I think I see your problem here. You’re confusing his reply to an entirely different poster linking a video of the fall of Saigon with something I actually wrote. If you’ll go back and look, the only manner in which I’ve compared Afghanistan to Vietnam is to point out the absurdity of your using US combat deaths as a metric of victory. We’re in the process of leaving Afghanistan; it’s not surprising that casualties are dropping. As I said, US combat casualties were reaching all time lows in 1972, but it wasn’t because we were achieving victory, it was because we were leaving.
Who was it that demanded this in post #091 at 10:17 AM This morning?
Do you have names?
Is it Abdul Rashid Dostum?
Is it Gul Agha Sherazai?
Anyway here is a good link on the topic of Hybrid Governance; a pragmatic perspectin.
Could we see a link to what you seem to be most well up on?
Gotcha, didn’t make the connection about the joke.
However, it doesn’t take long to change life expectancy; that’s easy. But I’m guessing you’re referring to literacy, woman voting, ect. I agree those are generational changes (teach the young, wait for the old to die).
Let’s take women voting. Or even forget voting, just letting women have a voice to speak out without repercussions. I have to believe you think that’s something every woman should have and I think that’s a right you’re born with, not something that’s given to you by anyone. So I guess I don’t get it. We spent decades in Germany and Japan after WWII for reconstruction. I think we could be around long enough if we wanted. I suppose the odds of success are too low and the cost too great. I guess I just think it’s a shame we can’t do more or that people think what we are doing is in vain.
Forgive me if I continue to miss the validity of today’s 03:59 pm assessment from you of the absurdity of using US combat deaths as a metric of victory, which I most certainly did not do.
And I will admit misunderstanding your original expletive-non-deleted (I don’t mind some good cussin’) if you are telling me that you are suggesting there are no deductive or conclusive correlation between the reduction of combat deaths in Vietnam at the end and the same thing going on now in Afghanistan because they are distinctly different wars.
Is that what you are saying? Since I did not write that we are achieving victory because US combat fatalities have been trending down, it is not absurd or shitting you to define victory by the metric than General Allen clearly said?
That would mean that there are 67% that are an effective enough fighting and policing force to have taken the lead in most of Afghanistan and will take full control by this summer.
General Joseph Dunford also speaks (below) to the issues and problems with the Afghan Security Forces but advises that the past few years was getting the structure in place in place and the next few years will be getting the quality in place.
I believe they have targeted the 400,000 (Army and Police) number full well knowing that 300,000 will be required to keep the Taliban limited to hit and run suicide bombings and limited IED planting after 2014, so the concerns about replacing a third each year is most likely taken into account.
I also don’t know what the ‘replacement’ rate is for most armies. When people serve for two or four years of course there is a replacement rate.
When the foreign forces are gone, except for special forces and trainers, there will be the advantage that joining the Afghan Army and Police will not be construed as working with the occupiers.
The Taliban’s main propaganda theme has been that they are fighting foreign forces. As the Afghans stand on their own, that propaganda theme dies.
The Taliban will have to recruit on the basis of fighting Afghans and fellow Muslims. That is not appealing to Muslims.
The poster was claiming that Afghanistan was a “modern society”. The point about literacy rates pretty much puts that BS to rest.
We’re not going to treat Afghanistan like Japan or Germany. Furthermore, those countries actually were “modern societies” with a populace that had a sense of being a nation. Afghanistan is a tribal society, and it’s got a long way to go the become “modern”. A few pretty pictures on the internet notwithstanding.
If you are referring to me as the poster. That is completely false. I did not claim that Afghanistan was a ‘modern society’ so you need to put that BS to rest. I said there was a time, a precedent if you will, that shows that Afghans have ‘capacity and precedent’ … TO RISE ABOVE TRIBALISM… Key words there being 'rise above tribalism because that indicates that tribalism has always been a part of Afghan Society.
Hopefully John Mace can get cleared up on that, and quit posting claims that I have stated something which I did not do.
And there is this exchange:
To which Tagos replied:
We need some fact checking here.
What is the “first shove” and when is the “first shove” expected to happen in your best estimation?
When you say ‘most’ as in “Most are loyal primarily to tribe and clan” - where is the data we can see on that?
This is ripe! If the percent of army and police are Taliban but you admit that it is unknown, how do you know it is ‘large’ ?
