The DPRK has a huge number of artillery within range of Seoul. Enough to equate to a nuke in power with a few hours of shelling.
Sure American planes will start blowing up the artillery but again there is a lot of artillery and it takes time for the planes to get there. By the time they can seriously dent the artillery Seoul will be smashed.
I dunno…
If the US/ROK appear to be dismantling the DPRK China will not be thrilled. China does not want a close US ally literally on their border.
I could see China coming to the rescue for the north. Afterall there is precedent for it so they could justifiably say, “We didn’t want you here before and fought to make it so so why do you think anything has changed?”
If the US/ROK did not pull back and allow China to setup a new puppet regime I think China would walk in and this time settle for nothing less than the whole peninsula (and they’d succeed today).
I don’t really think that (leaving aside the old guard in China’s power structure) they really think in those terms anymore. And I also believe that there are a growing number of folks in China’s power structure who have seen what a pain in the ass North Korea has been for the Chinese, and who could see the opportunity wrt trade and other economic benefit (capital investment, say) of having an economic powerhouse like South Korea (or a unified Korea) on their border. China may opt for a more neutral, conciliatory stance in any conflict, playing regional mediator and working whatever deals they can for the powerful in the NK (while, perhaps, taking a bit of border land as a buffer or something along those lines in any kind of negotiated settlement).
While I’m certainly not one to believe that China is all goodness and light, or has only the best motives, I also think that they have undergone a fairly drastic sea change from where they were in the 50’s, when they stuck their collective, um, foot into the hornets nest of Korea. I seriously can’t see them doing that again, especially in light of their orientation towards trade with the US and their desire to appear more statesman like on the worlds stage. They realize perfectly well that North Korea is still giving them political black eyes wrt that image.
-XT
My understanding was that signatory nuclear powers are “allowed” to use nukes against each other or against non-signatories, nuclear or otherwise (obviously, some countries are in fact nuclear-armed without publicly acknowledging that).
So there’s no treaty problem with nuking North Korea, that’s what I was saying. Nevertheless, I think the political cost to the United States for a first use (in a circumstance in which the U.S. itself was not threatened) would be enormous.
The insurgency would = Everybody? I wonder why no one has challenged this yet. It makes no sense.
Is there any plan where a real attack by NK doesn’t end with the country becoming a radioactive smear?
I’m not disputing that Seoul will be shelled to some extent. I was disputing the assertion that the North could destroy Seoul through invasion. And for the matter of that, I can’t see that Seoul would be leveled through shelling. Damaged, sure, but leveled? Nah…
Why would anybody use nukes against North Korea, for any reason beyond the alliterative appeal of it? NK can be defeated by conventional means pretty readily, and it’s much, much easier to manage a post-surrender country if it isn’t covered in fallout.
It’s that surrender thing.
It would depend on whether his antlered majesty survived or not. I seriously doubt that if Kimmy buys the farm the rest of the NK leadership is going to be fanatical enough to let off a nuke if things look to be going tits up. Rather, they will be looking for ways to golden parachute their way out. Hell, for that matter, I could see The Dear Leader trying to cut a deal if it all looked to be dropping in the pot.
-XT
Is it wrong to assume that a) North Korea has a decent supply of biological/chemical weapons and b) they’d probably use them in a shooting match. So far most of the discussion has been about nukes and conventional weapons.
Not only has no one challenged it, one poster said I was on the right track. Take that! 
Also: It does too make sense.
With regard to Seoul, I have read above it is about 30 kms from the border. Assuming that North Korea has to site any artillery a few km’s back from that, is there a lot of conventional artillery that is within range?
Eh, “kicked the ever-loving crap” out of MacArthur doesn’t mean “established a favorable kills-to-losses” ratio, it means “inflicted a lot of losses.” I agree the Chinese paid a heavy price for destroying MacArthur’s illusions, dispositions, and so many of his troops. But they did smash him up. More to the point, MacArthur more or less guaranteed that they couldn’t do anything of the kind, and they more or less immediately proved him wrong.
This is only my opinion.
In a conventional war N.K. will collapse like a house of cards.
Their armed forces have low morale and the population at large has little genuine(as opposed to feigned) loyalty to the present regime).
