# Warren forms Exploratory Committee **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 31, 2018, 2:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983 "2018-12-31T14:40:43Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 11
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/201 "2019-01-07T14:37:37Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > The US govt has been backing the losers of the civil war. Time to quit. The bizarre dream of removing Assad is not achievable now, not that it was ever desirable. I think we were wrong to put troops in Syria in the first place, but we still want to leave in a manner that doesn’t suddenly pull the rug out from under our local allies. At least, if we want to continue to have allies. > [@](#): > > Trump has been wrong on foreign policy because he has listened to failed bureaucrats and continued Obama’s policies such as in Yemen. Saudi Arabia owns the shares of Trump that aren’t owned by Putin. He’ll stop aiding KSA in Yemen when KSA no longer wants the help. > [@](#): > > Look, I realize the center left thirst for war [is] unquenchable _Buahahahahahaha!!!_ ---
**Author:** ![WillFarnaby](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/willfarnaby/32/514_2.png) [@WillFarnaby](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/WillFarnaby)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/202 "2019-01-07T15:25:18Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I think we were wrong to put troops in Syria in the first place, but we still want to leave in a manner that doesn’t suddenly pull the rug out from under our local allies. At least, if we want to continue to have allies. Saudi Arabia owns the shares of Trump that aren’t owned by Putin. He’ll stop aiding KSA in Yemen when KSA no longer wants the help. > _Buahahahahahaha!!!_ Like our NATO ally Turkey? Or are you referring to the Saudi backed jihadist rebels? Are you among the Dem masses? I’m trying to see how Warren’s antiwar position and hopefully future positions might play in the primary. Not looking good so far. It is baffling how you can say Trump is owned by Saudi, but then complain that our local allies (I.e. Saudi backed rebels) will be at a loss. Was this a typo? ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 3:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/203 "2019-01-07T15:50:01Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > I must applaud Warren for taking a strong antiwar position alongside Trump of all people by backing the Syria troop withdrawal. This may explain the center-left rhetoric against her. If she can manage to maintain this posture for the duration, it could bode well and position her as the peace candidate. I am interested to learn more of the Democrat masses’ opinions on the wars. That’s not exactly what happened. Her “strong antiwar position” is basically eventual pullout after careful planning and consultation with allies. That isn’t backing Trump’s sudden twitter plans. And I doubt "let’s eventually pull out of Afghanistan " will be super controversial during the primaries. If you are interested in Democrat masses’ opinions on the wars, might I suggest you start a thread on the subject? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/204 "2019-01-07T16:51:01Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > But what the hey, since people are talking about the first mover (dis?)advantage, here’s my thoughts: … Minimally I think we can agree that the statement that was being denied: > [@Jonathan Chance](#): > > ]First mover advantage is real. Can’t deny it. can be denied. I was not too serious in claiming that there is a curse based on the small n we have but that has more basis than a claim that it brings any advantage. Agreed though that she has apparently used the stage well over the week end. But one good week end or even week of exposure this early in the process? Not sure that translates into anything. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/205 "2019-01-07T18:03:12Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > But one good week end or even week of exposure this early in the process? Not sure that translates into anything. I’d call it ‘proof of concept.’ And certainly disproof of the notion that she’s going to be a crappy campaigner because she’s all schoolmarmish and unlikable. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 8:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/206 "2019-01-07T20:01:03Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > The US govt has been backing the losers of the civil war. Time to quit. The bizarre dream of removing Assad is not achievable now, not that it was ever desirable. > > Trump has been wrong on foreign policy because he has listened to failed bureaucrats and continued Obama’s policies such as in Yemen. > > Look, I realize the center left thirst for war Ian unquenchable, but it’s time to end this ridiculous policy. again- \*We should withdraw why? Because Putin wants us to? How many troops do you think we have there and what are their roles? \* And it was the GOp who got us into our last wars, not the “center left”. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/207 "2019-01-07T20:06:43Z")
I have had shared with me posts from the 4chan trolls organizing to post on MB, FB, etc as “concerned Democrats” and attack her. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2019, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/208 "2019-01-07T20:19:39Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > I’d call it ‘proof of concept.’ > > And certainly disproof of the notion that she’s going to be a crappy campaigner because she’s all schoolmarmish and unlikable. Not sure why you’d consider that proof of concept (or of which concept even) but it certainly is NOT _dis_proof that she is going to be a crappy campaigner. The dings on her as a campaigner, at least my concerns, have not been on her ability to deliver a single well rehearsed familiar set piece over a single weekend to those who agree with her positions. I’ve heard her do that before and I know she can it. The set stump speech is nice to have, but having a decent one is not in and itself enough. The concerns have been her ability (or lack of) to sell the ideas to those who have not yet thought deeply about them or who have somewhat different pre-existing thoughts about them, ideally to convince them that this is the way they have thought about it all along they just hadn’t realized it yet (Bill Clinton was a master of that). In that context the concern is that she comes off as a professor lecturing. (Which when stated in a sexist manner is called “schoolmarmish”.) They’ve been her ability (or lack of) to respond to unexpected questions and challenges on the fly, with confidence, strength, and relatability all at the same time. A good week end of stump speechifying simply is not enough to inform about those things or to offset past impressions of her. The road is long and and longer attention paid will mean more time for negatives as well as positives. I’m not even sure that a bad first week end of speechifying would have falsified a position that she will be a good campaigner. But it would have hurt more than a good one helps. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/209 "2019-01-08T01:56:42Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > The concerns have been her ability (or lack of) to sell the ideas to those who have not yet thought deeply about them or who have somewhat different pre-existing thoughts about them, ideally to convince them that this is the way they have thought about it all along they just hadn’t realized it yet (Bill Clinton was a master of that). From the reporting I’ve read, apparently she got a lot of that sort of reaction when describing to a bunch of white Iowans how black Americans hadn’t been able to build up wealth the way white Americans had, due to systemic racism. > [@](#): > > They’ve been her ability (or lack of) to respond to unexpected questions and challenges on the fly, with confidence, strength, and relatability all at the same time. One of the cool things she did was that everyone in attendance at one of her gigs got a numbered ticket, and numbers were chosen at random to determine who got to ask her questions. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/210 "2019-01-08T02:28:24Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > From the reporting I’ve read, apparently she got a lot of that sort of reaction when describing to a bunch of white Iowans how black Americans hadn’t been able to build up wealth the way white Americans had, due to systemic racism. Rallies tend to give bad pictures of the broader electorate in a state. They are by their nature an audience that is self selected. In IA and NH the love of retail politics usually obscures some of that. People who are skeptical probably are more represented than normal in other states. Except we’re over a year from the caucus and there are no other major candidates in the race. That’s early to get skeptical turnout to rallies and town halls. We also haven’t seen whether she holds up when a couple other candidates starts working the same part of the Democratic Her campaign staff probably carefully managed the venue selection to be in areas that were going to be most favorable for her rollout rallies. If they couldn’t manage that they need to be fired, and soon. This weekend allowed the campaign to produce an image of a lot of support. That’s different than there being broad support among Iowa Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/211 "2019-01-08T17:25:09Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > Her campaign staff probably carefully managed the venue selection to be in areas that were going to be most favorable for her rollout rallies. If they couldn’t manage that they need to be fired, and soon. This weekend allowed the campaign to produce an image of a lot of support. That’s different than there being broad support among Iowa Democrats. How does one identify such areas? I mean, sure, one can identify areas that are more pro-Dem than others, but is there really enough polling to say something like, “Cedar Rapids loves Warren, but Ames is more Bernie territory, and Des Moines is Biden country”? I’m. Not. Buying. That. Sure, her supporters were more likely to turn out than others out of sheer enthusiasm, but she was going to get Dems showing up who were merely curious about her, as well as committed supporters. No way to weed them out, or even tip the scales that much, beyond the enthusiasm factor. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/212 "2019-01-08T18:43:06Z")