And you may need to rewrite or explain better what the rest of your statement’s intent might be.
And you know the following how?
The highest estimate I’ve seen for the total peak of Taliban leaders and fighters was at 40,000. My point that the past few years the ‘ordinary people’ have put their daughters in school in defiance of one the Taliban’s most ardent Islamic laws in thier version, will most likely buffer any sympathy the ordinary people have for settling with a resumption of Taliban rule as it was in 2001.
What do you mean by propping up the Northern Alliance Warlords? I do not think you are aware of the “Special Force-ization” of the Afghanistan War which, David Acx on DangerZone a war reporter quotes a Green Beret Special Forces officer he calls Tom, who says, "Special Forces pride themselves in their ability to work within any culture. They blend in, live off the land, learn the local languages and customs, forge unlikely alliances and adapt, endlessly adapt, in pursuit of subtle strategic goals. “We’re problem-solvers,”
I don’t know what evidence you have that NATO Special Forces will need to prop up Northern Alliance warlords, so maybe you can explain what or whom you are talking about.
Suicide bombing will go on for some time until they burn out on it. But 10,000 to 20,000 Special Forces and trainers will not be in numbers seen by a population of 25 million to need to be gone if the Afghan Central Government needs them to stay. If they don’t need them to stay, that is even better.
Within 18 months of what date? And can you explain how Karzai out of office and out of Afghanistan I would presume is beyond the reach of international law? And why no NATO nation specifically would not be interested in going after him or any other who embezzled money from the Government they led.
I’ve been keeping up on the history of Afghanistan for 37 years. If you want ot be informed you need to read a hell of a lot more than the clearly maintained wiki page. I can’t believe you seriously offered that as a cite. I mean - seriously - that’s your proof that Afghanistan is hunky dory?
How about the Bank of Kabul?.
But as an Afghan expert I’m sure you have been following it closely. You’ll have noted then that no one was seriously held accountable.
You are of course familiar with routine stories like this.
Here’s more on the amiableDostum
Yes. It is these monsters who we put in power. These corrupt monsters.
Afghan corruption worth twice government revenue: report
A figure equal to twice the Afghan government’s domestic revenue - $3.9 billion - was gouged from the country by public sector corruption last year, a U.N. report said on Thursday.
Let’s just for fun, look at treacherous warlords again.
You appear to know nothing about the country, you have no knowledge of history or social dynamics. Your assertion that an army with an annual churn of a third means the other two thirds are an effective fighting force is illogical in the extreme.
The Afghan Army our forces no longer trust to go on joint operations with because they keep killing us. That army.
Referring back to the Brookings Institute testimony.
Training the Afghan Army (Small Wars Journal?
Can Afghan troops hold off the Taliban after Nato withdraws?
I’m also old enough to remember Vietnam and the endless flood of bullshit about ARVN capabilities. And I see in Afghanistan the same corrupt incompetent government, the same unmotivated, incompetent army, the same corrupt brutal police forces and the same inability to stand up to a determined and motivated enemy.
Sure,the ARVN, proably like the Afghan Army in a year, had a couple of decent units. So what? Means nothing when the rest of the army is breaking and running.
This whole post is meaningless assertions and hand-waving. This question is particularly ignorant. NATO going after him on what basis? For commiting crimes in Afghanistan? Is this your understanding of International Law? Jesus wept.
Seriously?
I’m done with ‘debating’ with someone who knows nothing about the world.
That is all well and good. However I thought we were having a debate based upon what you yourself and I put in writing on this forum.
You have some issues that certainly require some further explanation.
A contest over who has the mostest & bestest links is not in my opinion a real debate.
And your decision to declare yourself done with me in this discussion is odd considering your self-declared wealth of knowledge on the history of Afghanistan and it’s culture.
We have no way of knowing if your years of ‘keeping up’ has been accomplished as an objective study or as some subjective and biased agenda or for certain motives that remain unknown.
But you have mischaracterized my argument and points once again when you suggest that I posted a Wiki Link as my “proof that Afghanistan is hunky dory”. That is false, and it puts to question the objectivity of 37 years of research and self education when you are that careless in what you put in writing for all to see.
I know you have threatened to quit without giving me time to read the vast amount of documents you have posted.
However, I would like you to tell the readers how it is that your knowledge of Afghanistan excedes in value and importance all the knowledge that General Allen brings to the table with a multitude of genuine scholars and analysts etc, behind what he himself knows.
