# Violent Crime in the UK **URL:** \ **Category:** Cecil's Columns/Staff Reports\ **Created:** [September 27, 2006, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426 "2006-09-27T23:05:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Ardent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@Ardent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ardent)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2006, 11:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/1 "2006-09-27T23:05:19Z")
The murder rate for England and Wales is showing its first sustained fall since the 1960s, according to the annual crime figures published today. A total of 765 people were killed, including the 52 victims of the July 7 bombings in the 12 months to April 2006. This is the third successive year that homicides in England and Wales fell and are down from a peak of 1,047 in 2002 which included the murders committed by Harold Shipman. One of the most dramatic falls in the last 12 months is in the number of fatal shootings which have fallen from 77 to 46 largely as a result of targeted police operations. [Murder rate declines but Home Office battles against belief that things are getting worse | Politics | The Guardian](http://society.guardian.co.uk/crimeandpunishment/story/0,,1824693,00.h) tml * * * I presume the column you’re referencing is: [Have Great Britain’s restrictive gun laws contributed to the rise in violent crime?](http://www.straightdope.com/columns/041105.html) – CKDH ---
**Author:** ![Ardent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@Ardent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ardent)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2006, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/2 "2006-09-27T23:14:51Z")
There are major problems with respect to the United Nations International Crime and Victimisation Study. The smaller a study the less reliable it is, and the less people who participate the less reliable it is. Surveys over the telephone have major methodological problems. The BCS, SCS and NICS are not a reliable measure of crime according to their authors, they merely offer an insight in to some peoples experience. The ICVS with a tiny survey group, patchy coverage and low participation is no where near as reliable or indeed comprehensive as the ‘unreliable’ national surveys. Hospital Violent Crime Data The BCS is at least backed up by Professor J.P Shepherd and his team at Cardiff Medical School who use hospital emergency and other data from across england and wales regarding the treatment of violent injuries in order to paint a more accurate picture. The Violence and Society Research Group at Cardiff Med School offers an analysis beyond that of mere questionaires, although there research does back up the figures presented by the British Crime Survey. Violence Research Group, University of Wales College of Medicine, Heath Park, Cardiff This research note draws attention to an alternative source of data on violence in England and Wales obtained from A&E departments. The data is monthly frequency, classified by gender and age. “The advantage of A&E data is that case identification depends not on the perception that a crime has been committed, but on the presence of injury deemed to require medical treatment. We examine the incidence of violent injury by gender and health region and find that the statistics are consistent with BCS estimates of overall violence” > **[Violence‐related Injury Data in England and Wales. An Alternative Data Source...](https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/43/1/223/485870)** > > Abstract. This research note draws attention to an alternative source of data on violence in England and Wales obtained from A&E departments. The data is mo > **[BBC NEWS | UK | Wales | Violent crimes see 'sharp drop'](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/4480525.stm)** > > A Cardiff University study of casualty units finds that violent crime has fallen over the past five years. The report also said that police statistics over the last 10 years have given an unreliable picture of violence because they list reported crime, rather than what is subsequently confirmed as a crime. It stated: “Thus, far from representing a cause of concern, increases in violence recorded by police often signal decreases in serious violence.” The report concluded there were “significant overall decreases” in serious violence across all age groups and genders. The Scottish Crime Survey. The Scottish Crime Survey (SCS), a large scale household survey of public experiences and perceptions of crime, involving interviews with a sample of 5,041 adults (aged 16 or over) throughout Scotland. As with all previous sweeps of the SCS, the 2003 SCS relates to crimes that took place during the previous calendar year; that is, between January and December 2002. [http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079](http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079) The SCS is quite a good survey as it has a reasonable sample of over 5,000 for a country of 5 million, thats 1000 per million, if the ICVS were to sample a similar percentage of population in the US they would need to interview 300,000 people and not less than 2000 of which only 40% actually participated. The ICVS used a survey group of 37,000 for 22 Countries with over a billion in population and there was even low participation among the 37,000. To be as accurate as the SCS or indeed the BCS they would have to have interviewed face to face over 1 million people. The criticisms of the SCS are similar to the criticisms relavent to all crime surveys however the SCS has a large survey group which makes it more accurate and uses face to face interviews which also increases accuracy. There are some limitations to victimisation surveys, and the SCS is no exception. The SCS does not provide a complete picture of crime in Scotland. It is a survey of adults living in private households and does not, therefore, provide information on crimes against people not living in private households (for example those in hospital, prison or homeless); those under the age of 16; and crimes against corporate bodies (for example shoplifting). Another limitation of the SCS is that it is not a perfectly reliable measure of crime. The survey is only representative of the experience of the people who agree to take part; the fewer people