# US pulling out of Open Skies treaty. Thoughts? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 26, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509 "2020-05-26T19:36:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/21 "2020-05-28T15:28:28Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Because it wasn’t about the US. It was about several of the other signatory nations. And if we pull out those nations, our allies, are in a weaker position. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/22 "2020-05-28T15:48:20Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > And if we pull out those nations, our allies, are in a weaker position. Not really, unless the Russian’s completely pull out of the treaty. Assuming they don’t (and it’s in their best interest to continue with it), then all the current members will have basically exactly what they had before. Russia will still deny them overflights of key cities and installations. They will have lost nothing. If Russia DOES pull out, then that’s another matter. Countries like Ukraine especially will be worse off, for sure. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/23 "2020-05-28T15:53:33Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Not really, unless the Russian’s completely pull out of the treaty. False. If the US pulls out, Russia has a green light to restrict even more flights, and without the US around to throw its weight around the other signatories are in a significantly weaker position to coax Russia back into compliance. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/24 "2020-05-28T15:56:56Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > False. > > If the US pulls out, Russia has a green light to restrict even more flights, and without the US around to throw its weight around the other signatories are in a significantly weaker position to coax Russia back into compliance. So, what you are saying is that if the US pulls out, the Russians can break the treaty even more? Um…ok. That’s a possibility, but it’s not a certainty. They are ALREADY restricting the flights over the areas they find critical. Why would they need to restrict them more? Also, the US isn’t the only member (well, former member at this point) with additional capabilities, and the US also shares it’s own intelligence with several of them. So, your bald ‘False’ there isn’t accurate, though it’s not entirely wrong either. It’s more nuanced than you seem to understand. You are also seemingly hostile here for some reason, perhaps under the mistaken impression that I support Trump in this or anything. Not sure. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/25 "2020-05-28T16:26:36Z")
I’m not hostile at all. Russia was crossing the line. The US pulling out of the treaty redraws the line in a place more favorable to Russia. You say it’s merely a possibility that Russia will cross the newly drawn line, but it’s a certainty. It’s what they do. Arguing that we share intelligence with other signatories assumes that Russia will not restrict the flights of those nations in the future. They have no reason not to restrict those flights going forward since they were not punished, and were in fact rewarded, for restricting US flights. Giving them what they want for behaving badly incentivizes more bad behavior in the future. Russia will respond to that incentive in a logical way. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/26 "2020-05-28T16:37:07Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I’m not hostile at all. > > Russia was crossing the line. The US pulling out of the treaty redraws the line in a place more favorable to Russia. You say it’s merely a possibility that Russia will cross the newly drawn line, but it’s a certainty. It’s what they do. > > Arguing that we share intelligence with other signatories assumes that Russia will not restrict the flights of those nations in the future. They have no reason not to restrict those flights going forward since they were not punished, and were in fact rewarded, for restricting US flights. > > Giving them what they want for behaving badly incentivizes more bad behavior in the future. Russia will respond to that incentive in a logical way. It’s not a newly drawn line. Assuming Russia stays in the treaty, the lines are all in there already. Russia already restricts other members of the treaty from areas they don’t want them to see (by air craft recon at least). I don’t see any reason why they would become more restrictive…they are already restricting what they want and can after all. The US being in obviously had zero effect on this, as Russia was, again, not allowing overflight of the areas it wanted to restrict. Assuming you are correct, and Russia, for reasons unknown but maybe just because Putin likes to fuck with people, further restricts access while trying to stay in the treaty, then my guess is more countries will simply pull out, meaning Russia won’t be able to overfly those countries either, at least not granted by treaty. Russia has no problem violating other countries air space after all. So, I’m not seeing this as a big deal, and not seeing how this gives Russia more of what they want than they currently have. They ALREADY get out of this what they want, and the US pulling out doesn’t give them anything extra that they don’t already have, with the possible exception that we aren’t constantly nagging them now to comply. Which they were ignoring anyway, but perhaps was annoying to them. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/27 "2020-05-28T16:46:55Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I don’t see any reason why they would become more restrictive…they are already restricting what they want and can after all. They will be more restrictive because they were rewarded for being restrictive. That’s the reason. If the US pulls out the lines are definitely redrawn. The means of coaxing Russia into compliance are severely limited with the economic might of the US out of the picture. We are hanging our allies out to dry here. They are in a weaker negotiating position without us on their side in this. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/28 "2020-05-28T17:21:50Z")
