# US House races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 23, 2025, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336 "2025-09-23T16:38:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![PatrickLondon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/patricklondon/32/4422_2.png) [@PatrickLondon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PatrickLondon)\ **Post date:** [May 24, 2026, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/81 "2026-05-24T17:10:44Z")
Ah yes. That’s the hard one. People who’ve invested too much emotionally to walk away, like gamblers in over their heads? ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2026, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/82 "2026-05-27T16:48:26Z")
> [@ZosterSandstorm](#): > > No one actually knows who is behind Lead Left. The main argument seems to be that they must be a Republican operation because they’re backing insane far-leftists who make Democrats look crazy to normal voters and increase Republican chances of winning elections. Of course, _ **that’s exactly what bona fide “progressives” do anyway** _, so I have no idea how we’re supposed to tell the difference. This is, of course, false, almost sentence-by-sentence. But a happy update: the Republican attempt to sabotage the Democratic primary has failed. > **[Johnny Garcia wins the Democratic primary for Texas' 35th U.S. House District](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/johnny-garcia-wins-the-democratic-primary-for-texas-35th-us-house-district)** > > National Democrats stepped in to help Garcia win House nomination as the party was seeking to defeat his rival, Maureen Galindo, who has repeatedly expressed antisemitic views. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [May 27, 2026, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/83 "2026-05-27T19:41:05Z")
Sex therapist Maureen Galindo, who had promised “prison for American Zionists”, received powerful support from Republican donors to the tune of $1 million, outspending her Democratic opponent. Last night must have been terribly disappointing for them, as Johnny Garcia trounced her 63.8% to 36.2% with 95% of the vote in. While Republicans were clearly infatuated with the antisemitic sex therapist, Democratic progressives denounced her: U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez said, “This is absolutely disgusting… This bigoted garbage and antisemitism should be nowhere near our politics.” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries called Galindo’s comments, “Disqualifying”. To be absolutely fair, I’ll quote from Galindo’s website, via the Guardian. She attacks the media and makes some powerful denials: > “Maureen NEVER said that she wants anyone in internment camps!! She never said ‘internment camps’; that was a very unethical journalist desperate to take her down through a screenshottable article title. Ok then. The website continues: > “She does want Karnes ICE facility to be turned into a prison for the billionaire zionists who have profited off genocidal prison state materials and trafficking. Prosecution has nothing to do with religion - they could be Evangelical, Catholic, Mormon, Jewish, etc. She also want pedophiles to be castrated at the Karnes ICE facility. Very normal, at least for the RW Qanon crowd. I nominate Maureen Galindo for Sock of the Year. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2026, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/84 "2026-05-28T03:32:35Z")
That’s just mean. What have socks ever done to you? ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2026, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/85 "2026-05-28T19:03:54Z")
Hopefully a Blue Wave in November will overcome even this. > **[Republicans are poised to finish this year’s redistricting war 10 seats ahead...](https://www.cnn.com/2026/05/28/politics/republicans-midterm-redistricting-war-democrats)** > > The coast-to-coast battle to gain an edge in November’s elections through partisan gerrymandering is racing to its conclusion – with Republicans poised to finish with as many as 10 seats ahead of Democrats through redistricting alone. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2026, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/86 "2026-06-16T18:01:42Z")
This is mostly about the House. [_Politico_: Bernie Sanders’ candidates just keep winning](https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/10/bernie-sanders-platner-progressives-primary-wins-00955571?_sp_pass_consent=true) ---
**Author:** ![OttoDaFe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ottodafe/32/356_2.png) [@OttoDaFe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OttoDaFe)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2026, 8:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/87 "2026-06-16T20:26:41Z")
So far, so good; but I’ll withhold my applause till his candidates win their generals. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [June 23, 2026, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/88 "2026-06-23T15:07:41Z")
[_The Hill_: Democrats hold 10-point lead over GOP on congressional ballot: Poll](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5918716-democrats-republicans-redistricting-emerson-poll/?link_id=10&can_id=523afdad635941b18cb4d7c4672ac33a&source=email-ccpc-recommended-174&email_referrer=email_3292866&email_subject=ccpc-recommended&&) ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2026, 12:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/89 "2026-06-24T12:01:18Z")
[https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/nyregion/ny17-primary-cait-conley.html?unlocked\_article\_code=1.slA.7icd.aPZ\_7f1XGnAl&smid=url-share](https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/23/nyregion/ny17-primary-cait-conley.html?unlocked_article_code=1.slA.7icd.aPZ_7f1XGnAl&smid=url-share) Cait Conley (gift link) will be the Democrat facing Mike Lawler in the Hudson Valley district of New York State, one of the few truly competitive districts. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [June 24, 2026, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/90 "2026-06-24T12:35:07Z")
Mamdani allies have a big night vs. Establishment Dems in the New York primary. > **[Espaillat defeated by Mamdani-backed Chevalier](https://amsterdamnews.com/news/2026/06/23/chevalier-mamdani-backed-candidates-ny-primary-election/)** > > Daraliza Avila Chevalier, who was backed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani has defeated Rep. Adriano Espaillat in the New York primary. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [July 30, 2026, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/91 "2026-07-30T17:32:51Z")
CNN Poll: Voters favor Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the midterms > **[CNN Poll: Voters favor Democrats by an 8-point margin heading into the...](https://www.cnn.com/2026/07/30/politics/cnn-poll-midterm-generic-ballot-democrats-republicans-change)** > > Less than 100 days before the midterms, voters are agitating for wholesale change in Congress and looking to the Democratic Party in hopes of making that happen. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 31, 2026, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/92 "2026-07-31T20:34:15Z")
