# Wager on Dean's effectiveness **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [February 15, 2005, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147 "2005-02-15T03:57:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/21 "2005-02-15T18:42:04Z")
I have no money to bet and I don’t drink, but after all, the President’s party usually loses seats in midterm elections. I think three straight elections of gains for the Republicans would be a lot. ---
**Author:** ![annaplurabelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/919ad9/32.png) [@annaplurabelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/annaplurabelle)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 9:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/22 "2005-02-15T21:09:48Z")
In case anyone wants to handicap the race, I’ll kick in with the open Senate Seats for 2006: **Democrats** : Akaka, Daniel - (D - HI) Bingaman, Jeff - (D - NM) Byrd, Robert - (D - WV) Cantwell, Maria - (D - WA) Carper, Thomas - (D - DE) Clinton, Hillary - (D - NY) Conrad, Kent - (D - ND) Corzine, Jon - (D - NJ) ?(running for Gov. in 2005) Dayton, Mark - (D - MN) \* (not seeking reelection) Feinstein, Dianne - (D - CA) Jeffords, James - (I - VT) Kennedy, Edward - (D - MA) Kohl, Herb - (D - WI) Lieberman, Joseph - (D - CT) Nelson, Bill - (D - FL) \* Nelson, Ben - (D - NE) \* (outgoing Governor Mike Johanns may run) Sarbanes, Paul - (D - MD) Stabenow, Debbie - (D - MI) \* **Republicans** : Allen, George - (R - VA) Bailey Hutchison, Kay - (R - TX) \*(may run for Gov. 2005) Burns, Conrad - (R - MT) Chafee, Lincoln - (R - RI) \* Ensign, John - (R - NV) \* Frist, Bill - (R - TN) \*(Frist may retire; Harold Ford, Jr. may run) Hatch, Orrin - (R - UT) Kyl, Jon - (R - AZ) Lott, Trent - (R - MS) Lugar, Richard - (R - IN) Santorum, Rick - (R - PA) Snowe, Olympia (R - ME) Talent, Jim - (R - MO) Thomas, Craig (R - WY) **Other** Jeffords, Jim - (I - VT) I starred the seats in viable play; details noted with early info. IMO, the Dems should keep an eye on the Nelson Senators (FL, NE) to save, and the Ensign/NV, Chafee/RI seats to gain. Texas and Tennessee are still wild cards. Anything I’m missing? Anyone want to tackle the House prospects this early? ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/23 "2005-02-15T22:03:04Z")
> [@annaplurabelle](#): > > In case anyone wants to handicap the race, I’ll kick in with the open Senate Seats for 2006: I was about to post something similar: From [here](http://usconservatives.about.com/library/bl2006senraces.htm) we get the senate seats that are up for grabs in 2006, broken down party lines, and from [here](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.senate.html) we get the percent of the vote the senator got when he/she last got elected. ```auto Republicans Democrats Independent 100 Arizona 61 California 72 Vermont 67 Indiana 65 Connecticut 69 Maine 56 Delaware 68 Mississippi 52 Florida 57 Missouri 75 Hawaii 52 Montana 63 Maryland 58 Nevada 85 Massachusetts 63 Ohio 51 Michigan 54 Pennsylvani 53 Minnesota 58 RhodeIsland 51 Nebraska 67 Tennessee 52 NewJersey 67 Texas 62 NewMexico 68 Utah 56 NewYork 52 Virginia 62 NorthDakota 77 Wyoming 50 Washington 79 WestVirginia 62 Wisconsin ``` To see how vulnerable the two parties are we calculate the following quantities for each of them: ```auto Republicans Democrats Mean of percent of the vote = 65 61 Median of percent of the vote = 67 61 Std of percent of the vote = 12 10 number of states with < 51% = 0 1 number of states with < 53% = 2 5 number of states with < 55% = 3 6 ``` It seems to me that the Democrats are quite a bit more vulnerable than the Republicans and it seems more likely that they’ll lose net Senate seats. Also, Jeffords from VT was originally elected as a Republican, so if his original voters vote Republican again, then the Republicans gain one seat even with no other race changing parties. ---
**Author:** ![annaplurabelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/919ad9/32.png) [@annaplurabelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/annaplurabelle)\ **Post date:** [February 15, 2005, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/24 "2005-02-15T22:38:07Z")
> [@Polerius](#): > > I was about to post something similar: > > From [here](http://usconservatives.about.com/library/bl2006senraces.htm) we get the senate seats that are up for grabs in 2006, broken down party lines, and from [here](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.senate.html) we get the percent of the vote the senator got when he/she last got elected.It seems to me that the Democrats are quite a bit more vulnerable than the Republicans and it seems more likely that they’ll lose net Senate seats. Thanks for the cites and analysis. Can you do the House? Please? 