# Veep announcement \[Romney picks Paul Ryan\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 11, 2012, 3:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157 "2012-08-11T03:40:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/81 "2012-08-11T14:34:01Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > That’s some serious widow’s peak he’s got going! Reminds me of Eddie Munster. I thought the same thing. Even money Colbert jumps on that Monday night. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/82 "2012-08-11T14:46:18Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > That’s the key. Can Team Romney define Ryan before Obama does? It didn’t work out for Romney, who’s negatives have spiked under the barrage of ads - and they didn’t even have the Ryan Budget to work with. Well, right now Romney’s got a money advantage, doesn’t he? And plenty of free media coverage for Paul Ryan to make his case directly. Followed quickly by the convention. That’s why the VP selection usually gets announced close to the convention, precisely so that the opponent won’t have a chance to define him before he defines himself. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/83 "2012-08-11T14:47:39Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Well, right now Romney’s got a money advantage, doesn’t he? He hasn’t used it very effectively, has he? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/84 "2012-08-11T14:56:07Z")
Hasn’t used it much at all, at least relative to the President’s burn rate. But I don’t think he’s planning to sit on it forever. Now that he’s got a controversial VP pick, he has to rush to define Ryan positively. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 2:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/85 "2012-08-11T14:57:31Z")
Well, at least we finally have an event that isn’t just part of the silly season, but although everyone loves to talk about the VP pick, almost everyone also admits it doesn’t matter. Except, of course, when the presidential candidate pulls a bonehead move and picks Sarah Palin. Ryan will energize the base, at least temporarily, and maybe even shift the debate toward substantive policy issues. But it’s still a choice between Obama and Romney, and Romney needs to make the case as to why we should fire Obama and hire him. So far, he hasn’t done that, and I don’t see him being able to do that going forward. His only hope is that there is some major disaster either economically or otherwise between now and November. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/86 "2012-08-11T15:01:54Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Now that he’s got a controversial VP pick, he has to rush to define Ryan positively. My point is, based on his own failure to define himself, I don’t think he knows how. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/87 "2012-08-11T15:03:48Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > My point is, based on his own failure to define himself, I don’t think he knows how. That’s what he has a campaign staff for. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/88 "2012-08-11T15:13:09Z")
Well, **adaher** is right about one thing: Making a risky pick was the correct strategic decision for Romney. His 22% chance of victory is basically predicated on the possibility of a Hail Mary pass completing, so if he wants to win, he needs to throw one (or more). Of course, if his first big gamble doesn’t work (as is likely, since it is after all a big gamble), then we get into a sort of political Martingale that leads to exponentially-growing silliness. ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/89 "2012-08-11T15:22:16Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > That’s what he has a campaign staff for. So what have they been doing until now? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/90 "2012-08-11T15:22:56Z")
Ryan is a horrible choice, but ultimately the vp choice matters little. I see some parts saying this makes the election about entitlements. Doubtful. Vice Presidents do not drive the narrative (Palon was an outlier). ---
**Author:** ![gaffa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e68b1a/32.png) [@gaffa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gaffa)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/91 "2012-08-11T15:29:03Z")
Romney introduced Ryan as “the next President of the United States”. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/92 "2012-08-11T15:29:34Z")
At first I was scratching my head and wondering what this pick brought to the table, but after deliberation, I agree with it. I think that the Romney campaign had a serious discussion and decided that barring anything unusual, Romney would lose by 3 points. The polls have been stagnant for most of the year. A Pawlenty, Portman, Rubio, or Jindal pick would have been boring, more of the same, and lead to a 3 point Romney loss. He had to mix things up a bit. He floated the idea of Rice a few weeks ago and it went no where. He would get a backlash from his base and really, apart from being a black woman, what does she add to the Romney ticket? Too many downsides and near zero upsides. Ryan, however, can and likely WILL change this race. By throwing down the gauntlet on entitlements, there will be a shift in the polls. I may mean that Romney loses by 9 instead of 3, but it might also mean he wins by 5 instead of losing by 3. But that’s not much of a downside because as another poster said, a 9 point loss is as bad as a 1 point loss. Gore in 2000 and Mondale in 1984 both equally did not become President. If Ryan (and Romney) can be articulate and persuasive, stay on message, and convince voters that this reform is a better way and that current recipients aren’t in danger, it could be the winning pick. I can’t see a better one. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/93 "2012-08-11T15:31:08Z")
