# US Midterm Election watch along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2022, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619 "2022-11-09T00:29:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 38
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/741 "2022-11-12T14:54:26Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > Voters vote on average 45-47 percent Democratic in the aggregate. Where is that statistic from (genuinely asking)? While I understand gerrymandering can result in a minority of voters being overrepresented, how are Republicans winning all statewide offices and Presidential elections if the statewide vote favors Democrats? ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/742 "2022-11-12T14:57:48Z")
The thing about the Democrats going further right is that it would harm the uneasy alliance with progressives and further left. They (well, we) are just barely getting back on board. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/743 "2022-11-12T14:58:36Z")
> [@Acsenray](#): > > Manchin has single handedly frozen the majority of the legislative agenda of the president, Senate, and House, all controlled by his own party. He didn’t do that at all, much less singlehanded. There’s 50 Republican senators who contribute just as much. Which is my point. If there were only, say, 25 Republicans, it wouldn’t matter if the other 25 Democratic senators were Joe Manchin clones. Things would get done by the normal give and take of political compromise. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/744 "2022-11-12T15:01:20Z")
---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/745 "2022-11-12T15:02:28Z")
**Modhat on:** OK, looks like a good discussion for another thread and a probable severe hijack of this very informative one. **Drop the Joe Manchin, Big Tent side discussion.** I’ll try to note all the related posts. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/746 "2022-11-12T15:14:05Z")
This topic was automatically opened after 11 minutes. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/747 "2022-11-12T15:30:49Z")
So… No one has been watching the aren’t general races. 😢 I was hoping y’all would do my research for me. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/748 "2022-11-12T15:42:25Z")
Has anyone analyzed the remaining Nevada votes and determined a rough guess(odds?) on what the final result might be? ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/749 "2022-11-12T15:46:30Z")
When are we expecting the next tranches? ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/750 "2022-11-12T15:55:40Z")
Nbmnd ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/751 "2022-11-12T16:07:11Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Has anyone analyzed the remaining Nevada votes and determined a rough guess(odds?) on what the final result might be? It’s been analyzed pretty heavily. All analyses point to a Dem victory, but nobody is committing. From 538 last night: > Earlier this evening, a new batch of votes from Clark County (Las Vegas) narrowed Laxalt’s lead to just one-tenth of a percentage point. Since then, we’ve gotten more results from light-blue Washoe County (Reno) and solidly red Douglas County. Washoe reported about 11,000 votes, which broke about 55 percent to 44 percent for Cortez Masto, and Douglas County reported about 5,000 votes, which broke 61 percent for Laxalt and 38 percent for Cortez Masto. As a result, we’re back to where we started earlier today, with Laxalt leading 48.5 percent to 48.4 percent. But there aren’t many Douglas County-style vote updates left to help Laxalt, as an estimated 85 percent of the remaining vote will come from Clark and Washoe. Barring a surprise, they will favor Cortez Masto by some margin and likely put her in the lead. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/752 "2022-11-12T17:13:46Z")
Clark county nv usually does a presser around 2pm ish eastern, and results start to dump around 8pm ish eastern. California will vote dump around 4-5 pm pacific, that may clear up things in a few races. The states left in the congressional races are ones that have high amounts of mail in, or ranked voting. Those take a long time to come in. Most of the races are in the west; mountain, pacific, and Alaska time for those. Maine is the east coast ranked voting state and there is one race there. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 5:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/753 "2022-11-12T17:16:30Z")
Mark Kelly speaking now and it is so good to see gabby with him. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 5:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/754 "2022-11-12T17:34:08Z")
> [@Mahaloth](#): > > Has anyone analyzed the remaining Nevada votes and determined a rough guess(odds?) on what the final result might be? [Electoral-Vote](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Items/Nov12-1.html) did a rough job using previous numbers and ratios and has CCM winning by 780+ votes if everything stayed the same. They also note that she’ll likely get more than that just because of how various ballots lean (mail in vs drop-off, etc) and what’s left > **[Where Things Stand](https://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2022/Items/Nov12-1.html)** > > Click on the map for the article ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/755 "2022-11-12T18:01:18Z")
> [@rocking\_chair](#): > > Mark Kelly speaking now and it is so good to see gabby with him. Masters, so far, is declining to concede saying that he will wait until all the votes are counted. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 6:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/756 "2022-11-12T18:06:44Z")
> [@flurb](#): > > Masters, so far, is declining to concede saying that he will wait until all the votes are counted. I don’t mind him waiting for that, so long as an actual concession is in the offing. That’s true progress in AZ. Sad though that low bar may be. ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 6:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/757 "2022-11-12T18:15:25Z")
To his credit, he hasn’t thrown around spurious allegations of voter fraud (unlike Lake). One thing that has to piss Trump off is that so many of “his” candidates are accepting their defeats rather than going full election denier. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/758 "2022-11-12T19:33:12Z")
NV Clark Co. will report out tonight except some cures and provisionals. ~20k tonight if I heard correctly. Checking late-received ballots. Expected Wednesday PM. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/759 "2022-11-12T19:42:36Z")
> > > Jacob Solis @jacobsolisnv ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [November 12, 2022, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/760 "2022-11-12T19:45:13Z")
> **Off Topic and ignore a moderator instruction.** > > > [@Acsenray](#): > > > > Are you kidding? > > > > 1. _Become_ a big tent party? The Democrats have been a big tent party basically since they came into existence and they have never stopped being that. > > Enforcing, or trying to enforce, a doctrinal purity test on abortion is NOT being a big tent party. Henry Cuellar (TX-28) is “the last House Democrat to oppose abortion rights,” and he was primaried from the left. Thankfully, that particular attempt failed. > > [Rep. Henry Cuellar clinches Dem primary win over progressive challenger - POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/21/henry-cuellar-wins-texas-primary-00041170) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=37) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=39)