# US Midterm Election watch along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2022, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619 "2022-11-09T00:29:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 28
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/541 "2022-11-11T00:20:59Z")
As for the House in general, if all of the leads in all of the uncalled House races don’t change, the final count will be 222-213 GOP. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/542 "2022-11-11T00:23:44Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > Think of the 42% as getting 50.000001%. Anything less than 50.5% triggers a recount which is sure to happen because no one is winning by more than that. The 0.5% level for a mandatory recount doesn’t mean less than 50.5%. The threshold is 0.5% of the votes of the leading candidate. So for the CO race where Boebert currently has ~160.5K votes, a recount will be triggered if the margin is within around 800 votes. It’s currently more than that, but could drop within the range as more votes are counted. As you say, it’s unlikely to change the result unless we’re talking only dozens of votes. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/543 "2022-11-11T00:32:25Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > The threshold is 0.5% of the votes of the leading candidate. So for the CO race where Boebert currently has ~160.5K votes, a recount will be triggered if the margin is within around 800 votes. It’s currently more than that, but could drop within the range as more votes are counted. Yes. That’s correct. Thanks. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/544 "2022-11-11T00:50:05Z")
> [@susan](#): > > I see The Oregonian has called Kotek, but MSNBC still has not. Is The Oregonian’s thinking that most of the remaining votes are from Multnomah? > > ETA from MSNBC: > > # Oregon Governor Election Results 2022 > > TOO CLOSE TO CALL > > D > Tina Kotek > 46.2% > 684,336 > > R > Christine Drazan > 44.3% > 656,655 > > 78% expected votes in We now have 87% of the votes in and Kotek is leading 47.6% to 43.0% and the major news services still haven’t called it. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/545 "2022-11-11T00:51:29Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > As for the House in general, if all of the leads in all of the uncalled House races don’t change, the final count will be 222-213 GOP. The risk with such a narrow GOP margin in the House isn’t that they will pass terrible legislation, but that the House may become functionally ungovernable. Pelosi has done an extraordinary job keeping her caucus unified with a razor-thin majority. Will McCarthy (or whoever gets the gavel) be able to achieve the same with the House Republicans? It matters because there are some things that the House will need to pass over the next couple years, like debt limit increases and the federal budget. With such a narrow margin, McCarthy (or whoever) may be unable to get enough of his caucus behind ANY strategy for moving these “must pass” bills. What happens in that instance? Does he ask Democrats to bail him out? Do they agree to – and under what conditions? ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/546 "2022-11-11T01:14:35Z")
Bail him out, how? How many recalcitrant reps are needed to obstruct the function of the government? I recall a prior Republican Speaker who had trouble getting his team in line (John Boehner), so the presumptive Republican Speaker probably will have his/her hands full this time around as well. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/547 "2022-11-11T01:21:15Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > It matters because there are some things that the House will need to pass over the next couple years, like debt limit increases and the federal budget. With such a narrow margin, McCarthy (or whoever) may be unable to get enough of his caucus behind ANY strategy for moving these “must pass” bills. What happens in that instance? Does he ask Democrats to bail him out? Do they agree to – and under what conditions? I don’t see Democrats holding the country hostage by refusing to raise the debt ceiling. To your point, more likely McCarthy (or whoever) will be unable to block raising the debt ceiling in the face of unanimous Democratic support. He’d need to wrangle just about every Republican, which will likely be like herding cats. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/548 "2022-11-11T01:22:10Z")
> [@hajario](#): > > What has been incredibly refreshing is that so far, defeated Republicans have been conceding and no one is whining about cheating. There’s at least [one](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/politics/kari-lake-arizona-governor-race/index.html) (AZ governor posted [earlier](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/416) by Whack-a-Mole) ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/549 "2022-11-11T01:23:03Z")
I’ve been doing some political thinking lately. I’ve voted Libertarian for president a few times, maybe 4. I agree on many of the principals, though definitely feel a hypocrite as I get assistance. Its also relaxing knowing your candidate won’t win, and being ok with that, and not-they was cheated! But this election has made me realize I should vote Democrat. As a christian, I read that many christians seem to think God wants them to vote republican, as if it were the moral choice. I disagree. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/550 "2022-11-11T01:24:50Z")
Kelly just added to his lead! The mumbling from the hill is that Kevin is in a bit of trouble getting support. The freedom caucus is trying for a “no confidence “ clause to oust the leader if they disagree with decisions. For sure he will get no help from democrats. There is talk about trump backing Elise over Kevin and that his best congressional friends may listen. There may be things flying to get through Congress before the end of this session. 195d- 209r now. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/551 "2022-11-11T01:29:17Z")
I take some comfort in thinking that Kevin McCarthy is going to spend 2 years herding cats, trying to wrangle his bat-shit crazy caucus into something that reaches his whisker-thin majority, and wishing he’d gone into some other line of work. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/552 "2022-11-11T01:30:48Z")
Patty Murray is looking old. That’s not a knock on her but rather that I was in college in Washington when she won her first term as the “mom in tennis shoes”. It was more of a damn **I’m** old moment. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/553 "2022-11-11T01:38:42Z")
Some political prognosticator said today that it may be no one is praying harder for a Boebert loss than McCarthy. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/554 "2022-11-11T01:45:19Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > Whoa! I wasn’t aware of that either. Surprised it was such a low-profile race. And what qualifies her for this job? Never mind. ⁢ Everyone I’ve seen who supports her cites supporting her dad. Plus she got away from Trump before things got as bad as they did, without alienating Trump voters. On the other hand, she ran an anti-mask campaign, unlike our previous Republican governor (whose term limit was up). Still, while I was hoping Jones could pull an upset, her win really did seem like a foregone conclusion when she won the primary. Arkansas has shifted to be firmly red. You’d do better running as a moderate Republican here–something an incumbent actually did against an Independent Trumpist in one of the state races. And there was also a “nonpartisan” election for Supreme Court judge, where the Trumpist did not win. Marijuana legalization lost, though. It’s still only medical marijuana (which passed last time). ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/555 "2022-11-11T01:54:28Z")
> [@SuntanLotion](#): > > As a christian, I read that many christians seem to think God wants them to vote republican, as if it were the moral choice. > I disagree. ⁢ As a Christian myself, I can’t find anything where Republicans and the Bible actually agree. The abortion issue seems to be their main hook, but abortion isn’t mentioned. They very much seem the ones “with a form of godliness” that “will deceive many.” Jesus condemned the rulers of his day for that. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/556 "2022-11-11T02:16:33Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > They very much seem the ones “with a form of godliness” that “will deceive many.” Jesus condemned the rulers of his day for that. Nicely played. > [@CastletonSnob1](#): > > Is Texas really any closer to being blue or purple than it was 15 years ago? Was hoping this would’ve gotten answered. > [@Aspenglow](#): > > Some political prognosticator said today that it may be no one is praying harder for a Boebert loss than McCarthy. Triyng to picture a befuddled McCarthy staring agog at Boebert, who’s going off about “something something abortions at eight months causing something something X-tian porn, or something.” ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/557 "2022-11-11T02:20:38Z")
New numbers…Nevada, Cortez got 61 % of the vote Clark county, 56% of the vote in Carson, she is making up ground and getting the percentages she needs. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/558 "2022-11-11T02:23:14Z")
Arizona votes, pinal county masters got 52 % of the new numbers. Kelly leading by 100k plus. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/559 "2022-11-11T02:23:15Z")
Thanks for posting this. Awesome to hear! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 11, 2022, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/560 "2022-11-11T02:30:30Z")
it would be very good if the country goes into the Georgia runoffs at 50:49 for the Democrats. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=27) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=29)