# Uvalde, Texas school shooting - the political thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 24, 2022, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036 "2022-05-24T21:36:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 25
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2022, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/481 "2022-05-29T17:42:55Z")
This isn’t accurate historically or realistically. There are long stretches of time in which a number of States have largely ignored Federal court rulings (including those of the Supreme Court.) One of the most famous of course is the case that helped us along our path to the Civil War–Dred Scott v Sandford was not just denounced as one of the worst decisions ever, it largely never held power in almost any of the Northern States, as officials in those States simply refused to adhere to almost any of its rulings. Another prominent one of course is _Brown v Board_, which was decided in 1954; there is a popular myth that the issues surrounding that case came to a head in 1957, when Eisenhower used Federal military power to prevent the State of Arkansas, and segregationist Governor Orval Faubus from blocking the enrollment of the “Little Rock Nine” from Little Rock Central High School. The reality is by 1968 (over 10 years later) most school districts in the South were still meaningfully resisting the court ruling, were not meaningfully integrated, and had constructed myriad ways to disobey the order without immediate consequence. After 1968 Civil Rights legislation integration increased, but was still significantly and effectively resisted–in fact huge swathes of the American South still have functionally segregated schools. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2022, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/482 "2022-05-29T18:47:55Z")
So - statistically - how dangerous are schools? How likely is it for a minor to be injured/die as a result of an armed attacker while in a school? Compared to other “health” dangers? What is the point of turning schools into armed camps, if they can be defeated by one fool wedging a door open? And then compounded by (apparently) confused/dithering/incompetent LEOs. Another huge budget item. I’m not saying it is anything other than a tragedy that these people died. But if we choose to style our society such that a troubled 18 yr old fast food worker is able to amass this sort of firepower, seems kinda foolish to expect to harden all public places against potential assaults. ---
**Author:** ![Martin\_Hyde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/47e85d/32.png) [@Martin\_Hyde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Martin_Hyde)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2022, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/483 "2022-05-29T18:50:38Z")
Much of the discussion about school hardening is basically theatrical in nature, it has no real relationship with reality. On some very thin meta level, yes having more physically secured schools is good because if they will prevent any mass shootings it’s probably worth the level of investment seen thus far, but it’s mostly a ploy by politicians who don’t want to legislate on guns to change the topic to a more palatable political discussion about throwing some money at school districts. The dramatic expansion of armed police in schools, however, is potentially questionable. Not just due to cost, but because there is a negative cost of having police in schools if they serve no positive purpose, and there’s at least some decent evidence that many school resource offers arrest black and brown students for minor behavioral infractions at much higher rates than is found in majority white schools. This suggests that having these officers in our schools may be enough of a negative, that it isn’t worthwhile for what appears to be a very low percent chance such an officer could stop or preven ta school shooting (since several large scale school shootings have occurred at schools that have such officers.) ---
**Author:** ![BeepKillBeep](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/9e8a1a/32.png) [@BeepKillBeep](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BeepKillBeep)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2022, 10:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/484 "2022-05-29T22:30:46Z")
> [@Martin\_Hyde](#): > > school resource offers arrest black and brown students for minor behavioral infractions For Republicans, that’s a feature not a bug. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/485 "2022-05-30T00:53:32Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > So - statistically - how dangerous are schools? I’m in an airport about to leave so I can’t answer that question now but I think this is relevant: > **[Firearms overtook auto accidents as the leading cause of death in children](https://www.npr.org/2022/04/22/1094364930/firearms-leading-cause-of-death-in-children)** > > The change occurred in 2020, researchers say. Overall firearm-related deaths increased 13.5% between 2019 and 2020, but such fatalities for those 1 to 19 years old jumped nearly 30%. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/486 "2022-05-30T01:28:54Z")
Wasn’t there a shitload less driving in 2020? I suspect it’s more of an issue of car deaths going way down than gun deaths going up. (On reread, up 30% is a huge increase no matter how you slice it.) Is there data for 2021 yet? ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/487 "2022-05-30T01:36:30Z")
Don’t think so. Here’s the link to the centre for Disease Control - Fast Stats. All the stats are for 2020 > **[FastStats](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm)** > > FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/488 "2022-05-30T02:11:54Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > So - statistically - how dangerous are schools? How likely is it for a minor to be injured/die as a result of an armed attacker while in a school? Compared to other “health” dangers? AFAICT from Whack-a-Mole’s linked cite, mass shootings are described as “the smallest part of the problem” of gun deaths of children. School shootings are extremely rare compared to the size of school populations. [A child or teen’s (up to 19 years of age) chances of being killed in a school shooting in the US are estimated at about 1 in 2 million,](https://www.webmd.com/parenting/news/20190816/school-shootings-and-lockdowns-how-do-kids-cope) with [about 50 such deaths per year](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/coe/indicator/a01). Total juvenile gun deaths add up to [about 1300 annually](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-children-gun-casualties/nearly-1300-u-s-kids-die-from-gunshot-wounds-each-year-idUSKBN19A2HF), or around 25 times as many as school-shooting deaths, for a risk level of about 1 in 80,000. (I’m not sure about that number, since [the corresponding number for 2020 was 4357, which besides being much higher was described as a “30% jump”,](https://www.npr.org/2022/04/22/1094364930/firearms-leading-cause-of-death-in-children) so the 1300 figure may be quite outdated.) It’s still very unlikely that any individual child will die by firearms, much less in a school shooting. But firearms are now more likely to kill a child than car accidents are, or cancer, or drowning, or poisoning, or any other kind of disease or accident. And unlike those other risks, the gun death risk for children has been increasing. So it’s understandably a cause for concern even though the likelihood is still quite low on average. ---