Most of the work would be done by allied airpower with ground forces mopping up.
Their nuclear assets would be taken out almost immediately probably by conventially armed cruise missiles, special forces (most likely Delta) or a combination of the two.
The U.S. would not use nuclear first strike under any circumstances, there is even the possibility that they wouldn’t retaliate in kind if N.K.initiated a nuclear strike; but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one.
There wouldn’t be any post conflict insurgency as I believe that the Koreans ethnicly are a homogenous group unlike say the Iraqis who have various divisions both on the ethnic and religious fronts.
(I may well be making an incorrect assumption here so feel free to correct me if I’m wrong)
Plus they would nationally be reunited with S.Korea in much the same way as the Germanys were reunited.
The big stumbling block is China.
China knows that Kim is a total nut job but they wouldn’t like having the U.S. active in what they consider to be their sphere of interest.
Its not so much about actual power as it is about imperial pride.
As an example look at how Russia views former Soviet republics even though for the most part they hold a strong antipathy to Russia.
Perhaps a deal could be worked out if S.K. in advance made some economic and political treaties with China bringing them closer together, possibly involving the downsizing of Koreas armed forces and the Americans removing their own armed forces from Korea.
But I really think that China would intervine or threaten to.
Of course they might send forces to beef up N.K. and then absorb N.K. in to being a defacto part of China.
All of this is only my own kite flying though.
China has a very different interest in the conflict: US forces going to Korea would, as a matter of practical necessity, be taken away from protecting Taiwan.
It sure seems like nuclear attack against N.K. would almost be necessary. North Korea may have 13,000 artillery pieces targeting Seoul; casualty estimates are 10,000 Seoul citizens killed per hour until the artillery is suppressed. (At less than 1 death per hour per piece, that might be conservative.) It might be very difficult to suppress that artillery quickly even with nuclear weapons, and surely impossible without them.
Some years ago there was a roundtable discussion (in Atlantic Monthly ?) involving experts including former national security advisors. Military opinion was that N.K. would not waste its artillery on Seoul, preferring military targets.
BTW, some say that Kim Jong-il is too “rational” to start a war, but is this clear? He’s of an age where his historical legacy may be what matters most to him, and he’s surely smart enough to realize his legacy will be that of heinous and despicable clown. He may be OK with the idea of a final “blaze of glory.” Unlike the tyrants of Burma or even Saddam Hussein (who depended on al-Tikriti clan), Kim’s power seems to be personal and not subject to any override.
Why isn’t the U.S. dropping leaflets over N.K. now?
A few years ago, N.K. was fueling a test missile; both to send a message and to interfere with their test, I thought to myself “You know nothing of global warfare strategy, Septimus, but why not just knock that missile over?” I felt vindicated a few days later when N.Y.Times published an opinion by two former national security advisors (one Demo, one GOP) recommending just that. But GWB did nothing.
The division between North Korea and South Korea is little like that of East Germany and West Germany. Although the populations of the two countries are ethnically homogenous, they certainly are not at all the same society, not even close anymore. Escapees who finally make it to South Korea are educated by the South Korean government so that they can manage in the new world, and make no mistake, it is a new world–as in another planet basically–to them. There’s no way that the South Korean government could expend the money or human resources to educate the entire population of North Korea before the die-hard elements would try to restore KJI’s government.
Actually its more extreme but has similarities with German reunification.
At that time I was in Germany and had a German girlfriend so I witnessed W.German attitudes at first hand.
The West Germans looked down on the easterners as uncouth and backward and regarded them with not a little resentment at their ways and their different outlook.
But as a matter of national pride and national solidarity went all out to integrate the easterners into their western culture.
I may be wrong but I believe that the S.Koreans share that same ethnic and national solidarity and would likewise go all out to reintegrate the estranged mambers of their national"family", no matter the cost and no matter how long it took.
I know that we have at least one S.Korean Doper so I’ll not take it amiss if I’ve got it totally wrong but it would be nice to hear their viewpoint.
Well, I’ve been located in South Korea for a few years now. The reason I say that the societies are so different is that there’s not that much information getting to people in North Korea. What they do get is what their government tells them. East Germans got plenty of information about the world outside their country.