# Veep announcement \[Romney picks Paul Ryan\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 11, 2012, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157 "2012-08-11T03:40:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 24
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 14, 2012, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/462 "2012-08-14T23:54:55Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Next thing you’re going to claim is that Jesus was against tax cuts for the rich. Obligatory link to [Supply Side Jesus.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AK7gI5lMB7M) ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2012, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/463 "2012-08-15T00:59:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Tracking poll shows Romney with a 2-point lead. The most [Republican-leaning](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/) pollster this year shows the Republican has a lead? Well, knock me over with a feather! ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2012, 1:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/464 "2012-08-15T01:05:52Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > He probably is talking about a different Thomas Aquinas. Fuckity fuck fuck, I go nose milk all over my keyboard. Those sort of posts should come with a warning “swallow (or spit out) anything in your mouth before reading” > [@BobLibDem](#): > > Obligatory link to [Supply Side Jesus.](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AK7gI5lMB7M) hehe Ive never seen this. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2012, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/465 "2012-08-15T01:26:26Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > …Those sort of posts should come with a warning “swallow (or spit out) anything in your mouth before reading”… I want to commend all the Dopers who restrained themselves from offering a juvenile and salacious riposte for this straight line. In heartfelt respect for this dignified and mature display of self-discipline, I will abstain equally. Even if it kills me. Which it might. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2012, 6:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/466 "2012-08-15T06:26:17Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > And you do know that the Obama administration only wants to allow the tax cuts on the rich to expire, right? Having them all expire was never on the table. This is on my table. I am willing to pay more tax if everyone else pays more tax. Maybe only a 1% income tax bracket for the lowest earners though. But yeah, repeal all the Bush tax cuts, that is ok with me. ---
**Author:** ![gamerunknown](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/6bbea6/32.png) [@gamerunknown](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gamerunknown)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2012, 12:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/467 "2012-08-15T12:26:17Z")
> [@jshore](#): > > Great…Ryan rejects Ayn Rand’s philosophy for its one redeeming feature! I prefer the nutbag Christian libertarians. They may have to rely on a misreading of scripture in order to justify their political beliefs, but at least they think there is a divine justice to affairs on earth. Atheist libertarians believe that people will suffer, die, be consigned to oblivion for all eternity and should accept such a hierarchy because it means that said atheist libertarians will have, at least, the delight of the torment of others. Because if we were all equal, that’d be boring. > [@Leaper](#): > > So if you believe what Sam Stone says, does that mean that if/when private charity fails to pick up the slack left behind by gutting government services, they can just blame liberals for “not contributing enough”? For maximum dissension, alternate between blaming liberals for stinginess and the poor for dying inconveniently. Then hope the internecine antipathy doesn’t hamper the productivity of labour. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [August 15, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/468 "2012-08-15T18:14:41Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > This is on my table. I am willing to pay more tax if everyone else pays more tax. Maybe only a 1% income tax bracket for the lowest earners though. But yeah, repeal all the Bush tax cuts, that is ok with me. +1 Shared sacrifice should be shared but if it can’t be shared it should be borne by those best able to bear it. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/469 "2012-08-16T00:55:23Z")
Polling update: Four swing states polled, Romney leads in three of them: [http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) Just brought that up since there seems to be a lot of certainty here that the Ryan pick dooms Romney. If so, there isn’t any evidence of it yet. ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/470 "2012-08-16T01:55:27Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Polling update: Four swing states polled, Romney leads in three of them: > > [http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) > > Just brought that up since there seems to be a lot of certainty here that the Ryan pick dooms Romney. If so, there isn’t any evidence of it yet. A bump is expected after a VP announcement so this is completely unsurprising, unalarming and not indicative of how America will feel once they’re fully introduced to Ryan on the national stage. He’ll tank the ticket faster than Palin did. Watch. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 2:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/471 "2012-08-16T02:09:34Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > A bump is expected after a VP announcement so this is completely unsurprising, unalarming and not indicative of how America will feel once they’re fully introduced to Ryan on the national stage. He’ll tank the ticket faster than Palin did. Watch. Indeed, a bump is expected and when one looks at the past, and it does not really tell us what the result of the election would be. [http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/aug-14-the-fog-of-polling-and-ryans-bounce-so-far/#more-33192](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/14/aug-14-the-fog-of-polling-and-ryans-bounce-so-far/#more-33192) > [@](#): > > As I noted on Saturday, past vice-presidential announcements have typically been greeted with a small “bounce” in the polls. Harry J. Enten, at The Guardian, has run the numbers on this for vice-presidential announcements dating back to 1984. He finds a net gain of four percentage points in the polls — and a mean of six — for the party that just named its new running mate. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/472 "2012-08-16T02:46:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Polling update: Four swing states polled, Romney leads in three of them: > > [http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) > > Just brought that up since there seems to be a lot of certainty here that the Ryan pick dooms Romney. If so, there isn’t any evidence of it yet. Interestingly, in two of those polls which show Romney leading in a swing state, Obama’s numbers _improved_ compared to the previous poll by that pollster. In other words, in two of those swing states, Romney had a negative bounce: [cite.](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/aug-15-to-bounce-or-not-to-bounce/) ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/473 "2012-08-16T02:46:47Z")
… and long-leggedy beasties, and things that go bump in the polls… ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/474 "2012-08-16T12:58:51Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > A bump is expected after a VP announcement so this is completely unsurprising, unalarming and not indicative of how America will feel once they’re fully introduced to Ryan on the national stage. He’ll tank the ticket faster than Palin did. Watch. Maybe. That depends on whether Democrats can define him before he defines himself. Given that Obama blew a ton of money and is now being outraised, I’m not sure how Democrats will do that. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/475 "2012-08-16T13:01:30Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Maybe. That depends on whether Democrats can define him before he defines himself. Given that Obama blew a ton of money and is now being outraised, I’m not sure how Democrats will do that. The more that Romney puts himself on television, the better for Obama. The Romneys whine so much on camera that it’s time they changed their first names to Doug and Wendy. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 1:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/476 "2012-08-16T13:21:28Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Maybe. That depends on whether Democrats can define him before he defines himself. You don’t think that’s happened already? And that he hasn’t done most of the job himself? There were already serious rumblings among the Serious Set even before his widely-resonating tax stonewalling, based on his bungled trip to Europe, of Romney _disqualifying himself_ in the minds of too much of the electorate. Disqualifying. ---
**Author:** ![Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/8edcca/32.png) [@Hentor\_the\_Barbarian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hentor_the_Barbarian)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/477 "2012-08-16T13:27:35Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Polling update: Four swing states polled, Romney leads in three of them: > > [http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest\_polls/](http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/) > > Just brought that up since there seems to be a lot of certainty here that the Ryan pick dooms Romney. If so, there isn’t any evidence of it yet. Oh, that’s just precious! I hope you’ll stick with the updates over time! I mention that because you used to talk about the poll numbers and then you stopped for a long time. I notice you haven’t mentioned Nate Silver and [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) for a while. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 1:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/478 "2012-08-16T13:37:22Z")
The Franklin & Marshall poll out of PA showed a better bounce than the others so far - probably bringing the average bounce up to 2% or so (from \<1%). Still a bit anemic - now we see if it has any staying power past this week. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/479 "2012-08-16T13:39:46Z")
Zogby showed a big bounce in the youth vote for Romney if nowhere else. Given that the young are most favorable towards Ryan’s plans, that shouldn’t be surprising. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/480 "2012-08-16T13:51:32Z")
Zogby, unfortunately, isn’t worth paying any attention to. All other pollsters you can at least glean some information from the trends and by adjusting for house effects - Zogby is best ignored entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2012, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/481 "2012-08-16T14:09:01Z")
And, oh no!, the daily Rasmussen is back to Romney +1. The bounce is gone! Note: I don’t really believe this, but if we’re going to jump on every poll we probably need to be consistent about it, eh? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157.md?page=23) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157.md?page=25)