# US House races 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 23, 2025, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336 "2025-09-23T16:38:16Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 9
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2026, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/161 "2026-10-19T19:40:52Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Here’s the fantasy land House Democrats are in, or at least their leader Hakeem Jeffries: Look at the article and the point- > It is an effort to turn one of President Donald Trump’s most recognizable Cabinet officials – and one who has been an unapologetic and visible cheerleader for a war that polls show is deeply unpopular – into a liability for Republicans’ fighting to keep their seats. > > In a recent video he posted online, Manny Rutinel, a Democrat and former state legislator who is challenging Rep. Gabe Evans, R-Colo., in one of the most competitive races in the country, featured unflattering footage of Hegseth working out with troops. > > “This man is letting Trump raise your gas prices,” reads the type stamped on the video of a sweaty Hegseth seeming to struggle as he lifts weights alongside military personnel. “I’m going to put a stop to it,” it reads, as the video cuts to Rutinel doing pullups and lifting much bigger weights at the gym. So, attacking Hegseth is an effective tool in the House races. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 19, 2026, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/162 "2026-10-19T20:09:19Z")
Obvious tool yes. How effective will be seen on election day. ---
**Author:** ![Toxgoddess](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Toxgoddess](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxgoddess)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2026, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/163 "2026-10-20T18:34:54Z")
Johnson’s already done it at least once. In 2025 he refused to seat Democrat Adjita Grijalva of Arizona who had won a special election. He kept making excuses as to why but the real reason appeared to be the budget battle shaping up in the House and he did not want to give the Dems another seat. She wasn’t seated for several weeks and after a lawsuit was filed. But at least one conservative scholar thought that he was [legally within his rights](https://theconversation.com/house-speakers-refusal-to-seat-arizona-representative-is-supported-by-history-and-law-268455) to do this. So there is a precedent, at least for single representatives. But since Trump doesn’t care about precedent, and he is already preparing the groundwork to declare fraud for any election the Pubs don’t win, and Johnson is a toady of Trump, I think it is well within the bounds of possibility that they’ll try something like this. Would it dissolve the House and effectively shut down the government? Yes. Should one man (the Speaker) have that power? Hell no. But they are doing something analogous now - Johnson sent the House home several weeks ago to avoid a vote on impeaching Hegseth. If he refused to seat new representatives or convene the House, would the members try to revolt in some way and meet anyway? I’ve no idea. That’s uncharted territory as far as I am aware. Anyway, I think that is a somewhat different scenario than the poll entry suggests, but YMMV. I also think “but that’s not legal” is not a reason to think they wouldn’t try it. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2026, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/164 "2026-10-20T18:50:09Z")
The “old” speaker has no authority to seat or reject new members after a general election. New members choose their own speaker, who then swears in the new members. From here: > **[The First Day of a New Congress: A Guide to Proceedings on the House Floor](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30725.html)** Sequence of events: - **Call to Order:** The Clerk of the preceding House calls the session to order. [[1](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30725.html)] - **Prayer and Pledge:** Opening prayer and the Pledge of Allegiance take place. [[1](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30725.html)] - **Roll Call:** The Clerk establishes a quorum using an electronic roll call vote based on state-issued election certificates (pursuant to 2 U.S.C. § 26). [[1](https://protectdemocracy.org/work/how-does-congress-seat-election-winners/), [2](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30725.html)] - **Election of the Speaker:** The House elects its Speaker via a _viva voce_ (oral) roll call vote. The candidate must win a majority of the votes cast. [[1](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL30725), [2](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R44243), [3](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30725.html)] - **Swearing-In of the Speaker:** The Dean of the House (the longest-serving member) swears in the newly elected Speaker. - **Swearing-In of Members:** The Speaker then administers the constitutional oath _en bloc_ to all remaining Members-elect. [[1](https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL30725.html)] So, presuming the states certify the elections, the only way Johnson could sabotage this is by removing the current clerk (who’s just a regular non-partisan staffer, in my understanding) with a MAGA nutjob who is willing to refuse to do a roll call somehow. ---
