# US Midterm Election watch along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2022, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619 "2022-11-09T00:29:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/481 "2022-11-10T14:17:17Z")
This is according to Dave Wasserman (who is well respected): > ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/482 "2022-11-10T14:19:20Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > AK Senate race has officially moved to the next stage in ranked choice because no one got more than 50%. Results will be announced on 11/23. I don’t get this. Why does it take so long? Don’t they already have the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices in the system? The algorithm is pretty simple. Please don’t tell me that the morons only collected the first place votes and now all the ballots have to be re-scanned… ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/483 "2022-11-10T14:27:58Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Anyone have theories as to the blue wave that happened in Michigan? “They cheated. So much fraud.” ---
**Author:** ![kayaker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kayaker/32/441_2.png) [@kayaker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kayaker)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/484 "2022-11-10T14:31:45Z")
> [@Cardigan](#): > > Anyone have theories as to the blue wave that happened in Michigan? According to my brother (who lives near Dexter, Michigan) he gets the credit. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/485 "2022-11-10T14:32:18Z")
Thinking on it I suspect the redistricting by a neutral commission more than any other single factor accounts for the shift in power. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/486 "2022-11-10T14:36:44Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > I don’t get this. Why does it take so long? Don’t they already have the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices in the system? The algorithm is pretty simple. Yeah, I think Alaska has a single election administration\* for the whole state, so there’s no reason why it couldn’t follow in the footsteps of San Francisco and New York City, which I’m pretty sure do a running calculation. \*In Maine, it takes similarly long, but elections there are run at the hyperlocal level, so they have to wait until _every_ overseas and provisional vote is dealt with and the whole thing certified by each little postage stamp of a town, which has no (official) idea who is in last place overall. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/487 "2022-11-10T14:39:29Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > I don’t get this. Why does it take so long? Don’t they already have the 2nd, 3rd, etc. choices in the system? The algorithm is pretty simple. Alaska continues to accept absentee ballots until November 23. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/488 "2022-11-10T14:55:15Z")
> [@Lord\_Feldon](#): > > Yeah, I think Alaska has a single election administration\* for the whole state, so there’s no reason why it couldn’t follow in the footsteps of San Francisco and New York City, which I’m pretty sure do a running calculation. I was wrong about NYC, they also sat around waiting in the 2021 primary. But San Francisco does show the current preference flows as votes come in. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 2:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/489 "2022-11-10T14:59:09Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > It’s been un-gerrymandered Been searching the web and see the Washington Examiner ran an opinion piece on this question which maintains it was primarily 3 factors that changed fate for Dems in Michigan: 1) redistricting 2) Prop 3 (Roe) and 3) anti-Trump sentiment. [Republicans reeling after Democrats poised to sweep control in Michigan (msn.com)](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-reeling-after-democrats-poised-to-sweep-control-in-michigan/ar-AA13XI9m?ocid=entnewsntp&cvid=2d0f81d3a2124fc285d24f8541aea3fb) ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/490 "2022-11-10T15:18:15Z")
This is a cut and paste from 538 regarding recounts. - In **Arizona** , a recount is [automatically triggered](https://www.azleg.gov/ars/16/00661.htm) if the margin between two candidates is within 0.5 percent; there is no deadline for completion. - The [same margin](https://www.sos.state.co.us/pubs/info_center/laws/Title1/Title1Article10.html) of 0.5 percent would trigger an automatic recount in **Colorado** , which sets a deadline for completion 30 days after the election. - There is [no threshold](https://www.leg.state.nv.us/nrs/nrs-293.html#NRS293Sec403) that triggers an automatic recount in **Nevada** , but any losing candidate can request one. Remember, though, that recounts [rarely reverse](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/recounts-rarely-reverse-election-results/) election results — the shifts that result from them are generally so small that they would only matter in the closest of races. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/491 "2022-11-10T15:25:51Z")
Following the link, the Nevada voter requesting the recount must pay the estimated costs of the recount in advance, at time of the request. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/492 "2022-11-10T15:59:35Z")
Wasn’t MI not also the state where there were (R) shenanigans to fuck with the election results in 2020? A mini-putsch? Attempts to kidnap/attack the governor? Maybe folks who vote don’t look kindly upon people who don’t care what the ballots say. ---
**Author:** ![Cardigan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardigan/32/187_2.png) [@Cardigan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardigan)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/493 "2022-11-10T16:00:56Z")
I think the whole kidnapping conspiracy thing falls under category 3) general anti-Trump sentiment. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/494 "2022-11-10T16:06:34Z")
Michigan embarrassment. All those folks who stayed home, unimpressed with Hillary Clinton, and saw their state go red in 2020. Four years of feeling responsible for what they helped inflict on the US and the rest of the world. Nowadays they show up and vote with an increased sense of responsibility and accountability. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/495 "2022-11-10T16:14:39Z")
Well said. I think this deserves more emphasis. We here in Wisconsin, and those in Pennsylvania, were equally guilty in 2016, and (more or less) equally repentant-through-action in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/496 "2022-11-10T16:20:39Z")
Per 538, Maricopa County AZ has around 400k ballots left to count. The next update will be between 5pm and 8pm local time which is the same as California time. 400k is much more than the lead that the Dems have in either the Senate race or the Governor race. This county tends to be pretty liberal so it will likely, but not definitely, increase those leads. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/497 "2022-11-10T16:29:51Z")
Boebert needs Jena Griswold (Colorado Secretary of State) to find 65 more votes to win. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/498 "2022-11-10T16:37:14Z")
They could release interim results if they wanted to but it seems like there is an innate caution which accompanies RCV. The actual tabulation process takes but a short time. Btw, RCV had a pretty good night wherever it was on the ballot. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 5:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/499 "2022-11-10T17:00:41Z")
> [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > They could release interim results if they wanted to but it seems like there is an innate caution which accompanies RCV. The actual tabulation process takes but a short time. I misread the numbers. The leader is pretty close to 50%, so there is stills a chance that ballots to be received could put her over and make the 2nd choices unnecessary. > [@Red\_Wiggler](#): > > Btw, RCV had a pretty good night wherever it was on the ballot. I bet the people in Georgia, likely to be absolutely barraged with ads/calls/fundraising appeals for the next month+, wish they had RCV. ---
**Author:** ![MulderMuffin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/muldermuffin/32/2862_2.png) [@MulderMuffin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MulderMuffin)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2022, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/500 "2022-11-10T17:16:48Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > I bet the people in Georgia, likely to be absolutely barraged with ads/calls/fundraising appeals for the next month+, wish they had RCV. Yes! I was dancing in celebration on Election day because _finally_ the ads and calls and mailers and yard signs and billboards and door knockers would stop. Alas, the election groundhog saw his shadow, so we have four more weeks of this shit. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=26)