# US General uses "V" word in Afghan War - Only 4 US Combat Deaths since Jan 1. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 10, 2013, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554 "2013-03-10T14:23:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2013, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/101 "2013-03-12T19:59:03Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > John Mace here has pointed out a huge difference between Vietnam and Afghanistan, while not being surprised, he says, if Kabul were to end up being another fallen City like Saigon. I think I see your problem here. You’re confusing his reply to an entirely different poster linking a video of the fall of Saigon with something I actually wrote. If you’ll go back and look, the only manner in which I’ve compared Afghanistan to Vietnam is to point out the absurdity of your using US combat deaths as a metric of victory. We’re in the process of leaving Afghanistan; it’s not surprising that casualties are dropping. As I said, US combat casualties were reaching all time lows in 1972, but it wasn’t because we were achieving victory, it was because we were leaving. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2013, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/102 "2013-03-12T20:58:38Z")
> [@](#): > > “In the end ‘our side’ remains the northern warlords. They are simply grabbing whatever isn’t nailed down and stashing it away against the inevitable day it all goes tits up.” -Tagos #088 Today, 08:09 AM Who was it that demanded this in post #091 at 10:17 AM This morning? > [@](#): > > “Come back with cite backed reasoned arguments informed by a knowledge of Afghan history and culture.” Do you have names? Is it Abdul Rashid Dostum? > **[Abdul Rashid Dostum](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Rashid_Dostum#section_4)** > > This is an accepted version of this page > > Abdul Rashid Dostum (/ˈɑːbdəl rəˈʃiːd doʊˈstuːm/ ⓘ AHB-dəl rə-SHEED doh-STOOM; Dari: عبدالرشید دوستم; Uzbek Latin: Abdurrashid Do'stum, Uzbek Cyrillic: Абдуррашид Дўстум, .mw-parser-output .IPA-label-small{font-size:85%}.mw-parser-output .references .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .infobox .IPA-label-small,.mw-parser-output .navbox .IPA-label-small{font-size:100%}IPA: \[ˈæbdurræˈʃid dosˈtum\]; born 25 March 1954) is an Afghan former military officer, w... Is it Gul Agha Sherazai? Anyway here is a good link on the topic of Hybrid Governance; a pragmatic perspectin. > **[warlords\_as\_bureaucrats.pdf](https://carnegie-production-assets.s3.amazonaws.com/static/files/warlords_as_bureaucrats.pdf)** > > 285.66 KB Could we see a link to what you seem to be most well up on? ---
**Author:** ![CoolHandCox](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/coolhandcox/32/16233_2.png) [@CoolHandCox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CoolHandCox)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2013, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/103 "2013-03-12T21:10:43Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > First, those pictures mean absolutely nothing. They are anecdotes. > > Secondly, I was making a joke about the life expectancy. Look at the people in those pictures. You don’t need to know what the life expectancy is or was to know that most of them are dead. > > I think it takes a long time to change those things. At least a generation or two. We won’t be around long enough to protect Karzai and his cronies until that happens. Gotcha, didn’t make the connection about the joke. However, it doesn’t take long to change life expectancy; that’s easy. But I’m guessing you’re referring to literacy, woman voting, ect. I agree those are generational changes (teach the young, wait for the old to die). Let’s take women voting. Or even forget voting, just letting women have a voice to speak out without repercussions. I have to believe you think that’s something every woman should have and I think that’s a right you’re born with, not something that’s given to you by anyone. So I guess I don’t get it. We spent decades in Germany and Japan after WWII for reconstruction. I think we could be around long enough if we wanted. I suppose the odds of success are too low and the cost too great. I guess I just think it’s a shame we can’t do more or that people think what we are doing is in vain. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2013, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/104 "2013-03-12T21:50:36Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > You’re shitting me, right? US combat casualties in Vietnam were reaching all time lows in 1972 _because we were leaving and had ceased conducting aggressive combat operations_ and were handing the war over to the ARVN. Do I need to remind you what happened to the Republic of Vietnam over the next three years? #002 03-10-2013, 11:04 AM > [@](#): > > by Dissonance today 03:59 PM: "If you’ll go back and look, the only manner in which I’ve compared Afghanistan to Vietnam is to point out the absurdity of your using US combat deaths as a metric of victory. We’re in the process of leaving Afghanistan; it’s not surprising that casualties are dropping. As I said, US combat casualties were reaching all time lows in 1972, but it wasn’t because we were achieving victory, it was because we were leaving. Forgive me if I continue to miss the validity of today’s 03:59 pm assessment from you of the absurdity of using US combat deaths as a metric of victory, which I most certainly did not do. And I will admit misunderstanding your original expletive-non-deleted (I don’t mind some good cussin’) if you are telling me that you are suggesting there are no deductive or conclusive correlation between the reduction of combat deaths in Vietnam at the end and the same thing going on now in Afghanistan because they are distinctly different wars. Is that what you are saying? Since I did not write that we are achieving victory because US combat fatalities have been trending down, it is not absurd or shitting you to define victory by the metric than General Allen clearly said? