# Voters as Markets **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 15, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634 "2020-11-15T14:58:48Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/1 "2020-11-15T14:58:48Z")
The campaign is really not a competition. It’s a matter of serving available markets. The current vote count 76.6M to 71.8M shows that we have two well defined voter populations that are close to equal in size. Each population of voters forms a different market. Each wants a different political product. The immediate future of politics is not to gain converts from one side to the other. It is to serve one of the two available markets. It is much like selling cars. You sell Lamborghinis to one market and Chevy SUVs to another. Lamborghinis do not sell well in the Chevy market and visa versa. You might get a few sales one way or the other but they aren’t worth the effort. In a like manner, the two political markets are clearly differentiated and each requires a unique product: Left - Governance as outlined in the Preamble to the Constitution, no drama, unity Right - Minimal governance, high entertainment, vengeance on the left. In example, Biden conducted a quiet campaign from his basement. Trump flew around holding raucous rallies and both garnered about the same number of votes. The polls indicate that little changed during the campaign. Each candidate served his market. The implications for 2024 - how well will potential candidates serve their markets: Harris - may be too strong and controversial for the left Rubio - not even a player for the right Cruz - Good theater, questionable charisma Palin - With management and a speech writer - unbeatable Trump - Warmed over Trump could still draw crowds. Miller - Charisma of a urinal cake, but could be coached Scott - Boring, corrupt technician Carlson - A most formidable candidate - poised Trump with a brain Romney - Could succeed as a Dem Biden - Most likely candidate The point - It’s not a competition for the minds of a single, large population. It’s a matter of meeting the expectations of two well defined market segments and getting your voters to the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/2 "2020-11-15T15:07:52Z")
The size of those markets may not change by conversion but they will change by demographics and turnout. Old people die, young people turn 18, people change state or are naturalized. But most of all, “markets” waver in their enthusiasm and apathy from election year to election year. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/3 "2020-11-15T15:15:04Z")
Good point. I do believe, though, that the Trump market is still in it’s ascendancy. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 9:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/4 "2020-11-15T21:40:19Z")
Concur with the sentiment, just not sure of the direction of it’s trajectory ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/5 "2020-11-15T21:54:07Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > The current vote count 76.6M to 71.8M shows that we have two well defined voter populations that are close to equal in size. There does seem to be some confusion over the size, location and targeting of that market. On a picture postcard Sunday yesterday in Sydney skywriters emblazoned TRUMP 2020 over the city in an apparently belated “get out the vote” ploy for 'merican expats or summat anyway. [https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/sydneys-skies-plastered-with-protrump-slogan/news-story/6a79f31d8648c9ed8c4e17d830440417](https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/latest-news/sydneys-skies-plastered-with-protrump-slogan/news-story/6a79f31d8648c9ed8c4e17d830440417) ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/6 "2020-11-15T21:56:25Z")
If there has been the emergence of a dangerous marketplace it is in the information that news and the media disseminate to the public. News and information itself has become a supply and demand industry on the internet and in the US broadcast industry. i.e. instead of news occurring and being subsequently reported upon, news is created according to demand whether it is truthful or not. What we have now is a collapse of the media as the Fourth Estate of which is required to provide transparency of government and a source of truth to the public. Because this has broken down there is a lack of trust in the media which means there is nothing to keep the government on check or reveal the government’s failures. > **[Fourth Estate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_Estate)** > > Pages for logged out editors learn more > > > The term Fourth Estate or fourth power refers to the press and news media both in explicit capacity of advocacy and implicit ability to frame political issues. > The derivation of the term fourth estate arises from the traditional European concept of the three estates of the realm: the clergy, the nobility, and the commoners. The equivalent term "fourth power" is somewhat uncommon in English, but it is used in many European languages, including I... EDIT: Although I’ve been thinking about this, until now I haven’t been searching for any articles that might make a similar point. But just found this from back in 2004 so I’m a bit behind the times… > **[A crisis in the fourth estate](https://www.theguardian.com/media/2004/aug/16/mondaymediasection.politicsandthemedia)** > > In the chase for higher ratings and circulation the media are falling prey to populism and so failing in their primary duty - to keep the public properly informed, argues Jürgen Krönig. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/7 "2020-11-15T22:28:21Z")
