; I’m responding to it. I figured it was situated in a scenario where we have something to gain by smashing their military and doing what you referred to as “spectacular destruction”, and I figured your objection was that we’d then be in big trouble because triumphing at that first part is comparatively easy and losing the second part is, sadly, what happens all too often when we then try for some kind of plan involving, y’know, Boots On The Ground.
If there isn’t a list of stuff we want from Iran and can get by smashing their military and bombing their capital, or by pointing out that we can do that, then, sure, my advice is: don’t bother to smash their military and bomb their capital. If this whole discussion wasn’t taking place in some preexisting context of “here’s what we want; how can we get it?” — well, then, hey, all apologies.
Even if the resolution is non-binding, the our justification for our continued existence in Iraq is pretty badly weakened.
“We can help you fight ISIS.”
The guy we took out was widely regarded by Iraqis as one of the leading – maybe the leading – anti-ISIS organizers. And let’s not forget how we stabbed the Kurds in the back. Nor should we forget that we continue to support the regime most responsible for the export of radical Sunni ideology worldwide, despite its repeated and obvious war crimes in the regime. That rationale is looking pretty weak now.
And JohnT’s right: Trump is Putin’s little puppet.