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/105 "2013-03-13T02:35:33Z")
> [@](#): > > High rates of desertion and low rates of reenlistment mean the army needs to replace about a third of its force each year. -posted by Tagos #053 03-11-2013 10:25 AM 070a1025 That would mean that there are 67% that are an effective enough fighting and policing force to have taken the lead in most of Afghanistan and will take full control by this summer. General Joseph Dunford also speaks (below) to the issues and problems with the Afghan Security Forces but advises that the past few years was getting the structure in place in place and the next few years will be getting the quality in place. I believe they have targeted the 400,000 (Army and Police) number full well knowing that 300,000 will be required to keep the Taliban limited to hit and run suicide bombings and limited IED planting after 2014, so the concerns about replacing a third each year is most likely taken into account. I also don’t know what the ‘replacement’ rate is for most armies. When people serve for two or four years of course there is a replacement rate. When the foreign forces are gone, except for special forces and trainers, there will be the advantage that joining the Afghan Army and Police will not be construed as working with the occupiers. The Taliban’s main propaganda theme has been that they are fighting foreign forces. As the Afghans stand on their own, that propaganda theme dies. The Taliban will have to recruit on the basis of fighting Afghans and fellow Muslims. That is not appealing to Muslims. > [@](#): > > [http://www.isaf.nato.int/article/isaf-releases/transcript-from-comisaf-press-conference-with-pentagon-press-corps.html](http://www.isaf.nato.int/article/isaf-releases/transcript-from-comisaf-press-conference-with-pentagon-press-corps.html) > News Conference Transcript General Joseph F. Dunford, Commander International Security Assistance Force; March 10, 2013 > > GENERAL JOSEPH F. DUNFORD: And, you know, there’s a lot of issues that people bring up with the Afghan Security Forces and my basic framework is this, while we have challenges, literacy is a challenge, logistics are challenges, there are systems, institutions and processes that after all will be developed. > > We have focused, I think fair to say over the last few years on growing the quantity of the Afghan forces. We now have the structure in place and what the next several years are all about is improving the quality of the force. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/106 "2013-03-13T03:01:30Z")
> [@CoolHandCox](#): > > However, it doesn’t take long to change life expectancy; that’s easy. But I’m guessing you’re referring to literacy, woman voting, ect. I agree those are generational changes (teach the young, wait for the old to die). The poster was claiming that Afghanistan was a “modern society”. The point about literacy rates pretty much puts that BS to rest. > [@](#): > > Let’s take women voting. Or even forget voting, just letting women have a voice to speak out without repercussions. I have to believe you think that’s something every woman should have and I think that’s a right you’re born with, not something that’s given to you by anyone. So I guess I don’t get it. We spent decades in Germany and Japan after WWII for reconstruction. I think we could be around long enough if we wanted. I suppose the odds of success are too low and the cost too great. I guess I just think it’s a shame we can’t do more or that people think what we are doing is in vain. We’re not going to treat Afghanistan like Japan or Germany. Furthermore, those countries actually were “modern societies” with a populace that had a sense of being a nation. Afghanistan is a tribal society, and it’s got a long way to go the become “modern”. A few pretty pictures on the internet notwithstanding. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/107 "2013-03-13T06:25:26Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > The poster was claiming that Afghanistan was a “modern society”. The point about literacy rates pretty much puts that BS to rest. - Yesterday 11:01 PM 071p1101 If you are referring to me as the poster. That is completely false. I did not claim that Afghanistan was a ‘modern society’ so you need to put that BS to rest. I said there was a time, a precedent if you will, that shows that Afghans have ‘capacity and precedent’ … **TO RISE ABOVE TRIBALISM** … Key words there being 'rise above tribalism because that indicates that tribalism has always been a part of Afghan Society. > [@](#): > > The history and reality of tribalism, however does not negate that the people of Afghanistan have capacity and precedent to rise above tribalism and seek to join the modern civilized world. -Ntfldbw #092 03-12-2013 01:51 PM 