# USA Election Watch 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 3, 2026, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377 "2026-11-03T18:32:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/241 "2026-11-04T02:30:52Z")
At the moment, betting market PredictIt users are now at least ~90% confident in every Senate race, as can be seen in this snapshot: [[Album] imgur.com ![](https://i.imgur.com/JBFp9Ao.jpeg?fb "imgur.com") ](https://imgur.com/a/lwccxaE) If this holds, Democrats will finish with 55 Senate seats. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/242 "2026-11-04T02:31:16Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If this holds, Democrats will finish with 55 Senate seats. And to think that a few months ago 51 seats seemed like a fantasy. ---
**Author:** ![romansperson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/romansperson/32/17100_2.png) [@romansperson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/romansperson)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/243 "2026-11-04T02:31:41Z")
It’s gonna be tight on some of these congressional districts, but it really does look like we might pick off one or two Rs here. District 1, which was gerrymandered to benefit the R candidate, is tight, but losing that one and picking up two more elsewhere would be something else. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/244 "2026-11-04T02:33:17Z")
The congressional district I live in, district 34 in TX, is one of the gerrymandered districts. It looks like the incumbent, Vicente Gonzalez (D) is going to win. He’s ahead by 20 points with 75% of the vote in. The neighboring district 15, anchored by McAllen in the Rio Grande Valley and another one of the gerrymandered districts, hasn’t reported any results yet, but I’m betting the incumbent Republican representative will lose to Tejano singer Bobby Pulido (D). ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/245 "2026-11-04T02:34:26Z")
81 d - 42 r house results. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/246 "2026-11-04T02:34:59Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If this holds, Democrats will finish with 55 Senate seats. I would have preferred 60 D’s in the Senate but I’ll take 55 for sure. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/247 "2026-11-04T02:35:28Z")
53% and Talarico is up 20 points. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/248 "2026-11-04T02:36:13Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > It looks like the incumbent, Vicente Gonzalez (D) is going to win. He’s ahead by 20 points with 75% of the vote in. I think it would take the GOP equivalent of Lyndon Johnson to turn that around. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/249 "2026-11-04T02:37:25Z")
51%, Hamilton up 19 in KS. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/250 "2026-11-04T02:38:22Z")
Kansas is leaning very dem. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/251 "2026-11-04T02:38:34Z")
NYT projection needle now pinned at \>95% D for both House and Senate. ---
**Author:** ![dougrb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/76d3ee/32.png) [@dougrb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dougrb)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/252 "2026-11-04T02:38:42Z")
Kansas Governor Cindy Holscher(D)/Ty Masterson(R) 58/31 ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/253 "2026-11-04T02:38:50Z")
John Brown would be simultaneously aghast and pleased. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/254 "2026-11-04T02:39:48Z")
I don’t know how to feel about Nikki Haley blaming - practically mocking - Trump for multiple losses. A very confusing Schadenfreude. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/255 "2026-11-04T02:40:28Z")
> [@Maserschmidt](#): > > I don’t know how to feel about Nikki Haley blaming - practically mocking - Trump for multiple losses. “Who’s the birdbrain NOW, Donald?!” ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/256 "2026-11-04T02:40:36Z")
We need the cult to break. Maybe this will do it. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/257 "2026-11-04T02:41:11Z")
I imagine this is the first shot in a highly entertaining battle between Republicans wanting to throw Trump under the bus in preparation for 2028 and loyal MAGATs. Or maybe there just won’t be any of the latter. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/258 "2026-11-04T02:42:27Z")
It looks the the R’s are _slightly_ ahead in NC D5, which is a shame - I really want that miserable Confederate hag Virginia Foxx to lose her job. Last election cycle, she won by almost 20 pts. About a week ago she started running ads on the TV channels I watch, promising that she wouldn’t let the government spend your tax dollars on anything. I felt like the message that all these NC Republicans were focused on was “we will lower your taxes”, and it wasn’t compelling, it just wasn’t what was on the minds of voters….and it’s not a Trump aligned message…he loves spending your tax dollars. ---
**Author:** ![Maserschmidt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/maserschmidt/32/18829_2.png) [@Maserschmidt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maserschmidt)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/259 "2026-11-04T02:43:03Z")
I feel like Trump at this point has thrown so many former allies and employees under the bus that they’ve been emboldened to fire shots back at him. I don’t like these people any more than I did before, because they all licked his boots at some point, but I’m still enjoying it. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [November 4, 2026, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377/260 "2026-11-04T02:43:15Z")
Ugh, now NBC has Rahm Emanuel on. (sticks fingers in ears) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/usa-election-watch-2026/1034377.md?page=14)