> [@brickbacon](#): > > Romney just said, “welcome the next PRESIDENT of the United States, Paul Ryan” I saw an interesting comment that Romney may have conceded defeat and so is setting Ryan up for a 2016 run. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/94 "2012-08-11T15:31:25Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > …but although everyone loves to talk about the VP pick, almost everyone also admits it doesn’t matter… > > … > > His only hope is that there is some major disaster either economically or otherwise between now and November. While certainly no expert on the effect of VP candidates in presidential elections, I have to agree and think that it really isn’t all that important. As for major disasters, if this is Romney’s only hope, yeah, it’s pretty much over. It would be interesting if there were any studies done on the largest swings in potential voting, based on polling, vs. actual voting come election day, and what if any occurrences precipitated them. Not that the gap now is extremely large, but based on what seem to be the most objective polls, it’s going to be hard to overcome, I think. ETA: I forgot to mention, I have my umbrella out, so go ahead, give me your best! 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/95 "2012-08-11T15:33:06Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > By throwing down the gauntlet on entitlements, there will be a shift in the polls. Republicans are already strongly anti-entitlements. That’s not new. The interesting thing here - and I can’t take credit for this observation - is that Romney has not been specific about his plans at all, and now he’s taking on Ryan’s detailed plan (the parts he agrees with and the parts he doesn’t). ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/96 "2012-08-11T15:41:18Z")
> [@Fear\_Itself](#): > > So what have they been doing until now? Embarrassing him, mainly. ---
**Author:** ![Enkel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/df705f/32.png) [@Enkel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Enkel)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/97 "2012-08-11T15:41:56Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > If Ryan (and Romney) can be articulate and persuasive, stay on message, and convince voters that this reform is a better way and that current recipients aren’t in danger, it could be the winning pick. I can’t see a better one. Don’t forget that a lot of current recipients have children. So, just because they aren’t personally affected (except for the case that can be made that once they go to the voucher system, what’s to stop them from going further the next year), many wouldn’t want their children to be screwed over. I hope the idea of removing the income cap on SS tax is brought up in the campaign. If they simply removed that income cap (and treated capital gains as income), then SS wouldn’t have any problems. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/98 "2012-08-11T15:43:44Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Republicans are already strongly anti-entitlements. That’s not new. The interesting thing here - and I can’t take credit for this observation - is that Romney has not been specific about his plans at all, and now he’s taking on Ryan’s detailed plan (the parts he agrees with and the parts he doesn’t). Correct. Mitt is throwing something concrete out there and setting the tone of the campaign: (You may disagree with this message, but I’m sure we will debate it in other threads) Fellow Americans, this country is headed towards Greece because of failed leadership. We have to get entitlements under control. The President has no plan except to reduce 10% of this downward slide by raising taxes on people who might create your next high paying job. The other 90% he has no answer for. We do! All senior citizens currently receiving Medicare will continue on it. No changes. For younger people we have a proposal that will keep costs down and give you more of a voice and more choice in your healthcare. We have a plan. What does the President have? Nothing. He has class warfare, disrespect for business owners, and the idea that you can’t do anything without the government. Romney/Ryan thinks more of the American people than that. ---
**Author:** ![pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/a9a28c/32.png) [@pseudotriton\_ruber\_ruber](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pseudotriton_ruber_ruber)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/99 "2012-08-11T15:54:52Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I think you left out the word “sitting” between “first” and “Congressman”. Forgive me for the nitpick but it took a minute to understand what you meant. JFK was elected to the Senate in 1952 and re-elected in 1958. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2012, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157/100 "2012-08-11T16:04:02Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > And Ryan’s been confirmed as Romney’s choice. > > [Republican Romney names Paul Ryan as running mate - BBC News](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-19224423) For a second, i thought you said Ayn Rand has been confirmed as Romney’s choice. And in a way, I was right. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/veep-announcement-romney-picks-paul-ryan/631157.md?page=6)