071p0151.b Hopefully John Mace can get cleared up on that, and quit posting claims that I have stated something which I did not do. And there is this exchange: > [@](#): > > No. For starters, you could spell out what you are trying debate. We still don’t know. - Originally Posted by John Mace (Post 16088866) To which Tagos replied: > [@](#): > > I’ll give it a go. The 200,000 ‘army’ with its 33% annual churn makes the ARVN look like the Roman Legions. What morale it has will collapse at the first shove. Most are loyal primarily to tribe and clan and will switch sides when their clan leaders switch, which this being Afghanistan and all, they will as soon as they think something is in it for them. -Tagos #086 03-12-2013 06:36 AM 071a0636.a We need some fact checking here. What is the “first shove” and when is the “first shove” expected to happen in your best estimation? When you say ‘most’ as in “Most are loyal primarily to tribe and clan” - where is the data we can see on that? > [@](#): > > A large but unknown % of the army and police are Taliban anyway and more will become so as what little check on the northern warlord’s rampant violence, greed and corruption packs up and goes home. -Tagos #086 03-12-2013 06:36 AM 071a0636.b This is ripe! If the percent of army and police are Taliban but you admit that it is unknown, how do you know it is ‘large’ ? And you may need to rewrite or explain better what the rest of your statement’s intent might be. And you know the following how? > [@](#): > > Meanwhile the ordinary people, yearning for peace, stability and justice will grow in sympathy for the Taliban and hark back to the ‘good old days’ when women were kept in their place and the local police didn’t spend their time raping little boys and shaking them down. -Tagos #086 03-12-2013 06:36 AM 071a0636.c The highest estimate I’ve seen for the total peak of Taliban leaders and fighters was at 40,000. My point that the past few years the ‘ordinary people’ have put their daughters in school in defiance of one the Taliban’s most ardent Islamic laws in thier version, will most likely buffer any sympathy the ordinary people have for settling with a resumption of Taliban rule as it was in 2001. > [@](#): > > US Special Forces will not be able to prop up the Northern Alliance warlords on their own. Nor will the political will to have them do so be present, the endgame for the US being the same as for Vietnam - get out and pray that a decent interval passes before the whole deck of cards collapses. -Tagos #086 03-12-2013 06:36 AM 071a0636.d What do you mean by propping up the Northern Alliance Warlords? I do not think you are aware of the “Special Force-ization” of the Afghanistan War which, David Acx on DangerZone a war reporter quotes a Green Beret Special Forces officer he calls Tom, who says, _"Special Forces pride themselves in their ability to work within any culture. They blend in, live off the land, learn the local languages and customs, forge unlikely alliances and adapt, endlessly adapt, in pursuit of subtle strategic goals. “We’re problem-solvers,”_ I don’t know what evidence you have that NATO Special Forces will need to prop up Northern Alliance warlords, so maybe you can explain what or whom you are talking about. > [@](#): > > Now will they stop an increasing wave of suicide bombers in major cities from killing with near impunity. -Tagos #086 03-12-2013 06:36 AM 071a0636.e Suicide bombing will go on for some time until they burn out on it. But 10,000 to 20,000 Special Forces and trainers will not be in numbers seen by a population of 25 million to need to be gone if the Afghan Central Government needs them to stay. If they don’t need them to stay, that is even better. > [@](#): > > Within 18 months Karzai and his alliance of corrupt monsters and looters will look at the slow motion collapse of the army and government, take the what remains of the national treasury and relocate to their globe-spanning empire of mansions and secret bank accounts. -Tagos #086 03-12-2013 06:36 AM 071a0636.f Within 18 months of what date? And can you explain how Karzai out of office and out of Afghanistan I would presume is beyond the reach of international law? And why no NATO nation specifically would not be interested in going after him or any other who embezzled money from the Government they led. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 9:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/108 "2013-03-13T09:54:51Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Who was it that demanded this in post #091 at 10:17 AM This morning? > > Do you have names? > > Is it Abdul Rashid Dostum? > [Abdul Rashid Dostum - Wikipedia](http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abdul_Rashid_Dostum#section_4) > > Is it Gul Agha Sherazai? > Anyway here is a good link on the topic of Hybrid Governance; a pragmatic perspectin. > > [http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/warlords\_as\_bureaucrats.pdf](http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/warlords_as_bureaucrats.pdf) > Could we see a link to what you seem to be most well up on? I’ve been keeping up on the history of Afghanistan for 37 years. If you want ot be informed you need to read a hell of a lot more than the clearly maintained wiki page. I can’t believe you seriously offered that as a cite. I mean - seriously - that’s your proof that Afghanistan is hunky dory? How about the [Bank of