The assumption that just because one level of a technology is possible, all levels are. Again, we are talking about profoundly dense and complex nanotechnology in the human nervous system that is far beyond the most sophisticated electronics now in existance. You are taking it as an order of faith that you will be able to attach circuitry to living cells in an adult human in such a density as to reproduce all our senses, cause no interference with real senses, be inert enough to not cause any sort of rejection over a human lifetime, and be safe and easy to implant throughout the nervous system. And these circuits would–again–not only have to send electrical pulses but also a full menu of signaling molecules to the connected neurons–we know that microchips can transmit electrical pulses–how many do you know that can produce and transmit even one of these? Those are a lot of assumptions to make and sound more like faith in The Great God Technology than a sure thing.
Just pointing out (again) that it is very difficult however does nothing to defend your contention that it is magic or religion however.
People in Victorian England believed humans couldn’t survive at speeds much in excess of 30 mph. And then the sound barrier was the limit to feasible travel speeds. And 20 years ago the idea of combining the functions of a watch, calendar, telephone, and personal computer–with vastly more information available to it than an entire encyclopedia set–all in a unit smaller than a handheld calculator, was ridiculous. Dick Tracy’s telephone watch? Dumb. Powered artificial body parts, especially with anything approaching sensation, were pure sci-fi. Research is constantly improving our understanding of how stuff works, including our own nervous system. With that knowledge comes understandings of what we can do with it, what we can’t do, and how we can work around what we can’t do.
With humans and technology, it has always been true that if you tell someone Why, they will figure out How. It makes more sense to believe that will apply to VR, in any iteration you choose, than to declare the Difficult to be equivalent to the Impossible. Our relationship with tech just isn’t defined by such a total surrender.
Will VR destroy humanity? Will everyone in the future live in VR instead of the real world?
Unlikely.
Maybe by using mind uploading? Maybe by using Brain Computer interfaces?
More likely to be tech that hasn’t been developed yet.
And will it happen during out lifetimes?
No.
You are being selective in what improvements you look at. Yes, transistors have gotten smaller–but that trend is almost over now. And almost nothing else has improved on the same scale as computers–we don’t have thousand mile per gallon cars, we don’t have 10,000 mile per hour passenger jets, we don’t have energy too cheap to meter, we don’t have interstellar travel, and we are actually leaving the age of antibiotics.
Lookie here: 2000 mpg car! Prototype Car Gets 2,713 Miles Per Gallon
Yes, progress in some things has slowed. Often because the value of further improvement is smaller than the cost of further improvement.
But if the value is there, we have found ways to get there. And the point made, repeatedly, is that this progress may be nonlinear. While I don’t think this is THE solution, one possible avenue could conceivably be that the VR progress comes from bringing people into a hyper suggestible state, lowering the bar for the bandwidth and completeness of the input required.
I don’t know. That’s just it. The nature and extent of progress over larger chunks of time is unknowable. But just because YOU cannot conceive of it, doesn’t inherently mean that it cannot happen. To wit: the 2,700 mpg car.
So negative extrapolations (the pace of antibiotic research is slow right now, therefore it’s likely to continue to be slow) are fine, it’s just positive ones (the pace of improvements to neurological implants and neuroscience research in general is very fast right now, therefore it’s likely to continue to be) that are problematic?
ETA: I don’t know why I’m even engaging with what I consider to be a side issue. I think a vivid VR that most humans spend most of their time in is an inevitability – for good and ill. I don’t really care whether it happens in 50 years or 50 centuries.