# US Midterm Election watch along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2022, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619 "2022-11-09T00:29:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 37
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/721 "2022-11-12T04:22:29Z")
> [@Guest-starring\_Id](#): > > Thanks, and, if in a pony world at 52 D. Senate seats, that would eliminate the whole Manchin/Sinema nuisance? (pardon quick derail) There’s no possibility of 52 D, the most that could occur if Democrats hold NV and GA is 51 D. Both Sinema and Manchin are up for reelection in 2024 – there’s a good chance we’ll see how much more of a “nuisance” it is to have Republicans hold those seats. ---
**Author:** ![Tamerlane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tamerlane/32/7602_2.png) [@Tamerlane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tamerlane)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/722 "2022-11-12T04:23:52Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > there’s a good chance we’ll see how much more of a “nuisance” it is to have Republicans hold those seats. WV, probably. AZ, I dunno. As Ohio and Florida have reddened, AZ by contrast has developed a purplish blush. It’s at least not a foregone conclusion. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/723 "2022-11-12T04:31:32Z")
^^^ This is the truth. I can’t imagine any D, including Manchin, winning in '24 in WV. I suppose the Rs could put up a candidate so batshit that it gets Manchin reelected but that appears to be a heavy lift. So that is likely 1 D-. Sinema will be primaried by a less odious D for sure. It may be close or it may not. Again, depends on the candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/724 "2022-11-12T04:40:03Z")
There’s been a lot of chatter about Representative Ruben Gallego (D) mounting a primary challenge to Sinema in 2024. Here’s an article from back in January, where he very carefully does not deny he might do it: > **[Meet Ruben Gallego, Kyrsten Sinema's possible primary challenger](https://www.businessinsider.com/ruben-gallego-kyrsten-sinema-filibuster-primary-challenge-arizona-progressives-2022-1?amp)** > > Gallego, a former Marine turned Arizona congressman, has not shied away from criticizing Sinema in recent weeks for her stance on the filibuster. His backers say he's the best Democrat to replace her. There’ve been similar articles since then. Gallego won his district this week by 76%, which has increased the speculation: > **[With Ruben Gallego’s win in the midterms, will he challenge Kyrsten Sinema in...](https://aldianews.com/en/politics/elected-officials/gallego-v-sinema-2024)** > > The Latino rep and former marine was one of the few Dems to cruise to victory in Arizona's 3rd Congressional District on Election Night, Nov. 8. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/725 "2022-11-12T04:45:01Z")
Gallego is sharp, and I think he could pull it off. ---
**Author:** ![snowthx](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snowthx/32/10660_2.png) [@snowthx](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snowthx)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/726 "2022-11-12T04:48:52Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I suppose the Rs could put up a candidate so batshit that it gets Manchin reelected but that appears to be a heavy lift. Or, ya know, the Ds could help them out with that lift - select and emerge that candidate for the Rs, like they did this time around in a few areas. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/727 "2022-11-12T04:56:55Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > Or, ya know, the Ds could help them out with that lift - select and emerge that candidate for the Rs, like they did this time around in a few areas. I’m going to guess that it’s more likely Manchin will be primaried by someone more liberal. Who would then definitely lose the general. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/728 "2022-11-12T04:57:19Z")
Thanks for that. Sounds like a good person and someone who would be a better Senator. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/729 "2022-11-12T04:58:20Z")
> [@snowthx](#): > > the Ds could help them out with that lift - select and emerge that candidate for the Rs, like they did this time around in a few areas In West Virg I would not take that chance. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/730 "2022-11-12T05:01:29Z")
Yeah, the place/time to do that is when the candidate you’d pick has little chance of winning. WV is pretty MAGA-heavy. ---