Kabul?](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/nov/28/afghan-elite-ransacked-kabul-bank). But as an Afghan expert I’m sure you have been following it closely. You’ll have noted then that no one was seriously held accountable. > [@](#): > > Afghan elite ransacked $900m from Kabul Bank, inquiry finds. > > The report found Kabul Bank was in effect run as a vast and lucrative Ponzi scheme, where deposits were stolen instead of being invested. But it was ensconced in the heart of Kabul’s financial and political elite, with connections that helped delay investigations into the true state of its finances. Once the scale of the fraud became known, “political interference” also stalled efforts to prosecute those responsible and recover stolen cash. You are of course familiar with routine stories like [this](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-19983266). > [@](#): > > In one district, Khojaye Ghor, the irrigation canals have dried up completely and crops are failing - hundreds of families have had to abandon their homes in search of water. > > The explanation lies upstream. > > “Some powerful and armed people… diverted our river to power their hydro-electric generators,” one local farmer, Muhammad Sharif, complains. > > One of them is Mr Aghagul Qataghany, he says - a former mujahideen commander, now mayor of Taloqan, the capital of Takhar province. > > \ > > Heather Barr, of Human Rights Watch in Kabul, says it’s the same in many rural areas across the country. > > “The government and international community have empowered these commanders and their groups by giving them more control in rural areas and turning them into anti-Taliban militia forces, or local police,” explains Heather Barr. > > “The country is being left to these people.” > > Critics say the national government is turning a blind eye to these problems. > > “Many warlords or armed commanders are in the government and they are very powerful and in provinces it’s their men who are in control,” says Bilqis Roshan, a senator from Farah province. > > “I know cases of rape and murder but those who committed these crimes are still at large simply because they are powerful commanders or have links to them.” > [@](#): > > Then there is the delightful [Vice President Fahim](http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/the-warlords-casting-a-shadow-over-afghanistan-1682660.html) > > At the time Zardad was torturing and killing at his much-feared checkpoint at Sarobi on the Kabul-Kandahar road in 1992-96, he was a valued military commander in the forces of Gulbuddin Hekmetyar, the leader of the fundamentalist Hizb-e-Islami party. > > Rockets and shells fired into Kabul by Hekmetyar’s soldiers devastated the city and killed thousands of people before it was captured by the Taliban. More recently, Hekmetyar’s forces, who are particularly strong in Logar province just south of the capital, have been fighting as allies of the Taliban. > > But in the latest twist in Afghan politics, in which leaders switch sides and betray each other as swiftly as any English duke in the Wars of the Roses, Hekmetyar is reportedly about to start negotiations to join the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai. Under a power-sharing deal, his party would supposedly fill several ministerial posts and governorships in return for abandoning the Taliban > > \ > > One reason the Taliban had been able to conquer most of Afghanistan in the 1990s, aside from the support of Pakistan, was by taking advantage of a popular reaction against warlords. Zardad ruled only a small area, but far more powerful rulers were just as cruel and corrupt as he was. Much of northern Afghanistan was ruled by the Uzbek general, Rashid Dostum, who had been part of the Communist regime and commanded a powerful army. The Pakistani journalist and author Ahmed Rashid once arrived to interview him in a fort overlooking his capital of Mazar-e-Sharif. Noticing bloodstains and scraps of flesh in the muddy courtyard he asked the guards if they had slaughtered a goat. They explained that an hour earlier General Dostum had punished a soldier for theft. “The man had been tied to the tracks of a Russian-made tank,” records Mr Rashid, “which then drove around the courtyard crushing his body into mincemeat, while the garrison and Dostum watched.” Here’s more on the amiable[Dostum](http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/9435387/Taking-tea-with-Afghanistans-most-fearsome-warlord-General-Abdul-Rashid-Dostum.html) > [@](#): > > Inside the house, in a marble room with a shiny new lift that wouldn’t look out of place in a Manhattan hotel, a man in a long gown greets me like a long-lost daughter. At six feet tall, he towers a good seven inches above me. I feel my legs wobble – his reputation is nearly as fearsome as his bushy moustache. He is General Abdul Rashid Dostum, Afghanistan’s most powerful warlord, head of the Uzbek tribe, unofficial ruler of the north, and, as the government’s chief of staff, commander of an army of over 25,000 men. > > It is only when I tell myself I have nothing to fear that I remember the allegations that make your stomach turn and heart pound, such as the one about how, at Dostum’s command, women had been raped and their breasts cut off before they were killed during the siege of Kabul in 1991. Or the one that told how Dostum ordered two thousand Taliban prisoners to be asphyxiated in metal shipping containers and left to rot in the desert in 