🙂 > [@](#): > > …[here](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.senate.html) we get the percent of the vote the senator got when he/she last got elected. Should any party shift/changes from the 2004 election results be factored into the analysis? How would you do that? > [@](#): > > Also, Jeffords from VT was originally elected as a Republican, so if his original voters vote Republican again, then the Republicans gain one seat even with no other race changing parties. Statistical analysis of party voting trends aside, I think Jeffords will keep his seat. Anyone disagree? ---
**Author:** ![Polerius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/d78d45/32.png) [@Polerius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polerius)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 12:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/25 "2005-02-16T00:11:38Z")
> [@annaplurabelle](#): > > Thanks for the cites and analysis. Can you do the House? Please? 🙂 Since you asked nicely 🙂 I got the following results from [Wikipedia](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._House_election%2C_2004) ```auto Republicans Democrats 63 Alabama1 73 Alabama5 72 Alabama2 75 Alabama7 61 Alabama3 70 Arizona4 75 Alabama4 61 Arizona7 100 Alabama6 67 Arkansas1 72 AlaskaAtLarge 58 Arkansas2 59 Arizona1 100 Arkansas4 59 Arizona2 67 California1 80 Arizona3 72 California5 60 Arizona5 72 California6 79 Arizona6 76 California7 60 Arizona8 85 California8 59 Arkansas3 84 California9 67 California2 65 California10 62 California3 68 California12 65 California4 71 California13 61 California11 70 California14 66 California19 72 California15 73 California21 71 California16 100 California22 67 California17 63 California24 67 California18 65 California25 54 California20 54 California26 63 California23 68 California40 62 California27 83 California41 71 California28 68 California42 65 California29 61 California44 71 California30 66 California45 81 California31 61 California46 85 California32 65 California48 89 California33 62 California49 74 California34 58 California50 80 California35 69 California52 62 California36 51 Colorado4 75 California37 71 Colorado5 100 California38 60 Colorado6 61 California39 55 Colorado7 66 California43 54 Connecticut2 60 California47 52 Connecticut4 62 California51 60 Connecticut5 67 California53 69 DelawareAtLarge 73 Colorado1 74 Florida1 67 Colorado2 100 Florida4 50 Colorado3 66 Florida5 73 Connecticut1 64 Florida6 72 Connecticut3 100 Florida7 62 Florida2 61 Florida8 100 Florida3 100 Florida9 86 Florida11 69 Florida10 100 Florida17 65 Florida12 100 Florida19 55 Florida13 70 Florida20 67 Florida14 100 Florida23 65 Florida15 67 Georgia2 68 Florida16 63 Georgia3 65 Florida18 64 Georgia4 72 Florida21 100 Georgia5 63 Florida22 52 Georgia12 100 Florida24 100 Georgia13 100 Florida25 63 Hawaii1 100 Georgia1 63 Hawaii2 100 Georgia6 85 Illinois1 100 Georgia7 88 Illinois2 76 Georgia8 74 Illinois3 74 Georgia9 84 Illinois4 100 Georgia10 76 Illinois5 57 Georgia11 86 Illinois7 70 Idaho1 52 Illinois8 71 Idaho2 75 Illinois9 56 Illinois6 69 Illinois12 64 Illinois10 61 Illinois17 59 Illinois11 68 Indiana1 65 Illinois13 54 Indiana7 69 Illinois14 55 Iowa3 61 Illinois15 55 Kansas3 69 Illinois16 59 Kentucky6 70 Illinois18 79 Louisiana2 69 Illinois19 60 Maine1 54 Indiana2 58 Maine2 69 Indiana3 67 Maryland2 70 Indiana4 63 Maryland3 72 Indiana5 70 Maryland4 67 Indiana6 69 Maryland5 53 Indiana8 74 Maryland7 49 Indiana9 75 Maryland8 55 Iowa1 100 Massachusetts1 59 Iowa2 100 Massachusetts2 61 Iowa4 71 Massachusetts3 63 Iowa5 78 Massachusetts4 91 Kansas1 67 Massachusetts5 56 Kansas2 70 Massachusetts6 66 Kansas4 74 Massachusetts7 67 Kentucky1 100 Massachusetts8 68 Kentucky2 100 Massachusetts9 60 Kentucky3 64 Massachusetts10 54 Kentucky4 65 Michigan1 100 Kentucky5 67 Michigan5 78 Louisiana1 69 Michigan12 32 Louisiana3 79 Michigan13 100 Louisiana4 84 Michigan14 59 Louisiana5 71 Michigan15 72 Louisiana6 58 Minnesota4 39 Louisiana7 70 Minnesota5 76 Maryland1 66 Minnesota7 68 Maryland6 65 Minnesota8 69 Michigan2 58 Mississippi2 67 Michigan3 64 Mississippi4 64 Michigan4 75 Missouri1 65 Michigan6 53 Missouri3 58 Michigan7 66 Missouri4 61 Michigan8 55 Missouri5 58 Michigan9 66 Nevada1 69 Michigan10 75 NewJersey1 57 Michigan11 67 NewJersey6 60 Minnesota1 69 NewJersey8 57 Minnesota2 67 NewJersey9 65 Minnesota3 97 NewJersey10 54 Minnesota6 59 NewJersey12 79 Mississippi1 76 NewJersey13 80 Mississippi3 69 NewMexico3 65 Missouri2 56 NewYork1 64 Missouri6 66 NewYork2 71 