The flaw in the argument is that there may be a vast market underserved by the two existing “products” - i.e., the center. While there are barriers to entry for a centrist, they are not insurmountable. Once a centrist product is established, competition to serve the centrist market will increase, and the two exiting products may shrink to serve only niche segments. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2020, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/8 "2020-11-15T23:26:20Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > The flaw in the argument is that there may be a vast market underserved by the two existing “products” - i.e., the center. But what sustains the argument is that the US centre does not represent a consistent or viable politically coherent voting bloc. Which is something both the established political partys have long realised and hence why they concentrate on their base and bring in sufficient votes from the non-aligned to win the plurality. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/9 "2020-11-16T00:50:15Z")
This is a really bad analogy; because the strategy of serving two different markets implies that both markets can get what they want. If one car manufacturer wants to sell large trucks and SUV’s, while another wants to sell small electric cars: they’re aiming for different markets. But the customer who wants a little electric car isn’t forced to drive a large truck, or vice versa. We’re all living in the same country; and we’re all stuck, like it or not, with the same results of federal elections. There isn’t any way to serve two or more “markets” simultaneously. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 1:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/10 "2020-11-16T01:09:26Z")
> [@Kent\_Clark](#): > > The flaw in the argument is that there may be a vast market underserved by the two existing “products” - i.e., the center. While there are barriers to entry for a centrist, they are not insurmountable > [@penultima\_thule](#): > > But what sustains the argument is that the US centre does not represent a consistent or viable politically coherent voting bloc. The center can be broken down into center-left (vis a vis american politics) and center-right. Center-right doesn’t exist right now as a market people are selling to. A center-left candidate won the election. in fact, my main difference of opinion with Biden right now is that he _is_ a centrist, namely, that he claims to want to “work across the aisle”. While I think I am slightly yet firmly to the left of him, I can tolerate his moderation but think it’s ridiculously naive to think there will be any willingness to “work across the aisle” from Republicans. So with regards to a market, there is only one major party that is providing that choice to people, and that’s the Democrats. Some are not, but many are. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/11 "2020-11-16T01:27:23Z")
The marketing strategy is two brands seeking to get sufficient votes to win an election. Now they didn’t know how many were needed but if the GOP number crunchers thought that if they had 72mil votes with about the right geographical spread (which they did) they were probably in the box seat to win. The flaw in the analogy is not the buyer (the centre) wanting an electric car yet being forced to buy a large truck but the buyer (the centre) wants both the electric car and the large truck, and the SUV. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/12 "2020-11-16T02:28:11Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > If there has been the emergence of a dangerous marketplace it is in the information that news and the media disseminate to the public. News and information itself has become a supply and demand industry on the internet and in the US broadcast industry. > > i.e. instead of news occurring and being subsequently reported upon, news is created according to demand whether it is truthful or not. > > What we have now is a collapse of the media as the Fourth Estate of which is required to provide transparency of government and a source of truth to the public. Because this has broken down there is a lack of trust in the media which means there is nothing to keep the government on check or reveal the government’s failures. In what way has the news media collapsed? Yes, some smaller newspapers have gone out of business. The big organizations, though, are still reporting the news as well as they always have. ABC, CBS, and NBC are still at it, and as far as I can tell without a drop in quality since the early 1990s, which is when I became old enough to follow the news. Same for CNN. Same for the New York Times and Washington Post. In some cases we even have the same people still at it, and with the same quality of work. Bob Woodward, for example, did good work covering Trump, just like he did with Nixon back in the day. I remember Peter Jennings, Tom Brokaw, and Dan Rather doing good work back in the day, but I doubt that they were all that much better at their jobs than David Muir, Lester Holt, or Norah O’Donnell. We also have mainstream online news outlets that I believe do good work although obviously I can’t compare them to their back in the day versions. ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/13 "2020-11-16T02:49:07Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > The flaw in the analogy is not the buyer (the centre) wanting an electric car yet being forced to buy a large truck but the buyer (the centre) wants both the electric car and the large truck, and the SUV. I don’t think so. I don’t want a ban on immigration. There are people who do. I do want a lot of effort made to try to reduce climate change. There are people who don’t want the things done that might reduce it. I’d like to see a universal basic income. There are people who think that’s a terrible idea. I could go on for quite a long time. And there really are a lot of people who don’t want to drive a little electric car, and a lot of other people who don’t want to drive a pickup truck; so they don’t want both. All of them do want a road to drive on – but they’re not two different markets for the road, only for the cars. ---