**Author:** ![Guest-starring\_Id](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guest-starring_id/32/21736_2.png) [@Guest-starring\_Id](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Guest-starring_Id)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/731 "2022-11-12T05:10:19Z")
Heh - if I could’ve retracted _that_ call. Bleak. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/732 "2022-11-12T05:17:19Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > I’m going to guess that it’s more likely Manchin will be primaried by someone more liberal. Who would then definitely lose the general. That would be an enormous mistake. Manchin is about as liberal as you could get out of WV. I’d love to see _more_ Manchins - in places like Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 5:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/733 "2022-11-12T05:39:25Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Thanks for that. Sounds like a good person and someone who would be a better Senator. Maybe (I know nothing about him), but would he be a better general election candidate in Arizona? I’ll take Sinema’s posturing over forfeiting a Senate seat to the Rs any day. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/734 "2022-11-12T06:25:20Z")
Mark Kelly won with a decent margin, and he’s a very solid and reliable Democratic Senator. Sinema is not. We can win in Arizona with a solid Democrat. Hopefully we get one. Sinema sucks and, unlike Manchin, we can do much better in that state. ---
**Author:** ![Tabco](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tabco/32/7644_2.png) [@Tabco](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tabco)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 7:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/735 "2022-11-12T07:41:28Z")
In WA-03 Gluesenkamp Perez (D) is still ahead +1.7 vs. Kent (R) with (I think) about 91% of the ballots counted. The 70% count reported by some news outlets is not accurate, I believe. Would be a surprise flip if she holds out and wins. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/736 "2022-11-12T14:24:30Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > That would be an enormous mistake. Manchin is about as liberal as you could get out of WV. I’d love to see _more_ Manchins - in places like Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio. I’ve thought the same thing for a while now. Democrats need to become a big tent party. There should be room for Joe Manchin and AOC in the party, without them getting attacked for their politics by fellow Democrats other than in a primary. If they (or any other conservative or ultraliberal Democrat) do something that’s actually wrong, by all means criticize them, but let them and the people of their district / state have their politics. Trying to enforce a one size fits all situation may have cost Democrats the House, assuming AOC is right about why those 4 house seats in New York flipped. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/737 "2022-11-12T14:32:47Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > That would be an enormous mistake. Manchin is about as liberal as you could get out of WV. I’d love to see _more_ Manchins - in places like Kentucky, Tennessee, Ohio. Ohio? Ohio’s other U.S. Senator is Sherrod Brown, a very old school liberal, one of the most solid liberals in the Senate. I would call him the political heir to someone like Howard Metzenbaum. Ohio is not demographically a hard R state. It has been gerrymandering to within an inch of its life and Republican supermajorities are passing laws that are not at all popular. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/738 "2022-11-12T14:37:41Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > I’ve thought the same thing for a while now. Democrats need to become a big tent party. There should be room for Joe Manchin and AOC in the party, without them getting attacked for their politics by fellow Democrats other than in a primary. Are you kidding? 1. _Become_ a big tent party? The Democrats have been a big tent party basically since they came into existence and they have never stopped being that. 2. Manchin has single handedly frozen the majority of the legislative agenda of the president, Senate, and House, all controlled by his own party. Manchin has been in the driver’s seat for the last two years. He needs no favors from the rest of the party. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/739 "2022-11-12T14:40:02Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > Ohio is not demographically a hard R state. It has been gerrymandering to within an inch of its life and Republican supermajorities are passing laws that are not at all popular. Every statewide office in Ohio went Republican by strong majorities. That has nothing to do with gerrymandering. Ohio is a red state getting redder. Brown has resisted the tide through a strong personal political brand, but if he retires that seat is gone. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/740 "2022-11-12T14:46:10Z")
Strong majorities are not the 70-30 majorities that the Republicans hold in the state legislature and the U.S. House delegation. That is all due to gerrymandering. Voters vote on average 45-47 percent Democratic in the aggregate. That is not a West Virginia conservative state. The Republicans that win the widest are people like Gov. DeWine, who is a Liz Cheney type Republican. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=36) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=38)