And why is it that a concerned American citizen should take the word of an anonymous poster over the word and analysis and views of a public military official such as General Allen?
I’m sorry to see your threat to quit the debate so soon. There are things brought up that only you can answer.
I’d like to see how Tagos concludes that Taliban leaders such as GulBuddin Hekmatyar is on ‘Our Side’ based upon speculation that something is reportedly about to happen, that apparently did not happen or did not pan out.
Hekmatyar is on the US State Department list as a terrorist at the moment and I’m sure DCI Brennen would be happy to negotiate with Hekmatyar via airmail delivered by Hellfire Missile if he surfaces.
I’m done with you. There’s a minimum level of knowledge and understanding required to take part in serious discussions. You have neither. It’s not enough to have an ax to grind.
And yea - I do have substantially more knowledge than you do. People who don’t feel informed enough to take part in this debate also reach that bar but wisely refrain. You want to believe that things in Afghanistan are fine, knock yourself out.
I can also cite Small Wars Journal articles that support a far different viewpoint that the SWJ article that Tagos cited.
This analysis is one year old but generally, it appears that improvements in VSA and its positive effectiveness have continued.
But you didn’t seem to know that Karzai has only 12 months to go with all your knowledge and you repeatedly miss-state my position and you do it as you say goodbye.
That is a sign of weakness in my opinion and perhaps explains your need to go prior to my having the chance to read all that you posted this morning.
I’ll still read it, and reply, but it is better if you remained to explain some inconsistencies and weaknesses in the arguments you have made so far.
If declaring me uninformed and then walking away is your idea of making yourself the winner then so be it.
I hope others can see what you are doing and chuckle with me on your exit strategy.
I can assure you that people are chuckling. Not sure about the “with” part, though.
[quote=“John_Mace, post:115, topic:652554”]
I can assure you that people are chuckling. Not sure about the “with” part, though.
I guess John Mace has no accountabily for what he puts in writing:
That does not appear to be so, does it?
I have a favor to ask of the moderator.
Don’t lock this thread on the ‘one trick pony’ clause.
I have no agenda other than to respond to those who engaged in the debate.
The debate is basically this. One side is basically saying in varying degrees that the entire military mission in Afghanistan has been a waste. That once we leave, (which is 2015 with a residual force staying after that) the Taliban will regain control of the “tribal society” as if nothing happened because that is all the Afghan people know.
On the opposite side, which includes myself, I agree with General John Allen who told some Afghan Security Forces that when they take control of security for all of Afghanistan this summer that is what victory looks like. It is them defending the people of Afghanistan. It was no declaration of victory such as the day the Germans and the day the Japanese surrendered at the end of WWII.
All those opposing General Allen’s choice of words have made serious errors in their arguments. They have misquoted General Allen. They have misquoted me, and have argued against something that was never said.
I would like to document those errors and distortions of my position, because it matters.
There is a better than fifty-fifty chance that the people of Afghanistan are going to come out of this on top and never be ruled by a brutal regime of Islamic extremists ever again. And that is something in my opinion based upon a close examination of the facts and the words of military leaders such as General Allen, is something that should make our troops and our foreign service people proud.
It is a shame that so many Americans, believe what they want to believe and won’t listen to all the news coming out of Afghanistan. They only hear what they want to here.
There are many mistakes made.. too numerous to put in one post.
I’d like to start with a mistake that John Mace and Tagos made. They wrote that Karzai would still be in power when US troops leave.
I will not post but once every 24 hours if no one responds.
That is if that is ok with you.
Look through this thread. There is too much unfinished debate business to just walk away.
Fantastic News just in from Afghanistan the AP is just now reporting
Afghan villagers rebel against Taliban Last updated 10:40 14/03/2013
This is not just some remote uprising. It is happening in the birthplace of the Taliban movement 20 years ago. Here are some excerpts:
I know that a few here, one with 37 years of study of Aghanistan history and culture, will declare that this uprising means nothing. That scholar knows Afghanistan better than the Afghan villagers themselves know Afghanistan and the Taliban.
Enough is enough of the Taliban. This could be the beginning of something devastating to all the gloom and doom naysayers on President Obama’s Afghanistan counter-insurgency policy.
I fear this will not end well. I sincerely hope I’m wrong.