# US Midterm Election watch along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2022, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619 "2022-11-09T00:29:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 50
**Author:** ![ctnguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@ctnguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ctnguy)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 11:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/981 "2022-11-14T11:19:31Z")
> [@thorny\_locust](#): > > Is this for offices to which multiple people will be elected – say, for example, there are two openings on the Village Board and four candidates? That’s right. In the Portland case it is for electing three members from a district. Technically ranked-choice voting (RCV) refers to any voting system where the voter gives a priority ranking to candidates. As used in the US it mostly refers to instant-runoff voting (IRV), which is a method for choosing one candidate by eliminating the weakest candidates and reallocating their votes according to their next choice. Single transferable vote (STV) is a generalisation of IRV to multi-winner elections. The additional rule is that, as well as reallocating the votes of losing candidates, you also reallocate votes from winning candidates who have won by “too much”. ---
**Author:** ![Love\_Rhombus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/love_rhombus/32/10694_2.png) [@Love\_Rhombus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Love_Rhombus)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 11:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/982 "2022-11-14T11:46:30Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > multiple ninjas I believe the proper name is a stealth of ninjas. 🥷 ---
**Author:** ![CastletonSnob1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ccd318/32.png) [@CastletonSnob1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CastletonSnob1)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 1:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/983 "2022-11-14T13:26:05Z")
I think Texas Democrats should focus on the cities. “Democrats shouldn’t abandon Rural Texans! They deserve to be heard too!”. Forgive me if I’m a bit skeptical of rural Texans’ ability to make good voting decisions after seeing that Uvalde County overwhelmingly voted for Abbott. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/984 "2022-11-14T15:04:19Z")
Nm, don’t want to hijack a breaking news thread ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/985 "2022-11-14T16:41:02Z")
Besides Maricopa and Pima Counties, Cochise and Pinal Counties still are reporting a substantial number of ballots (16k-17k between them). I am looking at the live feed from Pinal and they are prepping the tabulators to run a sizeable batch. Both these counties are pretty red. ETA: Navajo County (very blue) also has 4k left and are actively tabulating. ---
**Author:** ![Red\_Wiggler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/red_wiggler/32/13190_2.png) [@Red\_Wiggler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Red_Wiggler)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/986 "2022-11-14T17:23:02Z")
Add Arlington County (VA) and the state of Nevada (third state to do so) to the list of RCV adopters. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 5:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/987 "2022-11-14T17:35:29Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Last I checked, New Jersey is not New England and we’re mostly blue or purple except for our most rural counties. You see the same in New England actually. NY has vast Red area but it has vast rural areas still. Eh, I was born and raised in Ocean County. It’s not rural, but it’s one of the most conservative parts of the state. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/988 "2022-11-14T17:39:38Z")
So many seniors. Ocean County is Florida North. Pines, Sands and Seniors. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/989 "2022-11-14T17:40:49Z")
It’s not just seniors. I wouldn’t be surprised if the folks I knew in high school (who didn’t move away) became Trump supporters - and in fact I know some did due to Facebook. It’s just a pretty conservative area. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2022, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/990 "2022-11-14T19:40:29Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > ETA: Navajo County (very blue) also has 4k left and are actively tabulating. Got confused with Apache County. Navajo County is reddish. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/991 "2022-11-15T00:19:10Z")
Newsweek\* is reporting Kari Lake faces certain defeat. Is this true? \*Or is online Newsweek just fake-new now? I thought I heard it wasn’t legit. ---
**Author:** ![Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/marvin_the_martian/32/2898_2.png) [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marvin_the_Martian)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/992 "2022-11-15T00:31:19Z")
She is looking pretty good, but may end up in recount territory - her lead is about 1% now, recount threshold is 0.5%. I am worried about the AG race, current lead is 0.4%. ---
**Author:** ![Andy\_L](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c67d28/32.png) [@Andy\_L](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andy_L)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/993 "2022-11-15T00:31:54Z")
The Post says her advisors are telling her it’s over (gift link) > **[Inside Kari Lake’s war room, where Republicans are grappling with defeat](https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/2022/11/14/kari-lake-arizona-governor-race-results/?pwapi_token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWJpZCI6IjEyMjI3MzAzIiwicmVhc29uIjoiZ2lmdCIsIm5iZiI6MTY2ODQ3MjI2NiwiaXNzIjoic3Vic2NyaXB0aW9ucyIsImV4cCI6MTY2OTY4MTg2NiwiaWF0IjoxNjY4NDcyMjY2LCJqdGkiOiJmNGVjYzc0NS04MmIxLTRlNjEtOTMzZi0xNDg2NzcyNThkOTciLCJ1cmwiOiJodHRwczovL3d3dy53YXNoaW5ndG9ucG9zdC5jb20vZWxlY3Rpb25zLzIwMjIvMTEvMTQva2FyaS1sYWtlLWFyaXpvbmEtZ292ZXJub3ItcmFjZS1yZXN1bHRzLyJ9.udandg2WqPtaIH5HT6-D_8YawxkuKaeEy4r39GNeux4&itid=gfta)** > > The subdued mood marks a reversal from just days earlier, when the Republican gubernatorial nominee in Arizona was readying a transition team. > PHOENIX — Kari Lake, staring down a likely loss in the Arizona governor’s race, is being advised by GOP operatives and some of her closest aides to take a measured approach should she come up short in the vote tally and not “storm the castle,” as one person present for the discussions described the sentiments. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/994 "2022-11-15T00:33:04Z")
She doesn’t seem the ketchup sort so I’m wondering what condiments she’s throwing at the wall. ---
**Author:** ![hajario](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hajario/32/171_2.png) [@hajario](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hajario)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/995 "2022-11-15T00:37:27Z")
About half of the remaining votes are expected to drop at the top of the hour. This will be all that’s left in Maricopa. This is very likely to determine the outcome. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/996 "2022-11-15T00:46:02Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > She doesn’t seem the ketchup sort so I’m wondering what condiments she’s throwing at the wall. She’s more of the Get In Front Of The Cameras And Stir Up The Rubes variety. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/997 "2022-11-15T00:48:11Z")
Hobbs just added to her lead by 4,000 with Pima County results. Maricopa county results expected in ~15 minutes. That could be all Hobbs needs. ---
**Author:** ![loriloolee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/5fc32e/32.png) [@loriloolee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/loriloolee)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/998 "2022-11-15T00:50:27Z")
Steve Kornacki just said that the Maricopa County votes expected at the top of the hour will be Kari Lake’s “Hail Mary Pass”. Katie Hobbs is in the lead by more than 29K. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/999 "2022-11-15T00:52:39Z")
Hobbs has increased her lead with a dump from Pima county. 4 counties came in and hobbs got the majority in all 4. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2022, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1000 "2022-11-15T00:59:53Z")
> [@Marvin\_the\_Martian](#): > > She is looking pretty good, but may end up in recount territory - her lead is about 1% now, recount threshold is 0.5%. I am worried about the AG race, current lead is 0.4%. A note on recounts, since this is different from Colorado’s law: Arizona’s threshold is 0.5% of _total votes_, not 0.5% of the leading candidate. So with the anticipated total number of votes in Arizona, it will probably be ~13K for the governor race and 12.8K for the AG race. As of 5:50 pm AZ time, the AG lead is 13.9K, so just outside of recount territory, but possibly within range depending on the last drops. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=49) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=51)