# War with North Korea Imminent? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 25, 2017, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782 "2017-10-25T04:36:17Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 9:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/101 "2017-11-05T09:26:38Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The farcical Doomsday Clock is already 99% of the way to midnight at any given moment. That’s like arguing that a 100-degree (F) fever doesn’t count as a medical symptom because your body temperature is already about 99% of the way to 100 degrees at any given moment. Just because most readings occur far over to one end of the scale doesn’t necessarily mean that small differences in the readings are unimportant. [QUOTE=Velocity] It’s nothing but a solemn-pretending stunt to whip up hysteria. [/QUOTE] Yup, because everybody knows how uneventful and boring world events were back in 1947 when the _Bulletin of Atomic Scientists_ first introducd the Doomsday Clock (set at seven minutes to midnight). Nobody really had anything better to do than to whip up a little hysteria. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/102 "2017-11-05T13:17:35Z")
> [@AI\_Proofreader](#): > > I could see something like that happening, if the Kim dynasty ended with no successor, and someone reasonable and moderate took over. … Is there good reason to believe a successor would be reasonable and moderate? I worry that the closest aides, called upon to control the “button” in Kim’s absence, might be brainwashed fanatics. Events might backfire if a petulant Trump learns where Kim is spending the night and takes him out with a cruise missile. ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/103 "2017-11-05T15:47:37Z")
Great news-war with N. K. is a lot less likely! At least based on the latest news. The Pentagon now says that the only way to assure that all nuclear weapons are removed from N. K. would be a land invasion. While the only significant, to the US, goal is to remove the long-range missiles, I don’t believe Trump would start a war and not promise to remove the nukes. Nukes are the scary bit. People won’t get excited about a missile by itself. And I don’t think either he or anyone in the US is willing to start a land war in asia. Which to me means that Trump is going to have to start some other tweet storm to distract the public from his backing down on war with N. K… ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/104 "2017-11-05T16:45:14Z")
> [@AI\_Proofreader](#): > > However, if you have some meaningful analysis to offer in regards to why this would, or wouldn’t, be used to justify adding North Korea as the 11th country in which we employ military force using the justification that they are state sponsors of terrorism - the other 10 are listed above - I look forward to hearing it. This was helpful. You’re missing the point. _You_ are the one arguing that the status quo that has existed within the Korean peninsula over the last 64 years is _imminently_ going to change. It’s been pointed out to you many times that 64 years without an attack leads most of us to believe the peace will be sustained. You have yet to respond to that from I can see. So what is so fundamentally different now from any other time over the last 64 years? I’d guess (I’m not going to count for you) that close to 100 US Service men have been killed by NK since the end of the war and still there was no war. A US warship was captured and it’s crew tortured and held for close to a year, NK still holds the ship and still no war. Other than the unsubstantiated belief that you have that the Pentagon is just chomping at the bit to invade another country, what evidence do you have that at the very least the US and SK are ready to attack NK? You’re making the claim that a fundamental shift is imminent now. The burden of proof is on you, not on us. ---
**Author:** ![dalebeshansky](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c37758/32.png) [@dalebeshansky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalebeshansky)\ **Post date:** [November 5, 2017, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/105 "2017-11-05T19:04:38Z")
Probably more dicey is if we can reliably detect a test missile from a tactical every time. ---
**Author:** ![AI\_Proofreader](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/8dc957/32.png) [@AI\_Proofreader](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AI_Proofreader)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 4:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/106 "2017-11-06T04:34:50Z")
> [@spifflog](#): > > You’re missing the point. _You_ are the one arguing that the status quo that has existed within the Korean peninsula over the last 64 years is _imminently_ going to change. It’s been pointed out to you many times that 64 years without an attack leads most of us to believe the peace will be sustained. You have yet to respond to that from I can see. I’m not arguing that anything substantial has changed on the Korean peninsula. I’m arguing that something substantial has changed in the U.S., and military and government officials here _are_ stating that something has fundamentally changed to elevate North Korea from annoyance to immediate problem that we have to deal with, now. I’m also arguing that our foreign policy has shifted over the last 16 years so that neither broad support, U.N. approval, nor Congressional approval is required for us to attack another country. I think I’ve made it relatively clear why I’m taking this position, so I won’t bother rehashing it again. I suspect unless you haven’t been following any news for the last year, you know exactly what I’m talking about. There isn’t a week that goes by that the President. general, or U.S. official isn’t being quoted in the news about the North Korean crisis. I might continue to share unique developments, but I’m not going