# Votecastr: real-time election projections **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 8, 2016, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092 "2016-11-08T19:11:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Tangent](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tangent/32/3098_2.png) [@Tangent](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tangent)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/21 "2016-11-08T21:28:29Z")
> [@snoe](#): > > The main ethical argument against it I’ve heard is that it could affect votes in later states (west coast, the best coast). I’m skeptical that it’s significant in effect. Only politics nerds are checking Votecastr or whatever it’s called - those people are voting (or not voting) regardless. But what if CNN, FOX, MSNBC, etc. start reporting on the Votecastr projections? Then a lot more people are exposed to it than just politics nerds. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/22 "2016-11-08T21:31:24Z")
> [@Azeotrope](#): > > Why would we need one? Because as mentioned above, there’s some concern that they can alter voting. A bunch of countries have rules against exit polling and early result reporting. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/23 "2016-11-08T21:43:35Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > But do we know how it relative to total # of registered voters? What percentage has already voted this year vs. did in 2012? Unfortunately, they (Votecastr/Slate) didn’t elaborate. > **[VoteCastr Early Vote Estimate: Clinton Leads in Florida](https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2016/11/votecastr-early-vote-estimate-clinton-leads-in-florida.html)** > > We launched our collaboration with VoteCastr this morning with a look at the early vote out of Colorado, where Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump... ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/24 "2016-11-08T22:01:26Z")
Iowa might be ours, even Ohio looks possible. [http://media.fyre.co/OgTpsGpdSJyrnlGVE7wj\_445OmbnibusGraphic.png](http://media.fyre.co/OgTpsGpdSJyrnlGVE7wj_445OmbnibusGraphic.png) ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/25 "2016-11-08T23:10:21Z")
So, it’s been updated again. Has NH with Clinton ahead, but a couple other sites I’m looking at (The Guardian and NY Times) have it reddish at the moment, with 1% reporting. You know, those few who voted at midnight. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/26 "2016-11-08T23:10:55Z")
This kind of looks like a failure. PA shows “72 of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties match this criteria” and a while ago they removed the maps and put this note up instead: “The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated.” Still, the Florida totals show her ahead by an estimated 300k votes so far. That has probably got the HRC camp feeling elated. ETA: looks like they fixed PA now. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/27 "2016-11-08T23:12:33Z")
Current tracking of Florida (not votes counted, but their estimate) shows Clinton +3.2 in Florida. If this prediction holds, it’s game over for Trump. He cannot win without Florida. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/28 "2016-11-08T23:23:43Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > So, it’s been updated again. Has NH with Clinton ahead, but a couple other sites I’m looking at (The Guardian and NY Times) have it reddish at the moment, with 1% reporting. You know, those few who voted at midnight. The NH Senate race, which has consistently been neck and neck in the polls is +10 points in the red as well. My guess/hope is that whatever polls have reported lean heavily red. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/29 "2016-11-08T23:29:12Z")
I forget where I found this link first, but it’s kind of neat. These dudes, Cuebiq, are predicting voter turn out based on cellphone location data. They don’t talk in depth about their proprietary method of data collection. [http://www.cuebiq.com/election-day](http://www.cuebiq.com/election-day) > [@Cuebiq](#): > > About our Methodology: Leveraging its proprietary intelligence platform and data collection methodology, Cuebiq will be analyzing and measuring turnout on Election Day in polling stations for 13 swing states in real time. Via anonymized geo-behavioral and census data, Cuebiq will be determining likely political party affiliation for the voters at the polls. I think this is more of a proof-of-concept but it’s an interesting look at data collection methods of the The Future. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/30 "2016-11-08T23:31:27Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Current tracking of Florida (not votes counted, but their estimate) shows Clinton +3.2 in Florida. > > If this prediction holds, it’s game over for Trump. He cannot win without Florida. [This is even more striking in graph form.](http://media.fyre.co/ZZ6hq834R0yIseaHuh1W_Votes%20Ahead%20Key%20States.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/31 "2016-11-08T23:34:58Z")
> [@](#): > > The NH Senate race, which has consistently been neck and neck in the polls is +10 points in the red as well. My guess/hope is that whatever polls have reported lean heavily red. Well, on the The Guardian and NY Times, NH has fewer than 100 votes in - can’t do much with that. Any other sites you recommend I refresh all night? ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/32 "2016-11-08T23:37:19Z")
[Latest Election 2024 News and Updates | Fox News Elections Center](http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/events/elections-2016-live-blog) reports: > [@](#): > > Per Fox News’ Chad Pergram > > Fox News is told from several reliable Democratic sources with ties to Michigan that the state “will be tight.” > > According to those sources, the vote in Detroit is “way down” and returns are down in Flint. There is also rain complicating proceedings. If Trump were to win MI, then I could _barely_ draw [an outlandish map where he still wins while losing FL](http://www.270towin.com/), but it’d require essentially everything else to break his way (both PA and MI going to Trump being the most unlikely events). ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/33 "2016-11-08T23:38:49Z")
> [@Derleth](#): > > [This is even more striking in graph form.](http://media.fyre.co/ZZ6hq834R0yIseaHuh1W_Votes%20Ahead%20Key%20States.jpg) comparing raw vote margins isn’t particularly useful when you’re comparing FL (20 million residents) to IA (3 million residents) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/34 "2016-11-08T23:39:50Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > Well, on the The Guardian and NY Times, NH has fewer than 100 votes in - can’t do much with that. Any other sites you recommend I refresh all night? There’s like one goofy town that votes at midnight, just to say they’re the first place to vote. That’s all you’re seeing in NH so far. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/35 "2016-11-08T23:42:38Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > Well, on the The Guardian and NY Times, NH has fewer than 100 votes in - can’t do much with that. Any other sites you recommend I refresh all night? No, but fortunately NH polls close relatively early and it’s a low population state so IIRC it tends to be called early. ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/36 "2016-11-08T23:42:53Z")
> [@](#): > > There’s like one goofy town that votes at midnight, just to say they’re the first place to vote. That’s all you’re seeing in NH so far. I realize that. Just chatting. ---
**Author:** ![skdo23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a5b964/32.png) [@skdo23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/skdo23)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2016, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/37 "2016-11-08T23:52:01Z")
> [@Tzigone](#): > > I realize that. Just chatting. JohnT just posted this in the Prez. Election Day thread, sounds like good news. > ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 12:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/38 "2016-11-09T00:00:09Z")
> [@skdo23](#): > > JohnT just posted this in the Prez. Election Day thread, sounds like good news. > [x.com](https://twitter.com/KatyTurNBC/status/796126135830642688) Indeed it does. Looking forward to more real numbers coming in soon. Polls start closing any minute. Though not for a half hour for NH. ---
**Author:** ![Lobot](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/ce7236/32.png) [@Lobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobot)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 12:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/39 "2016-11-09T00:26:37Z")
The margin looks too big for Trump to close in Florida, as far as I can tell, going by the estimate. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2016, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092/40 "2016-11-09T00:48:04Z")
Yeah, I think the most reassuring thing I’ve heard all election is some Republican senator reassuring NPR that “Marco Rubio is leading Donald Trump by 10 points in South Florida.” What a weird way to spin that. If Clinton were losing Florida he’d say that Marco Rubio was leading Clinton or Murphy. Which means that Clinton has Florida in the bag so much, fingers crossed, that in order to make Rubio’s chances look good you need to compare them to Trump. And if Florida falls, it’s all over. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/votecastr-real-time-election-projections/771092.md?page=3)