Missouri7 63 NewYork4 72 Missouri8 71 NewYork5 64 Missouri9 100 NewYork6 64 MontanaAtLarge 80 NewYork7 54 Nebraska1 80 NewYork8 61 Nebraska2 70 NewYork9 87 Nebraska3 91 NewYork10 67 Nevada2 94 NewYork11 55 Nevada3 85 NewYork12 63 NewHampshire1 81 NewYork14 59 NewHampshire2 90 NewYork15 65 NewJersey2 95 NewYork16 63 NewJersey3 75 NewYork17 67 NewJersey4 70 NewYork18 58 NewJersey5 70 NewYork21 57 NewJersey7 67 NewYork22 68 NewJersey11 50 NewYork27 54 NewMexico1 72 NewYork28 60 NewMexico2 63 NorthCarolina1 63 NewYork3 62 NorthCarolina2 59 NewYork13 62 NorthCarolina4 67 NewYork19 72 NorthCarolina7 66 NewYork20 67 NorthCarolina12 71 NewYork23 59 NorthCarolina13 57 NewYork24 60 NorthDakotaAtLarge 91 NewYork25 100 Ohio6 56 NewYork26 68 Ohio9 51 NewYork29 60 Ohio10 71 NorthCarolina3 100 Ohio11 59 NorthCarolina5 67 Ohio13 73 NorthCarolina6 77 Ohio17 55 NorthCarolina8 66 Oklahoma2 70 NorthCarolina9 58 Oregon1 64 NorthCarolina10 71 Oregon3 55 NorthCarolina11 61 Oregon4 60 Ohio1 53 Oregon5 72 Ohio2 86 Pennsylvania1 62 Ohio3 88 Pennsylvania2 59 Ohio4 94 Pennsylvania11 67 Ohio5 100 Pennsylvania12 65 Ohio7 56 Pennsylvania13 69 Ohio8 100 Pennsylvania14 65 Ohio12 59 Pennsylvania17 63 Ohio14 64 RhodeIsland1 62 Ohio15 75 RhodeIsland2 67 Ohio16 63 SouthCarolina5 66 Ohio18 67 SouthCarolina6 60 Oklahoma1 53 SouthDakotaAtLarge 82 Oklahoma3 55 Tennessee4 78 Oklahoma4 69 Tennessee5 66 Oklahoma5 64 Tennessee6 72 Oregon2 74 Tennessee8 60 Pennsylvania3 82 Tennessee9 63 Pennsylvania4 72 Texas9 88 Pennsylvania5 58 Texas15 51 Pennsylvania6 68 Texas16 59 Pennsylvania7 51 Texas17 55 Pennsylvania8 89 Texas18 69 Pennsylvania9 66 Texas20 93 Pennsylvania10 67 Texas25 59 Pennsylvania15 63 Texas27 65 Pennsylvania16 59 Texas28 63 Pennsylvania18 94 Texas29 91 Pennsylvania19 93 Texas30 88 SouthCarolina1 55 Utah2 65 SouthCarolina2 69 Virginia3 100 SouthCarolina3 60 Virginia8 70 SouthCarolina4 59 Virginia9 74 Tennessee1 62 Washington1 79 Tennessee2 64 Washington2 65 Tennessee3 62 Washington3 100 Tennessee7 69 Washington6 61 Texas1 81 Washington7 55 Texas2 63 Washington9 86 Texas3 68 WestVirginia1 69 Texas4 65 WestVirginia3 64 Texas5 63 Wisconsin2 66 Texas6 56 Wisconsin3 64 Texas7 70 Wisconsin4 69 Texas8 86 Wisconsin7 84 Texas10 77 Texas11 72 Texas12 92 Texas13 100 Texas14 58 Texas19 62 Texas21 55 Texas22 69 Texas23 64 Texas24 66 Texas26 65 Texas31 54 Texas32 68 Utah1 61 Utah3 80 Virginia1 55 Virginia2 65 Virginia4 64 Virginia5 100 Virginia6 76 Virginia7 64 Virginia10 60 Virginia11 63 Washington4 60 Washington5 52 Washington8 58 WestVirginia2 65 Wisconsin1 66 Wisconsin5 67 Wisconsin6 70 Wisconsin8 55 WyomingAtLarge ``` And, as before, to see how vulnerable the two parties are we calculate the following quantities for each of them: ```auto Republicans Democrats Mean of percent of the vote = 68 72 Median of percent of the vote = 65 69 Std of percent of the vote = 13 13 number of states with < 51% = 3 2 number of states with < 53% = 8 5 number of states with < 55% = 17 10 ``` From the above it seems that the Republicans are more vulnerable than the Democrats, and it seems more likely that they’ll lose net House seats. > [@annaplurabelle](#): > > Should any party shift/changes from the 2004 election results be factored into the analysis? How would you do that? For a more complete estimate, I think they should be factored into the analysis, but that would be very complex (and I would need much more data to make a decent estimate). > [@Bricker](#): > > I’m offering bets that the Democrats will not gain a seat in the House or in the Senate in 2006. Based on the above, it seems like there is a good chance that the Democrats will gain some seats in the House, which would make you lose your bet (since you say “in the House **or** the Senate”) ---
**Author:** ![annaplurabelle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/919ad9/32.png) [@annaplurabelle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/annaplurabelle)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/26 "2005-02-16T00:30:09Z")
> [@Polerius](#): > > Since you asked nicely 🙂 You’re a doll, **Polerius**. Thanks again. I’ll try to sniff out the “hot” seats and 2004 party shift data. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Moto](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9de0a6/32.png) [@Mr.Moto](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Moto)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 12:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/27 "2005-02-16T00:34:55Z")
