Is that the same upper airway viral load that tells us kids might be more contagious than real world evidence is showing? Yeah, I think it is.
It’s important to note that the “kids” referred to are under 5, and the “real world evidence” referred to is for 5-15.
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Also, it is known that people who get COVID in the ordinary way, and never develop symptoms have low-but-not-zero infectivity. If people who are vaccinated, subsequently get a sub-clinical asymptomatic form of the disease, the most likely outcome is that they will have low-but-not-zero infectivity. And if that happens often, we’ll try to move to a different vaccine.
Is it important to note that because under 5 yr olds are in fact seen to be infectious with real world evidence? Or because 5-15 yr olds haven’t been found to have relatively high upper track viral loads as well? I’m curious.
5-15 have been found to have lower viral loads in general.
There seems to be evidence that 5-15 are less infectious and less infected. That’s important for schools.
The evidence for under 5 is less clear. On reason there is less evidence about under-5s is that there is less research on under-5s. What does exist points to there being a qualitative difference.
I know a pre-school teacher who is terrified. I’d like to re-assure her that she’s not in much danger around kindergarten kids … but I can’t.
And when stuff like this comes out, it’s not pointing in the direction of zero risk. There hasn’t been any major outbreak in Australia that has been traced to an under-5 super- infector, but I’ve not seen anything that rules out the possibility. Maybe the under-5s just don’t get out to bars and restaurants as much.
In a radio interview I heard a couple of nights ago, the expert being interviewed mentioned that the polio vaccine, and hepatitis B vaccine are ones that do not prevent disease transmission. I found the examples interesting – thought others might as well.
What I’ve read is that the peak viral load of truly asymptomatic individuals appear to be similar to symptomatic patients. The difference is that asymptomatic people clear the virus several days sooner than symptomatic patients. However, they may still shed virus for days. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2666-5247(20)30172-5
Hopefully, the vaccine will be a step above this situation since the body will already be primed for infection.
One of the important take-aways from that review is that viral shedding can not be used as a measure of infectiousness.