# War between USA and China is absurd in the near future **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 11, 2014, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213 "2014-05-11T21:28:19Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 11\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/61 "2014-05-16T20:52:33Z")
nm ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/62 "2014-05-16T20:55:28Z")
Kobal2, your missing my point. 1st I agree with you Ho and his country men were fighting for their country and we had no clue what we were doing there. No disagreement from me on any of that. 2nd I am not looking from some mystical ancient wisdom point of view. Rather cold hard reality. LBJ could not understand that statement and we lost god know how many cause of that. The point is we in the west constantly misread and do not understand eastern ways. 3rd I doubt the Chinese would have some imperialists style invasion anywhere. On the other hand moving forward to achieve their goals is very conceivable. 4th The point is. We in the west think their goals are the same as ours. They are not. And with that done here. Good weekend to all. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [May 16, 2014, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/63 "2014-05-16T22:01:19Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > 4th > The point is. We in the west think their goals are the same as ours. They are not. It’s pretty obvious what China’s goals are: To become a modern industrial power and regain their traditional place as the hegemonic regional power in Eastern Asia, as the U.S. is in the Western Hemisphere. And why not let them have that? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2014, 11:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/64 "2014-05-18T23:39:12Z")
Sigh. Unless I’m greatly mistaken, that statement being attributed to Ho Chi Minh was said by Vo Nguyen Giap to a French General in the 1950s. Beyond that I largely agree with Kobal. China is Vietnam and the US isn’t France of the 1950s. Unless the US actually attempts to invade and take over China I see no relevance of the quote. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [May 18, 2014, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/65 "2014-05-18T23:43:46Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > It’s pretty obvious what China’s goals are: To become a modern industrial power and regain their traditional place as the hegemonic regional power in Eastern Asia, as the U.S. is in the Western Hemisphere. > > And why not let them have that? The Koreans, Japanese, and Taiwanese would disagree. Not of course that I think we’ll see any war between the US and China any time soon. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2014, 12:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/66 "2014-05-19T00:07:14Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > Here is an example from Vietnam. Ho Chi Minh is quoted as saying “You will kill 10 of our men, and we will kill 1 of yours, and in the end it will be you who tire of it.” > > He was right in many ways and those words were so true, and it is tragic that we not understand that. The West killed so many more of the Viets than we lost, very likely close to that 10 to 1 ratio Ho Chi says. Our political leaders could not conceive of the fact they kept coming and coming for more and wrongly assumed that western military could overwhelm Vietnam. In essence thinking western, not eastern. > > So the OP states “ **War between USA and China is absurd in the near future** ” That is a statement from a western point of view, at least IMHO. That has zero to do with ‘western’ versus ‘eastern’. It has to do with the values of a liberal society versus an ideological, collectivist party-state. If Che Guevara had said the same thing to the Americans, or Marshal Zhukov had said the same thing to the Germans (and they very well could have, though they didn’t) would you then consider Cuba and Russia to be ‘eastern’? (One could argue, and I certainly would, that they aren’t part of ‘the west’ as commonly defined, but that certainly doesn’t make them part of some nebulous ‘east’). ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2014, 12:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/67 "2014-05-19T00:24:44Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Sigh. > > Unless I’m greatly mistaken, that statement being attributed to Ho Chi Minh was said by Vo Nguyen Giap to a French General in the 1950s. > > Beyond that I largely agree with Kobal. > > China is Vietnam and the US isn’t France of the 1950s. Unless the US actually attempts to invade and take over China I see no relevance of the quote. D’oh! That should be “China ISN’T Vietnam”. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [May 19, 2014, 3:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/68 "2014-05-19T03:41:30Z")
I would agree with “absurd” if by that we just mean “very unlikely”. Both sides, and the wider world, would lose a substantial amount from such a conflict and no-one could hope to gain anything. And that’s just talking about conventional combat, leave aside a nuclear apocalypse. But I disagree with the reasoning that because both sides don’t want there to be a war, there won’t be a war. All you need is a situation where neither side feels they can back down, and these are two proud nations we’re talking about. And with China’s current “all your seas are belong to us” policy, there are conceivable ways for a spiral of escalating conflict to start. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/69 "2014-05-20T03:52:58Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > Kipling said it best in a very simple way: > East is East and West is West > And never the twain shall meet. _Till Earth and Sky stand presently at God’s great Judgement Seat. But there is neither East nor West, Color nor breed nor birth, When two strong men stand face to face Though they come from the ends of the Earth._ _– Gunga Din_, as I recall. (From memory, so I’m sure I messed up the capitalization and punctuation.) And you’re indulging a trope of certain Westerners who can’t be bothered to put themselves in someone else’s shoes, or do some cultural research, so you quote Kipling out of context and pretend “the East” is just _so_ inscrutable. And that’s not the stupidest thing in the world. “Don’t assume people will do what you want,” is the first step to learning to wonder what other people want. But only the first. So you can be paranoid about China and prepared for an onslaught of implacable alien menaces, and this is an admirable caution. Or, you know, you can try putting yourself in someone else’s shoes, or read something someone from China actually said. As for LBJ thinking “Western,” well, I think that misrepresents LBJ. A majority of Westerners around the world were unsympathetic to USA intervention in Vietnam. Our presence there was boneheaded in ways even Westerners can understand. As my father (a Vietnam veteran) told me, we couldn’t win because we had no “vested interest” (his phrase). We were fighting for the Great Game and Containment, they were fighting for nationalism and anti-imperialism, and _on their own soil._ ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 4:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/70 "2014-05-20T04:03:18Z")
> [@davida03801](#): > > I believe the OP, and many others, make a basic mistake is assuming all people and governments have the same goals and aspirations that we do in the west. Basically thinking “Well, I don’t want war and conflict therefore the Chinese, or Russians, or whoever don’t either.” Ha! No, I have long hated the old men in power in Beijing for what they have done in their own borders. I once fantasized about the United States building an alliance to crush the PRC for the sake of my own wrathful ideas. But at some point I studied geopolitics, and war doesn’t really work that way. It’s not clear what profit could make an invasion of the PRC worth it at this time, or what horror would be averted to make it worthwhile. And I have learned enough to see that (as messed up as China is) the Chinese state has its own virtues, as my own people have their own glaring faults. No righteous paladins and evil Drow here. And I think you will find a lot of people in business and politics take a sort of “sphere of influence” approach to these things. China’s recent sabre-rattling around its seas is perhaps a harbinger of things to come. But I did say war was absurd in the “near future.” Long-term, food stresses could blow a lot of previous peaceful relationships off course. ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [May 20, 2014, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213/71 "2014-05-20T04:07:11Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > I would agree with “absurd” if by that we just mean “very unlikely”. Both sides, and the wider world, would lose a substantial amount from such a conflict and no-one could hope to gain anything. And that’s just talking about conventional combat, leave aside a nuclear apocalypse. > > But I disagree with the reasoning that because both sides don’t want there to be a war, there won’t be a war. All you need is a situation where neither side feels they can back down, and these are two proud nations we’re talking about. > > And with China’s current “all your seas are belong to us” policy, there are conceivable ways for a spiral of escalating conflict to start. OK, that’s a fair modification of my point. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-between-usa-and-china-is-absurd-in-the-near-future/688213.md?page=3)