**Author:** ![Great\_Antibob](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47c2d/32.png) [@Great\_Antibob](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Great_Antibob)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/489 "2022-05-30T02:31:05Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Wasn’t there a shitload less driving in 2020? I suspect it’s more of an issue of car deaths going way down than gun deaths going up. (On reread, up 30% is a huge increase no matter how you slice it.) While that may be a factor, most civilized people should agree that it shouldn’t even be so close in the first place that a single anomalous year with less driving would flip things. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/490 "2022-05-30T03:21:31Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > Wasn’t there a shitload less driving in 2020? I suspect it’s more of an issue of car deaths going way down than gun deaths going up. (On reread, up 30% is a huge increase no matter how you slice it.) Here’s another NPR article, with a graph showing a large decline in motor vehicle deaths since 2000, and a smaller but steady increase in gun deaths over the same period. The drop in driving in 2020 may have accelerated the cross-over between the two rates, but it was going to happen, I would say. > **[The U.S. is uniquely terrible at protecting children from gun violence](https://www.npr.org/2022/05/28/1101307932/texas-shooting-uvalde-gun-violence-children-teenagers)** > > The massacre in Uvalde, Texas, was yet another grim reminder that in the U.S., children are more likely to die from gun violence than in any other wealthy nation. And it's getting worse. ETA: just noticed that there was actually an uptick in motor vehicle deaths in 2020, according to that chart. Just that the uptick in firearms deaths that year was higher. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/491 "2022-05-30T03:46:22Z")
That’s interesting, and my hypothesis was clearly wrong. I wonder why car deaths have been steadily declining since 2000? Seatbelt laws had already been in effect for 20 years by then. Airbags becoming more standard, maybe? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/492 "2022-05-30T04:34:27Z")
Airbags, stability control, crumple zone designs, stronger materials, monitoring equipment like backup cameras. It may also be related to the fact that [young people have been driving much less than their counterparts in previous generations](https://medium.com/swlh/american-teens-are-driving-less-and-the-reasons-are-more-than-economic-4cf6217375a1). New and/or young drivers are notoriously at higher risk for accidents, and a combination of economic factors, convenient remote communication, and personal preferences has led to a slowdown in youth driving. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Librarian](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_librarian/32/402_2.png) [@The\_Librarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Librarian)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 6:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/493 "2022-05-30T06:02:46Z")
Road design is slowly improving. Cars are getting safer, some modern features even improve safety for pedestrians. ---
**Author:** ![EllisDee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ellisdee/32/4531_2.png) [@EllisDee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EllisDee)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/494 "2022-05-30T06:14:01Z")
Yep that all makes sense. Apologies for the hijack; we should probably drop it now. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/495 "2022-05-30T11:24:55Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > So - statistically - how dangerous are schools? School shootings are like airline crashes, statistically insignificant, but highly impactful. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 11:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/496 "2022-05-30T11:32:52Z")
> [@Kimstu](#): > > AFAICT from Whack-a-Mole’s linked cite, mass shootings are described as “the smallest part of the problem” of gun deaths of children. That was pretty much what I was thinking. > [@Crane](#): > > School shootings are like airline crashes, statistically insignificant, but highly impactful. But, as such, perhaps not the best basis for forming broad policy. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/497 "2022-05-30T11:35:18Z")
> [@Dinsdale](#): > > perhaps not the best basis for forming broad policy Would you apply that to airline safety? ---
**Author:** ![madmonk28](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madmonk28/32/20811_2.png) [@madmonk28](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madmonk28)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/498 "2022-05-30T11:54:10Z")
School shootings are one of the ways children die by guns, which is the single largest cause of death in children. And it’s preventable. School shootings are an entry point for improving public safety by establishing reasonable gun control measures. ---
**Author:** ![Crafter\_Man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crafter_man/32/458_2.png) [@Crafter\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crafter_Man)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 12:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/499 "2022-05-30T12:00:09Z")
> [@EllisDee](#): > > I wonder why car deaths have been steadily declining since 2000? In addition to much safer vehicles, hospitals have better life-saving procedures & equipment vs. 20 years ago. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2022, 12:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036/500 "2022-05-30T12:04:59Z")
But that doesn’t apply to gunshot wounds ? Why doesn’t improvements in medical care reduce fatalities from gunshot wounds? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036.md?page=24) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/uvalde-texas-school-shooting-the-political-thread/965036.md?page=26)