**Author:** ![Toxgoddess](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Toxgoddess](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxgoddess)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2026, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/165 "2026-10-20T18:52:08Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So, presuming the states certify the elections, the only way Johnson could sabotage this is by removing the current clerk (who’s just a regular non-partisan staffer, in my understanding) with a MAGA nutjob who is willing to refuse to do a roll call somehow. Don’t give him any ideas!! I just do not trust this crew to do what’s legal or required. They’ll find some excuse why they are entitled to do what benefits them, not what they are required to do and their idiot base will eat it up. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2026, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/166 "2026-10-20T18:53:23Z")
That’s not enough. They’d have to take positive action, and it would be public and visible for all to see – like replacing the House Clerk prior to the new Congress being seated. Otherwise, everything just happens as normal, with or without the old Speaker’s cooperation, and the new House gets seated and votes in a new Speaker. ---
**Author:** ![Toxgoddess](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Toxgoddess](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxgoddess)\ **Post date:** [October 20, 2026, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/167 "2026-10-20T18:54:56Z")
I feverantly hope you are right. But I am not optimistic. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/168 "2026-10-21T04:36:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > hey’d have to take positive action, and it would be public and visible for all to see – like replacing the House Clerk prior to the new Congress being seated. As public and visible as these peaceful tourists on January 6th? Replacing the House Clerk is a doddle compared to that. Most of the public is unaware of the clerk’s existence. [![](https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2022/03/2022-02-28T162852Z_1049049920_RC24TS9Q6K9B_RTRMADP_3_USA-CAPITOL-REFFITT-1200x806.jpg) ](https://d3i6fh83elv35t.cloudfront.net/static/2022/03/2022-02-28T162852Z_1049049920_RC24TS9Q6K9B_RTRMADP_3_USA-CAPITOL-REFFITT-1200x806.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Gordon\_G](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/3da27b/32.png) [@Gordon\_G](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gordon_G)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/169 "2026-10-21T05:30:12Z")
Ambiguous grammar intrigues me; I hope I can be forgiven a minor hijack. Assume, of course, no prior knowledge of PhillyGuy: View the sentence in isolation. > [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > As for her guilt, I believe in the presumption of innocence for everyone but would agree it’s stronger here than normally. > > Gonna nitpick grammar here because it’s important: “it’s” in your sentence has an ambiguous antecedent, and which antecedent you intend changes the sentence. When I first read his sentence, I assumed PhillyGuy thought she was guilty. Why? The use of “but” to adjoin two clauses usually implies that the second clause is in contradiction to the first. (But in fact “but” was just thrown in for emphasis.) Moreover the initial “As for” focuses the intended meaning onto “guilt.” OTOH, more careful reading leads to the opposite conclusion. The ambiguity is whether “it” refers to “guilt” or to “presumption”. But a presumption can be “strong” or weak, while guilt tends to be a simple yes/no thing. The moral of the story: Take a few seconds for a reread before posting. Ambiguities which wouldn’t arise face-to-face can wander into the written language. ---
**Author:** ![slash2k](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/439d5e/32.png) [@slash2k](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slash2k)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/170 "2026-10-21T15:25:02Z")
> [@Tamerlane](#): > > I mean, almost certainly not. The Democrats aren’t winning a two thirds majority in the Senate. Not even close, not even in a reasonable best case scenario. Meanwhile there will be no substantial defection of Republican votes to impeach Hegseth. Hegseth may be unlikeable and unliked even by some of his Republican peers, but realpolitik is realpolitik even in internal party politics. Hegseth would have to do something obviously criminal and by that I mean being caught red-handed using defense funds to buy a fleet of luxury cars, not just authorizing military strikes on Iran or forcing his religious bigotry onto the service. > > Impeaching Hegseth, like impeaching most anyone after the mid-terms, is a wildly over-optimistic fever dream. It’s just not going to be successful. Assume this is a blue wave election and the Dems end up with ~52 seats. They need 67 to impeach, so they’d need to find around 15 Republicans to cross the aisle. There are 19 Republican senators up for reelection in 2028, including in some maybe-purplish states such as Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Florida (and Alaska, where Murkowski is a perennial “will she or won’t she”). If we get a blue wave in 2026, more than a few of those senators will be thinking about what-ifs for another blue wave in 2028, and realpolitik should dictate letting Hegseth take the fall for an unpopular war. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/171 "2026-10-21T17:44:31Z")
