Back in the early 80s, my college major was international relations, emphasizing nuclear deterrence. At the time, WRT MAD and such, I recall discussing the benefits of appearing as other than a rational actor.
I’d say our current crew has that nailed!
Yes, I have. Which satellites do Japan or South Korea have that would give them the precise location of our carriers?
Wait. Your college actually offered a major with an emphasis in nuclear deterrence?
You are joking, right? Aircraft carriers aren’t exactly easy to hide, and a flotilla of ships sailing with one is pretty easy to spot from space. The PRC and Japan, at a minimum, would be able to pinpoint them (as well as the USS…, er Russia).
Now, what ISN’T being talked about in this kerfluffle over the Vinson is the fact that the President put MUCH more emphasis upon the fact that submarines were involved. And tracking them isn’t quite as easy. For all we know, there have been subs off the Korean Peninsula since the day after the President spoke about them.
Anyone know if any of our subs have been fitted with anti-missile missile systems?
Shrodinger’s Armada
I don’t know the exact layout of either South Korea or Japan’s (or China’s for that matter) satellites, but there are also commercial birds that you can get info off of, as well as other things. Could they get a precise lock on where the US carriers are? Probably not (the Navy DOES know where the other countries birds are and ways to avoid them or give them disinformation) to any really precise degree…but in general they most likely can track the carrier group somewhat and most likely knew it wasn’t headed straight for Korea. The South Koreans already seemed to know this anyway, since in the article I was reading yesterday when this came up they were estimating the carrier groups arrival to something like the end of April…which is when the Navy thinks it will be there as well.
No, I’m not joking. How precise do you imagine, for example, China’s tracking of vessels from space is? Do you think they know where all US Navy vessels are at all times? Something less than that?
So, if we cannot prove that the Vinson’s whereabouts were likely knowable to allies and adversaries alike, that would show us…what, exactly? Clearly, you have an urgently significant point to make. What might it be?
Its not like Trump said it was two hundred miles off the coast of NK, and it was actually two hundred twenty.
Japan and South Korea would likely simply ask US Forces Japan or US Force Korea for the US posture in their region in support of our treaty obligations to them. It’s virtually certain that the US would routinely share information on US ships in the region, as opposed to them having to rely on White House press conferences or their own national technical means to figure out if a carrier is nearby.
It’s pretty clear that China has a robust system of national technical means to detect carriers, seeing as how they have developed a missile whose sole purpose is to destroy carriers from 1,000+ miles away. See this article from 2009:
https://www.usni.org/news-and-features/chinese-kill-weapon
This doesn’t necessarily mean that China can track a carrier in real time, 24/7/365, but it does mean that they are far from incapable of finding a carrier strike group.
China has satellite capability. There should be little doubt they have spy satellites on the lookout for carrier groups (there’s only a handful, and it wouldn’t be terribly difficult to track them from their port visits which very obviously can’t be hidden). With decent weather and daylight, China can probably see our carriers at sea.
Yeah, the idea that China doesn’t have a good handle on the location of any large groupings of American ships seems a little out there. If I was going to put an idea towards exactly how precise, I would bet within a days travel.
You two might find this article informative:
What are you arguing? That the flotilla can only be seen 30% of the time? That still means everyone knows where ti is.
My original point was that “China … obviously knew all along exactly where the flotilla was” is probably wrong.
Realistically it would be less, since I doubt China has a satellite network that covers the whole Pacific 100% of the time. The other side of that, however, is that there are plenty of commercial information sources that the Chinese can and probably do tap into.
The idea that China or anyone else knows precisely where our carrier groups are all the time is wrong. But generally? Yeah, they generally know where they are. And South Korea and Japan are strategic allies, so have even more detailed information.
Add in spy planes, drones, long-range radar, etc., and there’s a good likelihood that China can track our surface ships – especially our carriers – most of the time.
Carriers aren’t meant for stealth. That’s what subs are for. Carriers project power and the flag. In general, we want them to be seen.
I was a submarine officer, by the way.
Ok, so you took offense to the “exactly” part? They might not know exactly enough to target them, but I’m sure they know generally what area they are in and what direction they are headed.
Ironically, China et al probably have a better idea of where our carriers are and what they are doing than the President or his merry men apparently do. 
Depending on what you mean by “generally”, I probably agree. Most major military powers still operate fleets of maritime patrol aircraft because satellite surveillance alone is inadequate. The US Navy (which has access to a lot more satellite data than any other country’s navy) is still in the middle of acquiring fleets of P-8 Poseidon and MQ-4C Triton maritime patrol aircraft.
Forget the satellite network tracking, though its probably more than adequate.
The Carl Vinson group (USS Carl Vinson, two guided-missile destroyers and a guided-missile cruiser) is cruising around in one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world and you reckon that nobody else knows where they are?
Would you think a US carrier group imposes an exclusion zone around the fleet or just let any 30,000 tonne container ship to sail through it? And if an exclusion zone was enforced how would all the ocean traffic in the vicinity know to steer around it?
If you want to know exactly where the Carl Vinson group is you could ask shipping lines like Maersk, MSC or COSCO to give you the location, bearing and speed. Though perhaps its a part of the information sharing agreement is that such sensitive material is not made public.