**Author:** ![penultima\_thule](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/penultima_thule/32/3833_2.png) [@penultima\_thule](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/penultima_thule)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/14 "2020-11-16T03:25:39Z")
… and if 40 million Americans were in lockstep with you then you’d determine the Presidency. But the centre is not monolithic to the anywhere like the extent the US left and right are. So you and your best mate are big on no immigration ban, climate change action and universal basic income. But a Party A offers you just two. For you (say) climate change is the deal breaker and when Party A offers climate change and universal basic income but a ban on immigration you aren’t fazed. But for your best mate immigration is the deal breaker and so, despite being in total policy agreement you and your mate cancel out each others vote. It’s called wedge politics and the US major parties have used it to fractionate the centre and glean the votes they need with the least cost to their base for decades. I don’t know which is cause and which effect. But it’s why the centre is the quietest voting bloc in the US and it’s the loudest voting bloc in Australia ---
**Author:** ![thorny\_locust](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thorny_locust/32/431_2.png) [@thorny\_locust](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thorny_locust)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/15 "2020-11-16T03:35:36Z")
> [@penultima\_thule](#): > > It’s called wedge politics and the US major parties have used it to fractionate the centre and glean the votes they need with the least cost to their base for decades. That’s true. But I don’t see what it’s got to do with whether > [@Crane](#): > > The campaign is really not a competition. It’s a matter of serving available markets. > [. . .] > It is much like selling cars. You sell Lamborghinis to one market and Chevy SUVs to another. is a good analogy. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/16 "2020-11-16T03:41:41Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > The point - It’s not a competition for the minds of a single, large population. It’s a matter of meeting the expectations of two well defined market segments and getting your voters to the polls. There are car buying markets. People who live in wide-open rural areas want different transportation from those in dense urban areas. When they move, however, they’ll switch their vehicles too. If you check out any sizable area, it will have all the dealerships. (Well, maybe not Lamborghinis.) The point is that there are **not** two distinct markets. As with cars, there are dozens of niches with overlap heavily with one another. Sure, some people will buy only American SUVs and others prefer ones made by the Japanese, but they both buy nearly identical SUVs. In the 1950s nearly all cars bought in the U.S. were made in America. By the 1980s less than 3/4 were. Today it’s under 1/2. The buyers didn’t change that much, but the cars did. Japanese quality gave people a good reason to switch. Politics worked the same way. People didn’t change that much over the years. The parties gave people what they thought was good reason to switch. (The other sides don’t think those reasons were good, but nobody cares what the other side thinks.) The switch can happen again. It’ll be harder this time because people live in bubbles and hear only what they want to hear. I’d still argue that this doesn’t make them different markets. The marketing and the messaging will change radically over the next four years. The cult of personality will deflate. Reason and sanity won’t be artificially suppressed. The times will create the candidate. Who thought in early 2019 that Joe Biden had exactly the right persona for late 2020? Therefore, I also guarantee that the contenders in 2024 will surprise us. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 9:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/17 "2020-11-16T09:38:28Z")
> [@FlikTheBlue](#): > > In what way has the news media collapsed? I didn’t say the news media has collapsed. I’m saying that as a whole the media no longer works as it should do and this is leading to the collapse of The Fourth Estate as we know it. I’m not sure if the Fourth Estate is a concept in the US, but it’s considered necessary for a functioning democracy and if it’s dysfunctional then we have a problem. For many people the media simply serves to reinforce their own positions and there is an increasing number of media channels happy to serve them because those people have become a market. Many individual news outlets are of course still doing a great job. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/18 "2020-11-16T14:12:00Z")
The point is that Trump is not simply talking to his base. The right is not a few extremists that will crawl back under their rocks after the election. And there is no middle constituency that is subject to rational argument. Trump is addressing a market segment that represents one-half of the voting population. The criteria for candidate selection has moved from the needs of governance to the needs of the market. This explains how such an offensive personality as Trump can be offered as a political candidate. He meets all of the needs of his market segment - minimum governance, high entertainment, vengeance on the left. It’s not about the requirements of the office. So, Republican candidates in the immediate future will serve this market. Rubio, Kasich, Romney and various Bushes are not in the running. Carlson, Cruz, Palin and various Trumps definitely are. ---
**Author:** ![pdhenry](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pdhenry/32/5561_2.png) [@pdhenry](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pdhenry)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/19 "2020-11-16T14:39:26Z")
Respectfully, “high entertainment” and “vengeance on the left” have no place in government. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2020, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voters-as-markets/925634/20 "2020-11-16T14:45:16Z")
That’s the point - they only meet market needs.