Those statistical analyses don’t tell the whole story though, **Polerius**. The House races are for districts increasingly drawn to exclude one party or the other. Gains here typically happen by slowly picking off seats, and by redistricting driven by the decennial census. Senate races, being statewide, can swing much more easily. ---
**Author:** ![Blalron](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/35a633/32.png) [@Blalron](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Blalron)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 12:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/28 "2005-02-16T00:52:21Z")
I’ll consider taking Bricker up on his offer if I hear more about what he’s willing to bet. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/29 "2005-02-16T02:25:17Z")
What I’m guessing **Bricker** means is that the Dems will fail to make _net_ gains in _either_ house of Congress. Which would mean that anyone taking his bet would win if the Dems had a net gain in _either_ house. Rick, care to confirm or clarify? If I’ve interpreted you correctly, I’d like a piece of this action. Since you haven’t yet collected on our 2004 electoral bet, we could just go double or nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/30 "2005-02-16T03:02:30Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I’m offering bets that the Democrats will not gain a seat in the House or in the Senate in 2006. > > I had said earlier that I’d wait until the DNC chair was chosen, and now that Dean has the job, I believe he will work to push the party left, and this strategy will not result in the pickup of any seats. > > So - does anyone have enough confidence in the Democrats’ winning seats in the midterm election to put up a bet? Will Diebold be counting the votes? In that case, I’ll pass. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/31 "2005-02-16T04:51:43Z")
> [@Priceguy](#): > > Speaking of bets, **Bricker** , you never replied to me about the Iran invasion thing. We are on, right? Can you refresh my recollection? We’re not on for any bet unless I’ve positively acknowledged it. ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 4:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/32 "2005-02-16T04:56:44Z")
> [@manhattan](#): > > Hmm. I might be interested in a little of that action. Do you mean “pickup of any seats” or **net** pickup of any seats? I’m picturing net. A given seat my flip from R to D, but the net total for Democrats will not increase in either house. > [@Ravenman](#): > > Let me get this straight. Let’s say I take your wager, and the Dems gain at least one seat in the House and one in the Senate; I assume I’d win. Yes. > [@](#): > > If the GOP holds steady and loses no seats in either house, I assume you win. > [@](#): > > What if the Dems gain three in the House and lose one in the Senate? Then I lose. > [@](#): > > I will take your bet, I just want clarification of the rules, and a guide for what your stakes are. We can discuss stakes. Money or single malt scotch, as a starting point. ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 9:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/33 "2005-02-16T09:03:36Z")
Stake your 2008 vote? ---
**Author:** ![Dunderman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ecb155/32.png) [@Dunderman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dunderman)\ **Post date:** [February 16, 2005, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/34 "2005-02-16T09:09:17Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Can you refresh my recollection? We’re not on for any bet unless I’ve positively acknowledged it. > **[Bush voters with sons or daughters 18-25](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=298925)** > > Sign up quick! Your kids have precious few months to get through boot camp and invade Iran! Thank the good lord (in school if you have to) that we now have the opportunity to liberate those heathen muslims from their tyranny of Mullah ruled... ---
**Author:** ![Fear\_Itself](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fear_itself/32/19637_2.png) [@Fear\_Itself](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fear_Itself)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2005, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/35 "2005-02-18T03:29:32Z")
As one of the few on the SDMB [who has actually bested **Bricker**](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?p=5434864&#post5434864) at one of his wagers, I will step up to the plate. Let us make the stakes that which you value highest: $100 of cold, hard cash. The only way to make a lawyer weep is to take his money. ---