2001. Or how he is said to have treated his prisoners – tying them to the muzzles of cannons before firing them into the air. The General has always denied such widely made claims. Yes. It is these monsters who we put in power. These corrupt monsters. [Afghan corruption worth twice government revenue: report](http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/07/us-afghanistan-corruption-idUSBRE91610D20130207) A figure equal to twice the Afghan government’s domestic revenue - $3.9 billion - was gouged from the country by public sector corruption last year, a U.N. report said on Thursday. Let’s just for fun, look at [treacherous warlords](http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125183668667977283.html) again. > [@](#): > > Ghulam Yahya, a former mayor of this ancient city along the Silk Road, battled the Taliban for years and worked hand in hand with Western officials to rebuild the country’s industrial hub. > > Now, Mr. Yahya is firing rockets at the Herat airport and nearby coalition military headquarters. He has kidnapped soldiers and foreign contractors, claimed the downing of an Afghan army helicopter and planted bombs in central Herat – including one that killed a district police chief and more than a dozen bystanders last month. > > Mr. Yahya’s stranglehold over the outskirts of Herat has destabilized a former oasis of calm and relative prosperity. “The security situation here is critical,” said Herat’s current mayor, Mohammed Salim Taraki. > > The warlord’s odyssey from friend to foe shows how disillusionment with the Western-backed administration of President Hamid Karzai has pushed even some former enemies of the Taliban into the insurgency. > > This amount is also roughly equal to the annual aid pledged to Afghanistan until 2015 by the international community at last year’s Tokyo Conference. You appear to know nothing about the country, you have no knowledge of history or social dynamics. Your assertion that an army with an annual churn of a third means the other two thirds are an effective fighting force is illogical in the extreme. The Afghan Army our forces no longer trust to go on joint operations with because they keep killing us. That army. Referring back to the Brookings Institute testimony. > [@](#): > > The current target strength to which the ANSF is scheduled to be expanded by October 2012 is 352,000. However, at the price tag of several billion dollars per year, such a force is unaffordable for the Afghan government for years to come. Thus, in addition to agreeing to continue footing the ANSF bill, participants at the May NATO Chicago Summit agreed to maintain the 352,000-strong ANSF until 2017, but undertake a “gradual managed force reduction …to a sustainable level,” with a working target of 228,500 > [@](#): > > Even if the 130,000 ANSF force reduction is gradual and even if the already-high attrition rate considerably reduces the number of those dismissed, the downsizing will still leave a lot of young men, recently trained and issued weapons, without a job. Afghanistan’s unemployment is already running high, and it is precisely the salary that induced many to sign up for the ANSF. The more military men are laid off without being able to find alternative unemployment, the greater the chances for political disquiet, criminality, and outright conflict. Yet peacefully integrating those young men into Afghanistan’s society will be no smaller a challenge than effectively integrating demobilized Taliban fighters. > > At the same time if the Afghan government seeks to compensate by reducing the quality of equipment, training, and benefits in order to keep more men on the roster with fewer financial resources, that too could have negative implications for the fighting capacity of the force. [Training the Afghan Army (Small Wars Journal?](http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/training-the-afghan-national-army) > [@](#): > > Do the Two Sides Care Equally? > > The more fundamental issue may be motivation. Both ANA and Taliban come from the culture that managed to drive out the British and the Russians; Afghans of any stripe will fight tenaciously even against great odds when the outcome matters to them. It is possible that the various insurgents simply care more about their mission. They may be paid a stipend, or ideologically motivated (pro-Islam or anti-foreigner), or politically opposed to the Karzai regime, or profiting from the drug trade, or simply happy with a job close to home. (It has been reported that most Taliban are fighting within 20 km of home.) The assignment of ANA soldiers often puts them some distance from home and in battles they do not want to fight. (Witness the number of desertions of ANA headed for Marjah in 2010.) While the ANA have gained respect from the population, at least relative to the police, they do not appear to be motivated by any great cause. There is anecdotal evidence of families covering their bases with one son in the ANA and another in the Taliban. While I have seen some genuine ANA enthusiasm for defending the country against Pakistan, there is little apparent support for the Afghan government. It is hard to fight and die for the Karzai regime. > > Training and mentoring are not going to overcome any of these motivational factors. Soldiers and citizens need a government they can believe in. The Karzai government is widely viewed as corrupt and incompetent and has refused to implement those portions