# Voting By Mail Downside: voters are unable to react to last-minute information **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [May 25, 2017, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416 "2017-05-25T15:41:06Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/21 "2017-05-25T20:32:41Z")
I actually dislike pre-voting intensely. I think that the vote should represent a snapshot of the public opinion on a given day. That’s true not just because of idiots who take down reporters, but because there is always the potential for last-minute information to affect a vote. On the other hand, in a state like Montana, where the distances are so large, forcing people to vote in-person seems a bit unwieldy. What happens if a bad storm hits? What happens if you’re not easily able to drive, or get a ride? Probably, the best solution is internet voting limited to a time frame like 48 hours, with the state providing roving voting stations for those who refuse to join the modern world. If this guy wins, as he well might, because of the 300,000+ mailed in votes already cast, I expect there’s gonna be some soul-searching in the Democratic Party in Montana tonight. ---
**Author:** ![Punoqllads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d2c977/32.png) [@Punoqllads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Punoqllads)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/22 "2017-05-25T20:36:37Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > This is, I argue, a reason to dislike early voting. Voters who might vote differently based on this news cannot. The trivial solution to this is that early votes are double sealed with the voter identity on the outside envelope. When multiple early votes are submitted by the same person, only the latest one is accepted; if the person votes at the polls, the early vote is invalidated. Once a voter’s early ballot has been confirmed valid, the outside envelope is removed and the still-sealed ballot is shuffled in with all other valid early ballots. Once the ballots have been collected the final envelope can be opened and the anonymized votes tallied. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 8:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/23 "2017-05-25T20:53:57Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > I actually dislike pre-voting intensely. I think that the vote should represent a snapshot of the public opinion on a given day. That’s true not just because of idiots who take down reporters, but because there is always the potential for last-minute information to affect a vote. Repeating others’ question of **Bricker** , why is that important? Why does it need to represent a snapshot on a given day rather than the bulk of information gathered over a longer time period with the noise filtered out? Situations like this where a crime is committed the day before the election are exceeding rare. Slightly more common is the timed release of “gotcha” surprises that might causes momentary blips in polls, and I argue those shouldn’t be given the weight that they are. > [@](#): > > If this guy wins, as he well might, because of the 300,000+ mailed in votes already cast, I expect there’s gonna be some soul-searching in the Democratic Party in Montana tonight. A Republican winning in Montana? Quelle surprise! We’ve seen the low bar for what Republicans will accept in their candidates. A Democratic win would be a bolt from the blue, and very few people realistically expect that. A loss won’t result in great soul searching. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/24 "2017-05-25T21:17:20Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 25, 2017, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/25 "2017-05-25T22:53:22Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > A Republican winning in Montana? Quelle surprise! We’ve seen the low bar for what Republicans will accept in their candidates. A Democratic win would be a bolt from the blue, and very few people realistically expect that. A loss won’t result in great soul searching. One current Senator from Montana is a Democrat, as is the Governor. I couldn’t care less whether people vote on the same day or not. There is always some extra bit of news that might come out if we wait just one more day. Overall, if I were actually worried about this, I’d say the good outweighs the bad. More likely there will be some irrelevant “news” than a story with some heft to it. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/26 "2017-05-26T02:46:19Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > Repeating others’ question of **Bricker** , why is that important? Why does it need to represent a snapshot on a given day rather than the bulk of information gathered over a longer time period with the noise filtered out? Situations like this where a crime is committed the day before the election are exceeding rare. Slightly more common is the timed release of “gotcha” surprises that might causes momentary blips in polls, and I argue those shouldn’t be given the weight that they are. For most of the history of democratic elections like ours, voting has been a single-day thing. So I assert that the common interpretation of what it means to have an election matches what I said. When we start stretching out that time frame, the question then becomes, how long shall we stretch it out? I mean, if you’ve already let voting go for three weeks, why not four? Most people in the last presidential election had their mind made up by the point of the conventions; why not just open it up then? But all that does is cement a bad idea: that people should make up their minds early and not keep them open until the end of the process. > [@](#): > > A Republican winning in Montana? Quelle surprise! We’ve seen the low bar for what Republicans will accept in their candidates. A Democratic win would be a bolt from the blue, and very few people realistically expect that. A loss won’t result in great soul searching. First of all, Democrats win state-wide almost as often as Republicans do in Montana. Second of all, while a Republican winning might not normally cause much concern, a Republican who just assaulted a journalist winning by a narrow margin, helped by the fact that nearly one-third of expected votes were already cast by the time he did that would be a horse of a different color. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 5:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/27 "2017-05-26T05:05:34Z")
What if a candidate assaults someone at noon? Isn’t it unfair that some people voted before work? > [@Punoqllads](#): > > The trivial solution to this is that early votes are double sealed with the voter identity on the outside envelope. When multiple early votes are submitted by the same person, only the latest one is accepted; if the person votes at the polls, the early vote is invalidated. This is only “trivial” if you’re fine with the increase in resources needed to figure all that out, and then waiting a long time to hear a result since they have to reconcile the polling place records with the huge stack of envelopes. ---
**Author:** ![TroutMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/troutman/32/6721_2.png) [@TroutMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroutMan)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/28 "2017-05-26T05:06:39Z")
The seat was previously won by 16 points. 538 had an analysis of the election and said something within 10 points or less would be a continuation of strong showings by Dems. It’s looking like 7-8 points in early returns, so while not great news, it isn’t the worst. As I noted, Republicans have shown that character is not an important criteria when choosing a candidate. As for how long of a voting period is reasonable, you don’t have to reduce it to “well if x weeks is ok, why not x+1?” Look at the statistics of poll variation due to news items - 538 has a massive trove of data. I think their data typically shows polls reaching equilibrium after a week or something. Creating policies based on an extremely rare situation like this doesn’t make sense, especially when vote by mail has so many proven advantages. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/29 "2017-05-26T05:25:12Z")
> [@TroutMan](#): > > The seat was previously won by 16 points. 538 had an analysis of the election and said something within 10 points or less would be a continuation of strong showings by Dems. It’s looking like 7-8 points in early returns, so while not great news, it isn’t the worst. As I noted, Republicans have shown that character is not an important criteria when choosing a candidate. > > As for how long of a voting period is reasonable, you don’t have to reduce it to “well if x weeks is ok, why not x+1?” Look at the statistics of poll variation due to news items - 538 has a massive trove of data. I think their data typically shows polls reaching equilibrium after a week or something. > > Creating policies based on an extremely rare situation like this doesn’t make sense, especially when vote by mail has so many proven advantages. Character is not an issue for Republicans? Ouch. I’d rather be body slammed then left to drown. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/30 "2017-05-26T05:42:56Z")
Stupid phone. Ignore this gibberish. ---
**Author:** ![aceplace57](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aceplace57/32/3500_2.png) [@aceplace57](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/aceplace57)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 6:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/31 "2017-05-26T06:13:25Z")
Gianforte won. Quite a few supporters said the altercation didn’t change their vote. I don’t know anything about the race or issues and can’t comment. What I read about the attack was disturbing. But this is the rugged old west. They still herd cattle in Montana. A fist fight might gain the candidate votes. I suspect a sizeable settlement will result. > **[Republican Greg Gianforte wins Montana special election, CNN projects | CNN...](https://www.cnn.com/2017/05/25/politics/montana-special-election-results/)** > > Republican Greg Gianforte has won the special election for Montana’s open US House seat, CNN projects, defeating Democrat Rob Quist and capping off a whirlwind final 36 hours of the campaign that saw Gianforte being charged for allegedly assaulting a... > [@](#): > > The early crowd of voters at Gianforte’s rally were standing by the candidate, unfazed by the events of the previous 24 hours. > > “We whole-heartedly support Greg. We love him,” said Karen Screnar, a Republican voter who had driven all the way from Helena to support Gianforte. Screnar said she and her husband have known Gianforte for the better part of a decade. After Gianforte was charged with misdemeanor assault, Screnar said she was only “more ready to support Greg.” ---
**Author:** ![Punoqllads](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d2c977/32.png) [@Punoqllads](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Punoqllads)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 9:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/32 "2017-05-26T09:14:37Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > I suspect a sizeable settlement will result. Maybe, maybe not. A civil suit enables discovery. The ability to investigate Gianforte further might be worth more to the journalist than any monetary recompense. ---
**Author:** ![Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/budget_player_cadet/32/205_2.png) [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Budget_Player_Cadet)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 9:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/33 "2017-05-26T09:51:59Z")
> [@aceplace57](#): > > Gianforte won. Quite a few supporters said the altercation didn’t change their vote. > > I don’t know anything about the race or issues and can’t comment. What I read about the attack was disturbing. But this is the rugged old west. They still herd cattle in Montana. A fist fight might gain the candidate votes. > > I suspect a sizeable settlement will result. > [http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/25/politics/montana-special-election-results/](http://www.cnn.com/2017/05/25/politics/montana-special-election-results/) As said in another thread, the correct response to this is to declare Montana a superfund site, then try to give it to Canada. Make it their problem. ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 12:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/34 "2017-05-26T12:22:05Z")