**Author:** ![OliverTwistofLime](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/b487fb/32.png) [@OliverTwistofLime](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/OliverTwistofLime)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2005, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/36 "2005-02-18T06:39:11Z")
As a conservative republican, I admire Dean altho he hates republicans and everything they stand for…his words. Dean is a breath of fresh air compared to the leading contenders for the presidential nominee of the democratic party in 2008. He is not pretentious, does not switch his ideas whenever it is politically indicated to do so. The 2nd term of almost all presidents wind up negative and I think that if the Democrats play it smart, “honest” and shrewd, they can win… I polled a number of fellow conservatives and although they don’t agree with Howard Dean, he sticks by his beliefs and they, as I, admire that. ---
**Author:** ![Psycho\_Pirate](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/9e8a1a/32.png) [@Psycho\_Pirate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Psycho_Pirate)\ **Post date:** [February 18, 2005, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/37 "2005-02-18T16:23:48Z")
> [@Diogenes the Cynic](#): > > I just hope he pushes the Dems to the left where they belong. they need to become the _opposition_ again. They need to become a lot more aggressively anti-Bush. They need to make noise about how evil this administration is, not because it will help the Dems win (that’s irrelevant) but simply because it’s morally imperative that they call Bush on his tyranny. From your lips to Dean’s ears, **Diogenes**. I hope and pray that this is the message the Democratic party chooses to make the main portion of their campaign. ---
**Author:** ![manhattan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/manhattan/32/7_2.png) [@manhattan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/manhattan)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2005, 4:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/38 "2005-02-20T16:00:08Z")
Well, heck. I’ve been doing the electoral math and I’d like to make a wager – I’ve even got two bottles with you in mind – I think either would make worthy stakes. But then I come across threads like [this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=303324) and I lose my nerve. The Democrats are just. not. getting. it. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 20, 2005, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/39 "2005-02-20T16:33:52Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > I had said earlier that I’d wait until the DNC chair was chosen, and now that Dean has the job, I believe he will work to push the party left, and this strategy will not result in the pickup of any seats. Does the party chairman even make much of a difference? I’d bet dollars to donuts the vast majority of Americans cannot name either party chairman. And how much influence can the chairman have over 435 different Representative candidates and how they run their campaigns, and 33/34 Senatorial candidates? ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [February 22, 2005, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147/40 "2005-02-22T18:46:46Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Does the party chairman even make much of a difference? I’d bet dollars to donuts the vast majority of Americans cannot name either party chairman. And how much influence can the chairman have over 435 different Representative candidates? You are right.But this is only part of the story. All the statistics mentioned above are nice (and thanks to the Dopers who work so hard to calculate 'em!)–but the real question isnt statistics, or who is party chairman. There is a basic problem with off-year elections: they are boring. Turnout is minimal, and the public just doesnt care. We won’t see any passionate debate from either side, no large demonstrations, etc. So , despite what all the pundits will declare–off-year elections tell us nothing about the mood of the country . Most Americans voters can’t even tell you how many of their own state’s congressmen belong to each party, and they aren’t going to get emotionally involved no matter who wins. Whether the Dems pick up a seat or two in 2006 will be important only to the professional columnists. It won’t serve as any indication of how the country will vote for President in 2008. (And the 2008 election will be pretty boring too–I predict that the major issues will be social security , health care, etc, and the Democratic candidate will probably win.But that’s a different thread…) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/wager-on-deans-effectiveness/290147.md?page=3)