who participate, the less likely it is that the survey reflects the experiences of the people of Scotland as a whole. There might also be errors in the recall of participants. It is also possible that public perceptions of crime and victimisation may change over time, and result in changes in how people report crime from survey to survey. An example may be increased reporting of domestic violence, although in the ICVS this could be further intensified by cultural differences. [http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079](http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079) The ICVS interviews 2,000 people in America, only 40% decided to participate in the surve. The British Crime Survey (BCS) has moved to an annual cycle from 2001/02, with over 50,000 face to face interviews of people aged 16 or over in England and Wales [http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs1.html](http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs1.html) Northern Ireland Crime Survey (NICS) > **[Home - Office for National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/)** > > The UK's largest independent producer of official statistics and the recognised national statistical institute of the UK. Based on findings from the 2003/04 Northern Ireland Crime Survey (NICS), a personal interview survey of the experiences and perceptions of crime of 3,104 adults living in private households throughout Northern Ireland that closely mirrors the core format and questions of the British Crime Survey (BCS). The population of Northern Ireland is 1.7 million and there are 3,104 adult surveyed more than the ICVS uses for the whole of the United States of America with a population of 300 million and there is a far higher participation in the NICS than is evident in the ICVS. Indeed America has one of the lowest levels of participation in the ICVS. ---
**Author:** ![Ardent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@Ardent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ardent)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2006, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/3 "2006-09-27T23:13:58Z")
There are major problems with respect to the United Nations International Crime and Victimisation Study. The smaller a study the less reliable it is, and the less people who participate the less reliable it is. Surveys over the telephone have major methodological problems see the study above. The BCS, SCS and NICS are not a reliable measure of crime according to their authors, they merely offer an insight in to some peoples experience. The ICVS with a tiny survey group, patchy coverage and low participation is no where near as reliable or indeed comprehensive as the ‘unreliable’ national surveys. Hospital Violent Crime Data The BCS is at least backed up by Professor J.P Shepherd and his team at Cardiff Medical School who use hospital emergency and other data from across england and wales regarding the treatment of violent injuries in order to paint a more accurate picture. The Violence and Society Research Group at Cardiff Med School offers an analysis beyond that of mere questionaires, although there research does back up the figures presented by the British Crime Survey. Violence Research Group, University of Wales College of Medicine, Heath Park, Cardiff This research note draws attention to an alternative source of data on violence in England and Wales obtained from A&E departments. The data is monthly frequency, classified by gender and age. “The advantage of A&E data is that case identification depends not on the perception that a crime has been committed, but on the presence of injury deemed to require medical treatment. We examine the incidence of violent injury by gender and health region and find that the statistics are consistent with BCS estimates of overall violence” > **[Violence‐related Injury Data in England and Wales. An Alternative Data Source...](https://academic.oup.com/bjc/article-abstract/43/1/223/485870)** > > Abstract. This research note draws attention to an alternative source of data on violence in England and Wales obtained from A&E departments. The data is mo > **[BBC NEWS | UK | Wales | Violent crimes see 'sharp drop'](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/wales/4480525.stm)** > > A Cardiff University study of casualty units finds that violent crime has fallen over the past five years. The report also said that police statistics over the last 10 years have given an unreliable picture of violence because they list reported crime, rather than what is subsequently confirmed as a crime. It stated: “Thus, far from representing a cause of concern, increases in violence recorded by police often signal decreases in serious violence.” The report concluded there were “significant overall decreases” in serious violence across all age groups and genders. The Scottish Crime Survey. The Scottish Crime Survey (SCS), a large scale household survey of public experiences and perceptions of crime, involving interviews with a sample of 5,041 adults (aged 16 or over) throughout Scotland. As with all previous sweeps of the SCS, the 2003 SCS relates to crimes that took place during the previous calendar year; that is, between January and December 2002. [http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079](http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079) The SCS is quite a good survey as it has a reasonable sample of over 5,000 for a country of 5 million, thats 1000 per million, if the ICVS were to sample a similar percentage of population in the US they would need to interview 300,000 people and not less than 2000 of which only 40% actually participated. The ICVS used a survey group of 37,000 for 22 Countries with over a billion in population and there was even low participation among the 37,000. To be as accurate as the SCS or indeed the BCS they would have to have interviewed face to face over 1 million people. The criticisms of the SCS are similar to the criticisms relavent to all crime surveys however the SCS has a large survey group which makes it more accurate and uses face to face interviews which also increases accuracy. There are some limitations to victimisation surveys, and the SCS is no exception. The SCS does not provide a complete picture of crime in Scotland. It is a survey of adults living in private households and does not, therefore, provide