# Variables for Donald Trump to win the election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 5, 2016, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806 "2016-08-05T03:13:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 7, 2016, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806/61 "2016-08-07T18:30:07Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Do I think it’ll be a major factor in the race? No, I don’t. I only responded to point out that she sometimes has a problem of stinking it up in front of crowds and in interviews. She’s not a telegenic candidate. So while this one gaffe won’t be an issue, the larger inability to connect with voters without appearing stilted or Al Goreish…will be a lingering source of concern. Speaking gaffes are not going to cost Clinton this election. But you have to acknowledge the reality that Trump makes more speaking gaffes in an average week than Clinton will make in this entire campaign. Hillary Clinton isn’t perfect. But she doesn’t have to be perfect to win. She just has to be better than Donald Trump. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 2:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806/62 "2016-08-08T14:22:55Z")
Somehow I feel as though something’s going to happen on September. If nothing happens in September, it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![E-DUB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/e-dub/32/403_2.png) [@E-DUB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/E-DUB)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806/63 "2016-08-08T14:40:42Z")
ultimate11 wrote: "Somehow I feel as though something’s going to happen on September. If nothing happens in September, it’s over. " They’re called _October_ surprises for a reason. Personally I’d expect it maybe even in November just before the election so people only have the time to react to it _viscerally_, and not have time for the reasoning process to sink in. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806/64 "2016-08-08T14:54:50Z")
The “October Surprise” has been a thing in US politics ever since I can remember. (And Wiki claims the phrase originated in 1972, so, yeah). The only one that had a chance of swinging the election may have been Hurricane Sandy in 2012… but that didn’t come close to doing so, and wasn’t of human origin anyway. I see that Romney’s “47%” comment is listed by Wiki as a OS, though it actually came out in mid-September. > **[October surprise](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_surprise)** > > In the politics of the United States, an October surprise is a news event that may influence the outcome of an upcoming November election (particularly one for the presidency), whether deliberately planned or spontaneously occurring. Because the date for national elections (as well as many state and local elections) is in early November, events that take place in October have greater potential to influence the decisions of prospective voters and allow less time to take remedial action; thus, rel... ---
**Author:** ![chargerrich](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chargerrich/32/5399_2.png) [@chargerrich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chargerrich)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806/65 "2016-08-08T17:48:12Z")
You forgot one… Trump will win if Aliens descend upon Earth (and 'Merica) and reveal that Hillary is actually their Alien overlord who feeds on earthling babies. Of course this all must happen on live TV (Fox of course) If and only if this happens, Trump will win by 4 points and Alec Baldwin and I can move to France 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [August 8, 2016, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806/66 "2016-08-08T18:11:10Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > She said it – she didn’t mean it, but she said it. Uh, [nope](http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2016/aug/05/donald-trump/donald-trump-wrongly-says-hillary-clinton-wants-ra/). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/variables-for-donald-trump-to-win-the-election/761806.md?page=3)