of the 2004 Constitution calling for elected mayors and elected district, city and village councils. ANA performance may be more a symptom of Afghan governmental failure than a problem in its own right. We might see considerably better outcomes if we focused our efforts on governmental accountability. With a credible government that had the loyalty of its citizens, the ANA motivational problem might take care of itself. There might also be fewer insurgents to deal with. With local electoral accountability, those who are simply anti-Karzai, as opposed to anti-American or pro-Taliban, could compete in the political arena rather than on the battlefield. > > Conclusions > > While there should not be inherent differences in the two fighting forces, several factors work in favor of the insurgents, and ANA training seems unlikely to make much of a difference. It is even conceivable that our Western design and training programs are subtracting capability—by pushing adoption of an alien military culture and by constantly telling the Afghans that they are falling short. [Can Afghan troops hold off the Taliban after Nato withdraws?](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/01/afghan-troops-taliban-nato-withdrawal) > [@](#): > > The Afghan National Army (ANA) 215th Corps is now 17,000-strong, gaining in confidence and competence and, according to local polling, generally well respected. It has managed to hold on to the main population areas in Helmand in the face of a Taliban attempt to retake lost territory and as a result the province’s towns are much safer than they were a year ago. > > But the ANA still cannot fight on its own. Only one of the 215th Corps’ four brigades is anywhere near full battle readiness. In fact, a Pentagon report in early December revealed that only one of the ANA’s 23 brigades across the country had reached that point. The Taliban’s success in infiltrating its ranks has contributed to the number of “green-on-blue”, or insider attacks, in which Afghan troops turn their guns on their foreign mentors. There were 12 such attacks in Helmand in 2012, all fatal, sawing away at the bonds of trust on which the Nato exit strategy is based. > > Even more importantly, there are early signs that the ANA may be struggling to hold the line on a critical front in the war: the ability to protect Afghan civilians from the Taliban. I’m also old enough to remember Vietnam and the endless flood of bullshit about ARVN capabilities. And I see in Afghanistan the same corrupt incompetent government, the same unmotivated, incompetent army, the same corrupt brutal police forces and the same inability to stand up to a determined and motivated enemy. Sure,the ARVN, proably like the Afghan Army in a year, had a couple of decent units. So what? Means nothing when the rest of the army is breaking and running. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 9:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/109 "2013-03-13T09:59:30Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > Within 18 months of what date? And can you explain how Karzai out of office and out of Afghanistan I would presume is beyond the reach of international law? And why no NATO nation specifically would not be interested in going after him or any other who embezzled money from the Government they led. This whole post is meaningless assertions and hand-waving. This question is particularly ignorant. NATO going after him on what basis? For commiting crimes in Afghanistan? Is this your understanding of International Law? Jesus wept. Seriously? I’m done with ‘debating’ with someone who knows nothing about the world. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/110 "2013-03-13T13:20:46Z")
> [@](#): > > I’ve been keeping up on the history of Afghanistan for 37 years. If you want ot be informed you need to read a hell of a lot more than the clearly maintained wiki page. I can’t believe you seriously offered that as a cite. I mean - seriously - that’s your proof that Afghanistan is hunky dory? -Tagos That is all well and good. However I thought we were having a debate based upon what you yourself and I put in writing on this forum. You have some issues that certainly require some further explanation. A contest over who has the mostest & bestest links is not in my opinion a real debate. And your decision to declare yourself done with me in this discussion is odd considering your self-declared wealth of knowledge on the history of Afghanistan and it’s culture. We have no way of knowing if your years of ‘keeping up’ has been accomplished as an objective study or as some subjective and biased agenda or for certain motives that remain unknown. But you have mischaracterized my argument and points once again when you suggest that I posted a Wiki Link as my “proof that Afghanistan is hunky dory”. That is false, and it puts to question the objectivity of 37 years of research and self education when you are that careless in what you put in writing for all to see. I know you have threatened to quit without giving me time to read the vast amount of documents you have posted. However, I would like you to tell the readers how it is that your knowledge of Afghanistan excedes in value and importance all the knowledge that General Allen brings to the table with a multitude of genuine scholars and analysts etc, behind what he himself knows. And why is it that a concerned American citizen should take the word of an anonymous poster over the word and analysis and views of a public military official such as General Allen? I’m sorry to see your threat to quit the debate so soon. There are things brought up that only you can answer. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/111 "2013-03-13T14:56:46Z")