information on crimes against people not living in private households (for example those in hospital, prison or homeless); those under the age of 16; and crimes against corporate bodies (for example shoplifting). Another limitation of the SCS is that it is not a perfectly reliable measure of crime. The survey is only representative of the experience of the people who agree to take part; the fewer people who participate, the less likely it is that the survey reflects the experiences of the people of Scotland as a whole. There might also be errors in the recall of participants. It is also possible that public perceptions of crime and victimisation may change over time, and result in changes in how people report crime from survey to survey. An example may be increased reporting of domestic violence, although in the ICVS this could be further intensified by cultural differences. [http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079](http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2004/12/20379/48079) The ICVS interviews 2,000 people in America, only 40% decided to participate in the surve. The British Crime Survey (BCS) has moved to an annual cycle from 2001/02, with over 50,000 face to face interviews of people aged 16 or over in England and Wales [http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs1.html](http://www.homeoffice.gov.uk/rds/bcs1.html) Northern Ireland Crime Survey (NICS) > **[Home - Office for National Statistics](https://www.ons.gov.uk/)** > > The UK's largest independent producer of official statistics and the recognised national statistical institute of the UK. Based on findings from the 2003/04 Northern Ireland Crime Survey (NICS), a personal interview survey of the experiences and perceptions of crime of 3,104 adults living in private households throughout Northern Ireland that closely mirrors the core format and questions of the British Crime Survey (BCS). The population of Northern Ireland is 1.7 million and there are 3,104 adult surveyed more than the ICVS uses for the whole of the United States of America with a population of 300 million and there is a far higher participation in the NICS than is evident in the ICVS. Indeed America has one of the lowest levels of participation in the ICVS. ---
**Author:** ![Ardent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@Ardent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ardent)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2006, 8:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/4 "2006-09-28T08:51:39Z")
> [@](#): > > I presume the column you’re referencing is: Have Great Britain’s restrictive gun laws contributed to the rise in violent crime? – CKDH Yes that is the column. Did you realise that over half of all recorded violent crime in the UK results in no onjury to anyone whatsoever. That the British Crime Survey has shown a 44% drop in violent crime in the last ten years and this is backed up by ER Data. That the what Americans call violent crime in their police recorded crime figures and what the British do is massively different. The British figure is mainly made up of simple assaults, assaults with no injury such as verbal assaults and crimes the US police would not record as a felony. In 1998 with the change in police recordings an even greater percentage of minor crimes were recorded as violent offences. The number of serious violent offences in England and Wales is around 21,000 and is falling. That in order to claim compensation from the Criminal Injuries Compensation Authority (CICA) a violent crime must be recorded by the police and compensation ranges from £1000 ($2000) for more minor injures and mental trauma up to £250,000 ($500,000) for serious injuries. Likewise insurance companies need a police crime number before they will pay out on a burgulary, mugging or motor vehicle theft. That the history of violent crime is linked more to alcohol consumption than gun ownership and a recent study by Cardiff Medical School’s Violent Research Group ‘The Price of Beer and Violence in England’ concluded that for every 1% rise in alcohol prices violent crime fell massively and that where ever alcohol was cheapest in the UK more violence occurred. Finally what constitutes violence has also changed with one in four violent crimes and the largest rise in violent crime figures being in Domestic Violence Cases. Whilst violence generally is now tolerated less in society and is generally reported and detected via the large amaont of CCTV cameras in British Towns and Cities. The UK has more CCTV cameras than anywhere else in the world and a recent study showed that the detection of violent crime by police increased 11% in areas with CCTV cameras. Crime in the UK has not risen massively, in fact hospital data and large crime surveys show it falling, whilst police figures have shown a fall in more serious violent crime but due to changes in police figures more trivial offences are recorded. ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2006, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/5 "2006-09-28T12:14:13Z")
Welcome the boards **Ardent**. We had an [earlier discussion](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=284964) on this thread. The general concensus was it was one of Cecil’s worst ever article, littered with inummerable errors. Glad to see you’ve found some new ones. ---
**Author:** ![Ardent](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3be4f8/32.png) [@Ardent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ardent)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2006, 1:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/6 "2006-09-28T13:07:53Z")
Thanks 🙂 - it’s not that I feel that strongly about guns. It’s the fact that the UN ICVS survey is a very poor piece of work. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2006, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/7 "2006-09-28T22:45:08Z")
By the way, you don’t have to put line breaks in yourself. It’ll wrap automatically, and it’s a bit easier to read when it takes up more than the left 20% of the screen. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [September 29, 2006, 11:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/violent-crime-in-the-uk/374426/8 "2006-09-29T23:19:17Z")
[QUOTE=Chronos] By the way, you don’t have to put line breaks in yourself. [/QUOTE] Yes, you do [sub]if the police are watching…[/sub]