Take away 4 points for gerrymandering (just my own educated guess), and that leaves a current 4-point margin. Not bad. Expect this to narrow as GOP smear campaigns go into full swing, unless this is balanced by prolonged war and gas prices. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2026, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/93 "2026-08-02T18:44:10Z")
Oopsi- > **[Republican calls for Max Miller to resign from Congress amid abuse allegations](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/aug/02/max-miller-domestic-abuse-allegations-calls-to-resign)** > > Senator Bernie Moreno says congressman and former son-in-law should step down after ex-wife’s allegations > Republican senator Bernie Moreno on Sunday publicly called for Representative Max Miller, his ex son-in-law, to step down from Congress amid allegations of domestic and child abuse. > > As recently as Friday, the [Ohio](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ohio) senator had avoided giving his opinion directly on accusations made by his daughter, Emily Moreno, against the congressman. “If there are any basic standards of character required to hold elected office, Max Miller fails them. He should not serve in the House of Representatives,” the [Ohio](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/ohio) senator wrote in a [post on X](https://x.com/berniemoreno/status/2083936589424582942) on Sunday. “I believe Max Miller needs to seek professional help to end the clear pattern of abuse he has left in his wake. I believe he should not be free to continue endangering others until he does.” > > Moreno also said he had hoped the situation would remain private but added that Miller’s “increasingly erratic and dangerous behavior has made that impossible”. _Generally_ Dem candidates do the right thing, even if they deny the allegations. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2026, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/94 "2026-08-02T19:22:50Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Take away 4 points for gerrymandering (just my own educated guess), and that leaves a current 4-point margin. Except that that’s not the way gerrymandering works. Gerrymandering can erase a small swing, but it turns large swings into landslides. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2026, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/95 "2026-08-02T20:14:31Z")
I’ve mentioned it before but the way gerrymandering works is your side has, say, five districts with a 1-point edge and two where you dumped all of “those” people. I’m hoping enough voters are POed at Republican policies and shenanigans that those 1-point edges turn into 6-point deficits. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2026, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/96 "2026-08-02T20:34:03Z")
> [@DesertDog](#): > > I’ve mentioned it before but the way gerrymandering works is your side has, say, five districts with a 1-point edge and two where you dumped all of “those” people. Except they don’t create +1 districts with gerrymanders. A +1 district is a swing district, could go either way, which is not what is desired. They usually want to create +6 to +8 districts, which is a more comfortable but not excessive majority. That said, I’m fairly sure some of those gerrymanders (especially in Texas) are going to be dummymanders, where the Ds pick up seats rather than lose them. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2026, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/97 "2026-08-03T11:02:26Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Except that that’s not the way gerrymandering works. In any single race, you’re right. But in the aggregate across dozens of races, when one party has more gerrymandered districts than the other, this can “translate” into a roughly calculable advantage that erases some of the other party’s averaged, overall polling advantage – if the goal is, say, to generate probabilities of a certain number of seats changing party. The folks at FiveThirtyEight did this pretty routinely. (I’d offer a cite, but sadly most of their articles have been removed from the intertubes). ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2026, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/98 "2026-08-03T11:44:39Z")
The thing that made 538 stand out from the other forecasting sites is that they accounted for correlations in different events. And that’s exactly what prevents gerrymandering from being a simple linear shift. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2026, 11:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/99 "2026-08-03T11:59:33Z")
Yes, I was going to mention that. As you said, FiveThirtyEight was always careful to note that there is _some_ correlation among races (in terms of direction of polling error and certain other figures), and they built this into their predictive models. But some districts are more gerrymandered than others. If the average shift nationwide ends up being, say, three percent, this will be enough to overcome the built-in gerrymander advantage in some districts, but not in others. This might seem wrong because it’s is using a general number to make predictions about specific races, but if your goal is to get a general sense of how the group of races are likely to shake out in the aggregate, it’s a useful “first pass.” > **[Widespread partisan gerrymandering mostly cancels nationally, but reduces...](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10288623/)** > > Legislative redistricting plans determine how voters’ preferences are translated into representatives’ seats. Political parties may manipulate the redistricting process to gain additional seats and insulate incumbents from electoral competition, a... “If Democrats win 50% of the popular vote, we estimate them to win around 210 out of 435 seats. It is not until the Democratic party wins 51.1% of the vote that they would receive half of the seats in the House.” (This happens to be from 2023. Also, some of that effect is from geographic clustering – cities leaning Dem). My 4% penalty estimate was probably pessimistic…but pessimism may be a healthy way to go (not just regarding gerrymandering effects, but in general), given recent elections. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2026, 12:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/100 "2026-08-03T12:29:08Z")
True, if the nationwide shift is truly massive toward the party that had been “gerrymandered” in more states – currently the Dems – then you can reach that tipping point, unique to the gerrymandering process (i.e., distributing voters to create many “quite safe but not unsurmountably safe” districts), that favors the gerrymandered party in a bunch of races. If this 8% average polling advantage holds steady until November, and survives the polling errors that have tended to underestimate GOP votes, then this gerrymandering “backfiring” might actually happen. That would be great, but it’s historically rare. ETA: Some call this “dummymandering.” It backfired against the GOP in the 2018 Texas _state_ senate races (cited in linked article). Has it ever in US congressional races? [https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2025/08/14/three-reasons-republicans-redistricting-power-grab-might-backfire/](https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2025/08/14/three-reasons-republicans-redistricting-power-grab-might-backfire/) (Also, I erred – FiveThirtyEight didn’t do predictive models, but rather forecast models. Subtle but important distinction.) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336.md?page=6)