# USA Election Watch 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 3, 2026, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377 "2026-11-03T18:32:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/201 "2026-11-04T02:12:00Z")
Not a done deal yet, but it looks like Darline Graham has lost SC. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/202 "2026-11-04T02:12:02Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > Looks good, @ThelmaLou! Be still, my heart… 💓 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/203 "2026-11-04T02:12:05Z")
For what it’s worth, betting market PredictIt thinks Democrats will have a minimum of 55 Senate seats with over 90% confidence, with about 50/50 it will be 56 or more. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/204 "2026-11-04T02:12:06Z")
At 5% maine is Dem 55 to 45%. I hope Collins is done. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/205 "2026-11-04T02:13:43Z")
Dems got close in Florida. It was very seesaw. Ohio is tightening up. The good thing is the outstanding vote is big city votes. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/206 "2026-11-04T02:14:06Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > Not a done deal yet, but it looks like Darline Graham has lost SC. That would be great. I’m seeing 75% counted. 7 pt lead for Andrews over Graham. ---
**Author:** ![Win\_Place\_Show](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/win_place_show/32/13469_2.png) [@Win\_Place\_Show](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Win_Place_Show)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/207 "2026-11-04T02:14:07Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > At 5% maine is Dem 55 to 45%. > > I hope Collins is done. I rely a lot on the NYT “needle”. They have Jackson (D) at a 69% chance now. [https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/03/us/elections/results-maine-us-senate.html](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/11/03/us/elections/results-maine-us-senate.html) ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/208 "2026-11-04T02:14:35Z")
Donalds-R called for governor in FL by AP. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/209 "2026-11-04T02:14:37Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Talarico still leading by 20 points in TX with 40% in. And there is still 0% reported from Harris County (Houston proper) and Travis County (Austin proper). I’m very confident right now that both Talarico and Hinojosa (D, challenging Abbott for governor) will win. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/210 "2026-11-04T02:15:16Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > This might be a Dem 1994… Lets hope so. The democrats may flip 8 senate seats, giving them 55 seats. The house could be 250-260 democrats. I hope this is a generation changing election and I hope the democrats get the message that the public want more economic changes. ---
**Author:** ![Chessic\_Sense](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/7c8e57/32.png) [@Chessic\_Sense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chessic_Sense)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/211 "2026-11-04T02:16:16Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > I hope the democrats get the message that the public want more economic changes. Narrator: They did not. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/212 "2026-11-04T02:16:46Z")
And has there been much reporting from El Paso yet? That’s not a ton of vote compared to the other cities, but it should be strong Talarico. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/213 "2026-11-04T02:16:55Z")
> [@Chessic\_Sense](#): > > > [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > > > I hope the democrats get the message that the public want more economic changes. > > Narrator: They did not. More importantly, Republicans need to get the message that going all in MAGA is not the way to go. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/214 "2026-11-04T02:17:38Z")
So how big of a polling miss underestimating Democratic performance is this? ---
**Author:** ![DesertDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desertdog/32/11503_2.png) [@DesertDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DesertDog)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/215 "2026-11-04T02:18:20Z")
Boebert-R ahead on CO. ---
**Author:** ![Kron](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kron/32/12444_2.png) [@Kron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kron)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/216 "2026-11-04T02:19:27Z")
> [@Smapti](#): > > Hageman (R) wins WY, which is a hold. I did my part. Shame it didn’t help (as always). ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/217 "2026-11-04T02:19:36Z")
Barr-r has held McConnell’s seat in the senate. 45-35 in the senate. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/218 "2026-11-04T02:19:54Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > And there is still 0% reported from Harris County (Houston proper) and Travis County (Austin proper). I’m very confident right now that both Talarico and Hinojosa (D, challenging Abbott for governor) will win. That is very encouraging! The guy on MSNOW keeps standing in front of the map of Texas so I couldn’t see which counties were reporting. But if those cities haven’t been counted yet, then– **whoopee!** ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/219 "2026-11-04T02:20:23Z")
Looking at my local races, several Philly area House flips seem likely, R to D. Brian Fitzpatrick, who seems to me the most moderate GOP House member, is running 32 points behind. In 2024, Stacey Garrity won her race for PA state treasurer, by six points. She is now running behind, in the governor race, by 40 points with 27 percent of votes counted. Yes Shapiro is popular. And I guess it will narrow a bit at the end. But 40 points? ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/220 "2026-11-04T02:20:51Z")
Ellman D is leading Tenney R 60.2 to 39.7!!! OK, that’s with only 2.9% in, and this district was gerrymandered out the wazoo to keep Tenney safe. I don’t suppose it’ll hold. But let me enjoy it while it lasts. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377.md?page=12)