> [@](#): > > But in the latest twist in Afghan politics, in which leaders switch sides and betray each other as swiftly as any English duke in the Wars of the Roses, Hekmetyar is reportedly about to start negotiations to join the Afghan government of President Hamid Karzai. Under a power-sharing deal, his party would supposedly fill several ministerial posts and governorships in return for abandoning the Taliban -cited by Tagos #108 Today, 05:54 AM I’d like to see how Tagos concludes that Taliban leaders such as GulBuddin Hekmatyar is on ‘Our Side’ based upon speculation that something is reportedly about to happen, that apparently did not happen or did not pan out. Hekmatyar is on the US State Department list as a terrorist at the moment and I’m sure DCI Brennen would be happy to negotiate with Hekmatyar via airmail delivered by Hellfire Missile if he surfaces. > [@](#): > > Reuters: The U.S. State Department lists Hekmatyar as a “terrorist” for supporting attacks by Islamist Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents, althought he became a hero to many Afghans while leading mujahideen fighters against the Soviet occupation of the Central Asian country in the 1980s. [HuffPost - Breaking News, U.S. and World News | HuffPost](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mobileweb/2013/01/02/gulbuddin-hekmatyar-prince-harry_n_2395400.html) ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/112 "2013-03-13T15:00:48Z")
I’m done with you. There’s a minimum level of knowledge and understanding required to take part in serious discussions. You have neither. It’s not enough to have an ax to grind. And yea - I do have substantially more knowledge than you do. People who don’t feel informed enough to take part in this debate also reach that bar but wisely refrain. You want to believe that things in Afghanistan are fine, knock yourself out. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/113 "2013-03-13T15:51:08Z")
I can also cite Small Wars Journal articles that support a far different viewpoint that the SWJ article that Tagos cited. > [@](#): > > The Only Game in Town: Assessing the Effectiveness of Village Stability Operations and the Afghan Local Police by Seth A. Shreckengast Journal Article | March 27, 2012 - 4:39am. [http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-only-game-in-town-assessing-the-effectiveness-of-village-stability-operations-and-the-a](http://smallwarsjournal.com/jrnl/art/the-only-game-in-town-assessing-the-effectiveness-of-village-stability-operations-and-the-a) This analysis is one year old but generally, it appears that improvements in VSA and its positive effectiveness have continued. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/114 "2013-03-13T16:04:34Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > I’m done with you. There’s a minimum level of knowledge and understanding required to take part in serious discussions. You have neither. It’s not enough to have an ax to grind. > > And yea - I do have substantially more knowledge than you do. People who don’t feel informed enough to take part in this debate also reach that bar but wisely refrain. You want to believe that things in Afghanistan are fine, knock yourself out. But you didn’t seem to know that Karzai has only 12 months to go with all your knowledge and you repeatedly miss-state my position and you do it as you say goodbye. That is a sign of weakness in my opinion and perhaps explains your need to go prior to my having the chance to read all that you posted this morning. I’ll still read it, and reply, but it is better if you remained to explain some inconsistencies and weaknesses in the arguments you have made so far. If declaring me uninformed and then walking away is your idea of making yourself the winner then so be it. I hope others can see what you are doing and chuckle with me on your exit strategy. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/115 "2013-03-13T16:52:20Z")
> [@NotfooledbyW](#): > > I hope others can see what you are doing and chuckle with me on your exit strategy. I can assure you that people are chuckling. Not sure about the “with” part, though. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/116 "2013-03-13T17:30:50Z")
[quote=“John\_Mace, post:115, topic:652554”] I can assure you that people are chuckling. Not sure about the “with” part, though. I guess John Mace has no accountabily for what he puts in writing: > [@](#): > > The poster was claiming that Afghanistan was a “modern society”. The point about literacy rates pretty much puts that BS to rest. -John Mace Yesterday 11:01 PM 071p1101 > > If you are referring to me as the poster. That is completely false. I did not claim that Afghanistan was a ‘modern society’ so you need to put that BS to rest. I said there was a time, a precedent if you will, that shows that Afghans have ‘capacity and precedent’ … TO RISE ABOVE TRIBALISM… Key words there being 'rise above tribalism because that indicates that tribalism has always been a part of Afghan Society. > > The history and reality of tribalism, however does not negate that the people of Afghanistan have capacity and precedent to rise above tribalism and seek to join the modern civilized world. -Ntfldbw #092 03-12-2013 01:51 PM 071p0151.b ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2013, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/117 "2013-03-13T18:05:06Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > I’ll tell you what, as soon as you present reasonable points to discuss and decide to post in a single font and color rather than in a Technicolor disaster and to make proper use of capitalization, you’ll be able to have a reasonable discussion. - #048 03-11-2013, 10:01 AM That does not appear to be so, does it? ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2013, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/118 "2013-03-15T01:48:08Z")