The GOP could put up a goat in Montana and it’d win, provided he were sufficiently ornery. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 1:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/35 "2017-05-26T13:02:33Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > Probably, the best solution is internet voting limited to a time frame like 48 hours, with the state providing roving voting stations for those who refuse to join the modern world. When statistical surveys over the Internet have been reliable for some time, we’ll be ready to “join the modern world” in the same way with respect to voting, which after all is far more important to get right. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 1:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/36 "2017-05-26T13:05:03Z")
> [@Budget\_Player\_Cadet](#): > > As said in another thread, the correct response to this is to declare Montana a superfund site, then try to give it to Canada. Make it their problem. But what about the [dental floss and pygmy ponies](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=220xlHky1SY)? We can’t just be giving these valuable resources to Canada for free! ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/37 "2017-05-26T13:20:54Z")
> [@DSYoungEsq](#): > > I actually dislike pre-voting intensely. I think that the vote should represent a snapshot of the public opinion on a given day. That’s true not just because of idiots who take down reporters, but because there is always the potential for last-minute information to affect a vote. I feel quite the opposite. Despite situations like what happened in Montana on Wednesday night, on the whole it’s probably a bad idea for the electorate to be reacting to one thing in particular in the voting. Voting over a period of time will have voters reacting to a more balanced set of issues, concerns, and events, and thus yield a better result. ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 8:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/38 "2017-05-26T20:23:18Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I feel quite the opposite. Despite situations like what happened in Montana on Wednesday night, on the whole it’s probably a bad idea for the electorate to be reacting to one thing in particular in the voting. > > Voting over a period of time will have voters reacting to a more balanced set of issues, concerns, and events, and thus yield a better result. Only if the vote can be changed as the process continues. Sort of a preference poll, but at some point you have to lock in your vote. Is there any other democratic country around the world that allows voting for offices to continue for more than one or two days? I’ve not looked to see if this is a trend elsewhere. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 9:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/39 "2017-05-26T21:22:12Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > … > This is, I argue, a reason to dislike early voting. Voters who might vote differently based on this news cannot. > > Admittedly, there is always a point at which that’s true, but I argue it would serve us better if that point were the same for everyone – that is, if there were voting on Election Day, period. I can see this as a valid reason why individual voters might decide to refrain from voting early. It seems an overreaction to say, however, that everyone should vote at the same time. ---
**Author:** ![erysichthon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d07c76/32.png) [@erysichthon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/erysichthon)\ **Post date:** [May 26, 2017, 9:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416/40 "2017-05-26T21:50:34Z")
> [@SpoilerVirgin](#): > > I am a permanent absentee voter in the state of California, and there have been times when I felt like I might have changed my mind if I voted later. But there are always going to be things that might have changed your vote in hindsight – Election Day is as arbitrary a cutoff date as any other. Exactly. It’s arbitrary no matter when you do it. Suppose Gianforte had attacked a reporter on the day after the election? Would we expect a do-over? > [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > I would argue the opposite. There are benefits in spreading it out, the main one being that the electoral advantage of saving up damaging information for an “October Surprise” blitz is reduced. Do we really want more people deciding their vote based on a last-minute barrage of campaign maneuvering? I agree. Most of the last-minute, potential election-influencing things I’ve seen in my life are oppo dumps—not unforced errors like Gianforte’s assault, which can happen at any time. Forcing everyone to vote on the same day, _just in case_ a candidate commits a crime at the last minute, is a solution to a problem that is exceedingly rare. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/voting-by-mail-downside-voters-are-unable-to-react-to-last-minute-information/787416.md?page=3)