> [@slash2k](#): > > They need 67 to impeach, so they’d need to find around 15 Republicans to cross the aisle… > > If we get a blue wave in 2026, more than a few of those senators will be thinking about what-ifs for another blue wave in 2028, and realpolitik should dictate letting Hegseth take the fall for an unpopular war. Maybe. Hope springs eternal and never say never and all of that, but I sincerely doubt it. To the point where I think it verges on being a waste of time and political capital to even try. Two or three defections and I might think it is doable, 15 I think is asking for the moon. The Republican caucus is just more disciplined and tribal than their Democratic counterparts, subjectively even in the Senate. The best chance for getting rid of Hegseth is Trump himself deciding to throw him under the bus as he has with so many others because it is politically expedient or he just gets a bug up his ass while sundowning some evening. I think impeachment is still a bridge too far. I would be delighted if that wasn’t the case, but I’m afraid I’m deeply cynical these days and far too pragmatic to be hopeful on what I strongly suspect is a lost cause. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/172 "2026-10-21T17:45:42Z")
Counterpoint, even if it fails the votes of the vulnerable senators can be used against them in the next election. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/173 "2026-10-21T17:58:18Z")
Counterpoint to your counterpoint, if it is just a failure that the public doesn’t get behind the Democrats could fall into the narrative of wasting time on a vindictive crusade rather than just governing. There ain’t no such thing as a free lunch and actions are never consequence free. Could. I don’t have a crystal ball. As usual it is all about tradeoffs. If Hegseth is sufficiently despised by a large enough section of the country as a whole it might be a net positive to take a shot at him with both barrels. But I strongly suspect he is not. I think he is despised by the engaged Democratic base and at most mildly disliked by some of his peers. Some sections of said Democratic base may well be baying for blood, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that a failed impeachment will buy enough goodwill with them to overcome the negatives of a failed performative attack. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/174 "2026-10-21T18:00:11Z")
True enough, it’s a judgment call. _if_ Hegseth or other cabinet member or even Trump himself is despised enough by enough people, impeaching him (it’s going to be a him for sure) is worth trying even if it fails, if not then it’s better not to try. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/175 "2026-10-21T19:05:03Z")
> [@Gordon\_G](#): > > The moral of the story: Take a few seconds for a reread before posting. Ambiguities which wouldn’t arise face-to-face can wander into the written language. You might check you post and note that in of itself, no one could know what you are talking about. FYI it is the Rep. Ilhan Omar raid. In any case, do we need five paragraphs about grammar in this thread? ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/176 "2026-10-21T19:38:11Z")
I don’t think the GOP caucus will completely collapse into backbiting and chaos if the Dems win 52 seats. At 55 or 56, though, things could get _very_ interesting. If it turns out the MAGA base isn’t big enough to win in places like South Carolina anymore, GOP Senators will be claiming they barely heard of this Trump guy. ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 8:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/177 "2026-10-21T20:22:43Z")
“I think he made me coffee once.” ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [October 21, 2026, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/178 "2026-10-21T23:20:12Z")
Universe, I know I haven’t been a very good pantheist but… ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2026, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/179 "2026-10-22T12:57:44Z")
I don’t think the House should impeach unless the Senate has the votes to convict. There are certainly arguments that Senate Dems can bring to bear on their Republican counterparts but a failed conviction just fuels the MAGA persecution complex without accomplishing anything of substance. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2026, 1:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336/180 "2026-10-22T13:13:17Z")
Disagree. It would, as you say, fuel the MAGA persecution complex. But not impeaching will fuel the “establishment Democrats are ignoring the will ot their voters” persecution complex. I think having the latter problem would be worse in 2028. ETA: And let’s face it. Trump has been impeached before. Even if Democrats do nothing regarding another impeachment, Republicans will still campaign about how Democrats impeached Trump, even if they are referencing the Trump I impeachment. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336.md?page=8) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-house-races-2026/1023336.md?page=10)