I have a favor to ask of the moderator. Don’t lock this thread on the ‘one trick pony’ clause. I have no agenda other than to respond to those who engaged in the debate. The debate is basically this. One side is basically saying in varying degrees that the entire military mission in Afghanistan has been a waste. That once we leave, (which is 2015 with a residual force staying after that) the Taliban will regain control of the “tribal society” as if nothing happened because that is all the Afghan people know. On the opposite side, which includes myself, I agree with General John Allen who told some Afghan Security Forces that when they take control of security for all of Afghanistan this summer that is what victory looks like. It is them defending the people of Afghanistan. It was no declaration of victory such as the day the Germans and the day the Japanese surrendered at the end of WWII. All those opposing General Allen’s choice of words have made serious errors in their arguments. They have misquoted General Allen. They have misquoted me, and have argued against something that was never said. I would like to document those errors and distortions of my position, because it matters. There is a better than fifty-fifty chance that the people of Afghanistan are going to come out of this on top and never be ruled by a brutal regime of Islamic extremists ever again. And that is something in my opinion based upon a close examination of the facts and the words of military leaders such as General Allen, is something that should make our troops and our foreign service people proud. It is a shame that so many Americans, believe what they want to believe and won’t listen to all the news coming out of Afghanistan. They only hear what they want to here. There are many mistakes made.. too numerous to put in one post. I’d like to start with a mistake that John Mace and Tagos made. They wrote that Karzai would still be in power when US troops leave. > [@](#): > > Once we leave, this isn’t going to be about Islam, crusaders or Koran burning. It’s going to be about corruption and governing. The insurgency can count on the Karzai government being great at the former and lousy at the latter. -John Mace #054 03-11-2013 10:31 AM 070a1031 I will not post but once every 24 hours if no one responds. That is if that is ok with you. Look through this thread. There is too much unfinished debate business to just walk away. ---
**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2013, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/119 "2013-03-15T02:25:01Z")
Fantastic News just in from Afghanistan the AP is just now reporting Afghan villagers rebel against Taliban Last updated 10:40 14/03/2013 > **[Stuff](https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/asia/8424792/)** This is not just some remote uprising. It is happening in the birthplace of the Taliban movement 20 years ago. Here are some excerpts: > [@](#): > > Villagers in an area of southern Afghanistan that was the birthplace of the Taliban movement two decades ago have staged a first-of-its-kind uprising against the insurgents. I know that a few here, one with 37 years of study of Aghanistan history and culture, will declare that this uprising means nothing. That scholar knows Afghanistan better than the Afghan villagers themselves know Afghanistan and the Taliban. > [@](#): > > “This is absolutely the first time that we have seen this sort of an uprising, where the people have said, 'Enough is enough,” {US Army Major General Robert} Abrams said. Enough is enough of the Taliban. This could be the beginning of something devastating to all the gloom and doom naysayers on President Obama’s Afghanistan counter-insurgency policy. > [@](#): > > Kimberly Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War and an occasional adviser to U.S. commanders in Afghanistan, said in an interview that Panjwai is “one of the most unlikely” places for a popular uprising, given the Taliban’s strong influence there and the risk villagers take by standing up to the militants. > > It suggests to her that the Taliban have overstepped the boundaries of what ordinary Afghans will tolerate even in an area where the Taliban traditionally enjoyed sympathy and support. - AP ---
**Author:** ![zoid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zoid/32/336_2.png) [@zoid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zoid)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2013, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554/120 "2013-03-15T02:36:25Z")
I fear this will not end well. I sincerely hope I’m wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-general-uses-v-word-in-afghan-war-only-4-us-combat-deaths-since-jan-1/652554.md?page=7)