# US Midterm Election watch along thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 9, 2022, 12:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619 "2022-11-09T00:29:05Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 62
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1221 "2022-12-07T02:22:51Z")
80% in and warnock leads. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1222 "2022-12-07T02:23:20Z")
> [@gkster](#): > > A real nail-biter, NY Times says with 74% in > > | Herschel Walker | Rep. | 1,309,708 | +50.04%50.04% | > | --- | --- | --- | --- | > | Raphael Warnock\*\*\* _incumbent_ | Dem. | 1,307,714 | +49.96%49.96 | > > Ugh! > > And re. the live forecast and needle, “We have temporarily paused updates to our estimates while we investigate a data issue.” I wonder what’s up with that? I’m getting nervous about the results, though. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1223 "2022-12-07T02:23:30Z")
78% of votes are in and Warnock is up by 21,000 or so. Still a good amount of vote in the Atlanta metro area to come in. It will mostly be same day vote. Hopefully that will break for Warnock. ---
**Author:** ![puzzlegal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/puzzlegal/32/3827_2.png) [@puzzlegal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/puzzlegal)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1224 "2022-12-07T02:24:33Z")
NYT has removed the needle altogether. ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1225 "2022-12-07T02:24:45Z")
Most of what’s left is same-day in counties that will break heavily for Warnock. It’ll be ok. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1226 "2022-12-07T02:30:18Z")
This is giving me agita. ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1227 "2022-12-07T02:30:19Z")
[Baldwin County, which went for Walker last month, has flipped to Warnock.](https://www.unionrecorder.com/election_2022/warnock-wins-baldwin-co-by-slim-margin/article_f5feae78-75cf-11ed-a34f-0b12ed0b788f.html) ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1228 "2022-12-07T02:30:59Z")
As long as the margin is kinda close while the Atlanta metro counties have a lower % reported than the total, there’s not much reason to worry, at least in my understanding. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1229 "2022-12-07T02:32:44Z")
ABC news has Warnock up by 19,000 at 82% in: [https://abcnews.go.com/](https://abcnews.go.com/) ---
**Author:** ![SuntanLotion](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/suntanlotion/32/16165_2.png) [@SuntanLotion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuntanLotion)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1230 "2022-12-07T02:32:57Z")
This is nervewracking, like a superbowl game that has a 1 point difference in the score. ---
**Author:** ![Locrian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/locrian/32/14146_2.png) [@Locrian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Locrian)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1231 "2022-12-07T02:34:20Z")
Now a big dump for Walker… WTF?? You KNOW there’s at least one recount on this one. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1232 "2022-12-07T02:35:39Z")
Next time, when there is a hotly contested Senate seat, could you folks please ensure that the candidates do not have names beginning with the same two letters? Thank you for your attention to this matter. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1233 "2022-12-07T02:38:24Z")
Geez, it appears there are a LOT of people in GA who will vote for a sack of dirt before they will vote for a Democrat. (not suggesting Walker is a sack of dirt, just saying these people won’t vote for a Democrat for any reason.) ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Strangelove](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr.strangelove/32/6613_2.png) [@Dr.Strangelove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Strangelove)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1234 "2022-12-07T02:40:19Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > As long as the margin is kinda close while the Atlanta metro counties have a lower % reported than the total, there’s not much reason to worry, at least in my understanding. And it’s currently _much_ lower. Just skimming the county map, it’s hard to find a red county with \<95% counted. But Fulton is only 55% counted, DeKalb 65% counted, Cobb 68%, etc. These are _very_ heavily Warnock–(DeKalb 91%, for instance). ---
**Author:** ![Aspenglow](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aspenglow/32/76_2.png) [@Aspenglow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aspenglow)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1235 "2022-12-07T02:42:15Z")
Exactly. Walker can start packing to go back to Texas. It’s already over. Warnock is going back to the Senate. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1236 "2022-12-07T02:43:26Z")
This is like ossoff in the last runoff. Total see saw. Seems like warnock is picking up the point or two that the libertarian had in some of the red counties. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1237 "2022-12-07T02:49:38Z")
This thing is done: > There’s also this: > When Walker didn’t campaign for five straight days over Thanksgiving and nobody complained, you knew it was over except for the voting. ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1238 "2022-12-07T02:51:25Z")
NYtimes has it at 95% likely to be Warnock and 538 is saying 98.5% likely. I think Warnock has it. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1239 "2022-12-07T02:58:54Z")
They are saying too close to call, warnock lead. Walker just did not pick up the points that Oliver had in the red counties. They kept splitting between the 2 candidates. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2022, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619/1240 "2022-12-07T03:05:28Z")
Well this is certainly a telling thing: > **[Georgia Senate Runoff: How Raphael Warnock Secured Democrats A 51st Senate...](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-senate-warnock-walker/351770/)** > > So if the trend here holds, Republicans are going to wind up not picking up even a single Democratic-held Senate seat. That’s pretty hard to do. Even in 1998 an… > So if the trend here holds, Republicans are going to wind up not picking up even a single Democratic-held Senate seat. That’s pretty hard to do. Even in 1998 and 2002 (relatively bad midterms for the opposition party), they did pick up at least one Senate seat while others flipped in the other direction. And… > **[Georgia Senate Runoff: How Raphael Warnock Secured Democrats A 51st Senate...](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/georgia-senate-warnock-walker/351774/)** > > If Warnock does indeed win tonight, this election cycle will be the first since the direct election of senators began in 1914 in which no incumbent has lost ree… > If Warnock does indeed win tonight, this election cycle will be the first since the direct election of senators began in 1914 in which no incumbent has lost reelection, either in a primary or a general election. And furthermore, this will be the first time since 1934 that any president, Democrat or Republican, has seen all incumbent senators _of their party_ running for reelection win. In 1934, no Democratic incumbents lost reelection despite the president being a Democrat. Since then, every Democratic president has seen at least one Democratic senator lose reelection in each midterm, and every Republican president has seen at least one Republican senator lose per midterm. Remind me again how midterms are bad for the incumbent President? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=61) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-midterm-election-watch-along-thread/974619.md?page=63)