Here’s a good article… [Storm Clouds Gather Over Open Skies Treaty](https://www.csis.org/analysis/storm-clouds-gather-over-open-skies-treaty) > [@](#): > > If the U.S. administration goes ahead with withdrawing from the treaty, then it is unlikely to yield an improvement in Russian behavior—more likely, Moscow will use it as an excuse to curtail further access for countries like Ukraine. Russia may also cite technical violations to cut out several NATO countries. Unlike the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty, U.S. allies have a direct stake in Open Skies and may well distance themselves from the administration’s position or actively condemn it. Reducing the intelligence available to NATO allies through overflights would undercut the operational effectiveness of the alliance, while unilateral U.S. withdrawal could divide it politically. Both would benefit Russia. > [@](#): > > The United States, as a large country, gets a significantly higher quota of overflights, so withdrawing from it significantly reduces the overall number of flights that can be shared. Hence, there is strong support for keeping the treaty in place and dealing with Russian malfeasance either through the treaty provisions or by calling them out. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/29 "2020-05-28T17:56:53Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > Here’s a good article… > > [Storm Clouds Gather Over Open Skies Treaty](https://www.csis.org/analysis/storm-clouds-gather-over-open-skies-treaty) I get it. But the thing is, we’ve been calling them out and so have the other members. And the Russian’s have ignored it. So, basically, it’s a matter of just sticking with the status quo or trying something else. Personally, I don’t see it as a major issue one way or the other, so if it were me I’d just keep on keeping on and not back the US out of the treaty. But that goes (for me personally) for most if not all of the treaties Trump et al have pulled us out of during the current administration. I concede, however, that assuming Russia bothers to stay in at all they could and probably will put on further restrictions to those who remain in, as you said. That will probably kill the thing once and for all, which is most likely what Russia actually wants…the treaty gone, but them not to blame. That depends on whether Russia actually gets any utility out of overflights such as provided for in the treaty that outweigh, say, Ukraine flying over their western border to check troop movements. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/30 "2020-05-28T18:35:49Z")
> [@XT](#): > > So, basically, it’s a matter of just sticking with the status quo or trying something else. Sure, it’s a matter of sticking with the status quo or trying something else. Pretty much everything is. However, the something else that the Trump team is trying is demonstrably and on it’s face worse than the status quo. If we must try something else, we should at least try something that has a possibility of improving things for us. The current path improves things for Russia and weakens our allies. It’s not the biggest deal in the world, and the world will not immediately break out into war, but when we list pros and cons of this decision, the cons vastly outweigh the pros. The choice between status quo and making things worse is obvious. Even if things only get a little bit worse. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/31 "2020-05-28T19:23:06Z")
> [@XT](#): > > Because it wasn’t about the US. It was about several of the other signatory nations. Plus, it’s what Putin does. Sometimes he pushes on a treaty (i.e. breaks it) because it’s part of his overall strategy. By breaking a treaty such as this, he sees what the reaction is, which tells him a lot. It also gives the impression that there is something he’s hiding…maybe something other countries should be worried about. > > While Putin can and is an idiot at times, and certainly an evil bastard, he’s also a master at this particular game. I’m not seeing it. I feel you’re adding too many layers to what’s actually a pretty surface situation. Putin wanted to restrict our treaty rights to conduct aerial surveillance. Absent further evidence, I’m going to assume this is based on the most direct explanation: Putin felt that aerial surveillance would reveal something he did not want revealed. The correct response would have been to assert our rights and push Putin to comply with the terms of the treaty. And then conduct the aerial surveillance and find out what it was that Putin wanted to hide. But instead we responded to Putin trying to restrict our treaty rights by declaring we were giving up all of those treaty rights. How is that anything other than an open win for Putin? ---
**Author:** ![Grey](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/b782af/32.png) [@Grey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Grey)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/32 "2020-05-28T20:19:57Z")
I mean what possible reason could a Russian government have to want to restrict information going to states it considers part of the near abroad of Russia? The Estonians must be thrilled. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/33 "2020-05-28T21:56:48Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’m not seeing it. I feel you’re adding too many layers to what’s actually a pretty surface situation. > > Putin wanted to restrict our treaty rights to conduct aerial surveillance. Absent further evidence, I’m going to assume this is based on the most direct explanation: Putin felt that aerial surveillance would reveal something he did not want revealed. > > The correct response would have been to assert our rights and push Putin to comply with the terms of the treaty. And then conduct the aerial surveillance and find out what it was that Putin wanted to hide. > > But instead we responded to Putin trying to restrict our treaty rights by declaring we were giving up all of those treaty rights. How is that anything other than an open win for Putin? I may be wrong about this, but as far as I know, this goes beyond Trump, and several earlier administrations, including the Obama administration TRIED to get Russia to comply…without result. As to the rest, yes…Putin et al didn’t want us collectively to see something, though they have to be aware that, in the US at least, we could see whatever it was anyway. Even if they only did whatever nefarious thing they were doing when they thought satellites weren’t overhead, they must know we have a lot of resources we can use for this that don’t include this treaty or open overflights. Russia has to know this because THEY have those capabilities as well. It’s the Ukraine’s of the treaty that don’t have the means without this thing. > [@Lance Turbo](#): > > The choice between status quo and making things worse is obvious. Even if things only get a little bit worse. You do understand I was agreeing with you there, right? Basically, my perspective on this, FWIW, is that if you are going to change the status quo you need to demonstrate that what you are doing will be better, in some material way, than what we already have. I’m not seeing that there is really much of a down side to the US, but I’m not seeing any upside at all, so it seems another stupid Trump thing to pull us out, especially since it will, once again, upset our allies. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/34 "2020-05-28T23:11:12Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > This is wrong, and obviously so if you think about it for a minute or two. I’ve stated my case upthread. With today’s technology the flyovers serve little purpose. Satellites and drones do a much better job. I’ve given it a great deal of thought because I’ve seen what commercial drones can do. I’ve also seen what private-for-hire drones can do. It would take almost no effort on the part of the CIA to make their own and fly them virtually anywhere they want. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/35 "2020-05-28T23:44:15Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I may be wrong about this, but as far as I know, this goes beyond Trump, and several earlier administrations, including the Obama administration TRIED to get Russia to comply…without result. I’ll concede I don’t have any good ideas on how we could have pressured Russia into honoring the terms of the treaty. So I wouldn’t be blaming the Trump administration if they had just been stuck with the status quo. But they took a situation that was poor and made it much worse. Now instead of having difficulties in surveilling the areas Russia doesn’t want us in, we are not surveilling any part of Russia at all. Russia was trying to hide something from us so we retaliated by agreeing to stop looking. > [@XT](#): > > As to the rest, yes…Putin et al didn’t want us collectively to see something, though they have to be aware that, in the US at least, we could see whatever it was anyway. Even if they only did whatever nefarious thing they were doing when they thought satellites weren’t overhead, they must know we have a lot of resources we can use for this that don’t include this treaty or open overflights. Russia has to know this because THEY have those capabilities as well. It’s the Ukraine’s of the treaty that don’t have the means without this thing. I still question this. I don’t feel Putin would have made such an issue out of this isn’t there wasn’t something real at the bottom of it. He wouldn’t have protested so hard over aerial surveillance if he knew we could already see everything by other means. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 11:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/36 "2020-05-28T23:50:04Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’ll concede I don’t have any good ideas on how we could have pressured Russia into honoring the terms of the treaty. So I wouldn’t be blaming the Trump administration if they had just been stuck with the status quo. > > But they took a situation that was poor and made it much worse. Now instead of having difficulties in surveilling the areas Russia doesn’t want us in, we are not surveilling any part of Russia at all. Russia was trying to hide something from us so we retaliated by agreeing to stop looking. > > I still question this. I don’t feel Putin would have made such an issue out of this isn’t there wasn’t something real at the bottom of it. He wouldn’t have protested so hard over aerial surveillance if he knew we could already see everything by other means. I think there are layers here, but you disagreed with that. I think Putin doesn’t want Ukraine and some of the other countries to be able to overfly certain areas. But I find it hard to believe that they could be doing something that the US (and several of the other nations) can’t see by other means than flights that have to be scheduled with the Russians in any case. I mean, if it’s something transitory, then they could hide whatever it is for a scheduled flight anyway. If it’s not, then satellites WILL see it, and the US has other things (high altitude stealth drones, for instance, as well as very low observable aircrafts as just two examples). The Russian’s have similar things of course. That’s my take anyway, FWIW. Maybe the Russians can hide things from all the high tech stuff we have and are worried about our open spy planes flying over on schedules coordinated with them, but I’m not seeing it. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/37 "2020-05-29T01:27:32Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > I’ve stated my case upthread. With today’s technology the flyovers serve little purpose. Satellites and drones do a much better job. This is wrong, and obviously so if you think about it for a minute or two. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/38 "2020-05-29T01:50:09Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > This is wrong, and obviously so if you think about it for a minute or two. You’re repeating yourself without providing any explanation as to your position. ---
**Author:** ![Lance\_Turbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lance_turbo/32/6156_2.png) [@Lance\_Turbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lance_Turbo)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/39 "2020-05-29T02:03:00Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > You’re repeating yourself without providing any explanation as to your position. True. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 4:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509/40 "2020-05-29T04:09:21Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > True. Uh huh. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/us-pulling-out-of-open-skies-treaty-thoughts/854509.md?page=1)