to out of my way to demonstrate that a problem exists in the first place. The question is what our response to the problem will be. > [@](#): > > I’d guess (I’m not going to count for you) that close to 100 US Service men have been killed by NK since the end of the war and still there was no war. > > A US warship was captured and it’s crew tortured and held for close to a year, NK still holds the ship and still no war. > **[USS Pueblo (AGER-2)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/USS_Pueblo_(AGER-2))** > > USS Pueblo (AGER-2) is a Banner-class environmental research ship, placed into service during World War II, then converted to a spy ship in 1967 by the United States Navy. She gathered intelligence and oceanographic information, monitoring electronic and radio signals from North Korea. On 23 January 1968, the ship was attacked and captured by a North Korean vessel, in what became known as the "Pueblo incident", or alternatively, as the "Pueblo crisis". > The seizure of the U.S. Navy ship and her 8... Interesting read, thank you. I maintain that an incident such as this in 1968, versus one that happened today, would be handled quite differently.I don’t understand how you can possibly maintain that the current administration would employ diplomacy rather than launching an attack in response to North Korea firing on a U.S. warship, much less capturing one, but it would certainly be nice. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2017, 12:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/107 "2017-11-06T12:40:05Z")
> [@AI\_Proofreader](#): > > I’m not arguing that anything substantial has changed on the Korean peninsula. I’m arguing that something substantial has changed in the U.S., and military and government officials here _are_ stating that something has fundamentally changed to elevate North Korea from annoyance to immediate problem that we have to deal with, now. I’ll grant that a nuclear NK with ICBM capability has changed the discussion somewhat. Making a war with NK imminent, not even close. > [@AI\_Proofreader](#): > > I’m also arguing that our foreign policy has shifted over the last 16 years so that neither broad support, U.N. approval, nor Congressional approval is required for us to attack another country. I think I’ve made it relatively clear why I’m taking this position, so I won’t bother rehashing it again. Well Congress passed the War Powers Act in 1973, so I think your 16 year time frame is a bit off. Presidents have been pushing to have less restraint in using the military since WWII. Your 16 year window goes back to Bush, and I’m sure you’re not a fan of his obviously. But he did have Congressional approval (some would argue given under false pretenses). > [@AI\_Proofreader](#): > > I suspect unless you haven’t been following any news for the last year, you know exactly what I’m talking about. There isn’t a week that goes by that the President. general, or U.S. official isn’t being quoted in the news about the North Korean crisis. I might continue to share unique developments, but I’m not going to out of my way to demonstrate that a problem exists in the first place. The question is what our response to the problem will be. I get the impression that by imminent, you truly think it’s within the next couple of weeks. I don’t think you understand the type of war that the US would have with NK. I don’t know how old you are (not a slam) but the build up for the wars in the Middle east in 1990 and 2003 required an extensive buildup. To attack NK, the US would have to have hand-in-glove cooperation with SK, who would have to except extensive civilian casualties. So there is a bit of a build in governor in US ability to go to war with NK. You really don’t think the US could invade next week do you? > [@AI\_Proofreader](#): > > Interesting read, thank you. I maintain that an incident such as this in 1968, versus one that happened today, would be handled quite differently.I don’t understand how you can possibly maintain that the current administration would employ diplomacy rather than launching an attack in response to North Korea firing on a U.S. warship, much less capturing one, but it would certainly be nice. This might be a “my bad” on my part then. If you just wanted to backhandedly argue that the Trump administration is as blood thirsty as the Pentagon, I wish I had caught that earlier, and I wouldn’t have jumped into this at all. I thought this was deeper than the standard Trump = Evil but perhaps not. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [November 7, 2017, 10:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782/108 "2017-11-07T22:34:22Z")
I still don’t think war is ‘imminent’, but this caught my attention today: > [@](#): > > Three U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups will exercise together in the Western Pacific in the coming days in a rare show of force as President Donald Trump visits Asia with warnings about the nuclear threat from North Korea, U.S. officials say. > > The drill will include the USS Nimitz, the Ronald Reagan, the Theodore Roosevelt and their accompanying warships, the first time three U.S. aircraft carrier strike groups have exercised together in the region in a decade. source: [http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-asia-carriers/u-s-to-stage-drill-with-three-carriers-as-trump-visits-asia-idUSKBN1D62OQ](http://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-asia-carriers/u-s-to-stage-drill-with-three-carriers-as-trump-visits-asia-idUSKBN1D62OQ) That’s a significant amount of firepower in the region. Also, from my neck of the woods, [a dozen F-35s are deploying to Kadena Air Base in Japan for six months](http://www.sltrib.com/news/2017/10/26/300-airman-12-stealth-fighter-jets-deploying-from-hill-air-force-base-to-pacific-region/). [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/war-with-north-korea-imminent/799782.md?page=5)