I’m glad the first week went off without a hitch but I think some should dial down the satisfaction. Warren is, as already mentioned in this thread, something of a celeb/hero of the progressives. It should not be impressive to anyone that she sold out a couple of 700 seat venues. Great White can sell out a damn 700 seat venue. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/213 "2019-01-08T19:37:09Z")
> [@](#): > > Nearly 35,000 votes in the [first @dailykos 2020 straw poll](https://twitter.com/aseitzwald/status/1082696454341312514), which will be conducted every 2 weeks: > > - Warren (22%) > - Beto (15%) > - Harris (14%) > - Biden (14%) > - Bernie (11%) > - Unsure (9%) > - Other (9%) > - Booker (3%) > - Castro (1%) > - Gillibrand (1%) FWIW, the WaPo’s Dave Weigel [characterizes](https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1082696934182305792) the DKos community like this: > [@](#): > > The dKos community is a really interesting sample of voters, more like the Dem electorate than, say, MoveOn. A pool of partisan Democrats who are liberal, but really really want to win. Remember, they helped draft Jim Webb for Senate! And as others have noted, Bernie easily won all of the dKos straw polls in the 2016 cycle. Clearly the bloom’s off that particular rose. Once again: I’m not saying she’s going to win the nomination. I’m not even sure she’ll be the one I ultimately support. Wherever the center of the Democratic Party is these days, the Daily Kos community is unquestionably to its left. If there were an organization that was the within-Dem mirror image of DKos, Beto and Biden would be polling better than Warren in its straw poll. But compared with just two weeks ago, Warren’s really boosted her position in the Dem race. She’s in the top tier now; you couldn’t have said that two weeks ago. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 10:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/214 "2019-01-08T22:24:04Z")
Who is Mr. or Ms. Bernie, and what is his or her first name? And where is Mr. Sanders on that list? ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2019, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/215 "2019-01-08T23:13:26Z")
“Mr. Sanders”? What does Sarah Huckabee’s husband have to do with anything? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/216 "2019-01-09T00:59:07Z")
Nah, he’s talking about Winnie-the-Pooh, who lived “under the name of Sanders.” ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/217 "2019-01-09T16:45:31Z")
Actually, on second look, they also refer to O’Rourke by his first name, too, so it’s not just one first name in a sea of lasts, which was what looked incongruous to me. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2019, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/218 "2019-01-09T18:33:40Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > FWIW, the WaPo’s Dave Weigel [characterizes](https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1082696934182305792) the DKos community like this: > And as others have noted, Bernie easily won all of the dKos straw polls in the 2016 cycle. Clearly the bloom’s off that particular rose. > > Once again: I’m not saying she’s going to win the nomination. I’m not even sure she’ll be the one I ultimately support. Wherever the center of the Democratic Party is these days, the Daily Kos community is unquestionably to its left. If there were an organization that was the within-Dem mirror image of DKos, Beto and Biden would be polling better than Warren in its straw poll. > > But compared with just two weeks ago, Warren’s really boosted her position in the Dem race. She’s in the top tier now; you couldn’t have said that two weeks ago. Warren has been in the top 5 of every poll I saw before this, and as this is the first DKos straw poll you really can’t say what we couldn’t have said 2 weeks ago. Here’s a [WaPo article from November putting her as a favorite:](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2018/11/09/top-democratic-presidential-candidates-ranked/?utm_term=.120d04aebc79) > [@](#): > > 1. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (Mass.): No, Warren’s disclosure of a DNA report showing very slight Native American ancestry didn’t exactly go swimmingly. But as a signal of her intent to run, it was as strong as anything. I’ve often felt that if she runs, she’s probably the favorite. She needed to get this out of the way, and she’s trying. She also clearly has friends in the party, after her stumping for Hillary and garnering a seat on the Armed Services Committee in her first term as Senator. All I can say is, as someone who isn’t decided on whether to support her, you sure seem overly impressed with her first week out. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/219 "2019-01-10T02:26:28Z")
Apparently Warren [impressed Tom Steyer enough](https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1083117176511492097) that he doesn’t see the need to run anymore: > [@](#): > > An adviser to Mr. Steyer, who requested anonymity to discuss private conversations with him, said…Mr. Steyer was impressed by Ms. Warren’s rollout as a candidate and suggested that her announcement video channeled the very themes he had been planning to campaign on. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2019, 2:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983/220 "2019-01-10T02:46:49Z")
Ok, last time and I’ll stop: you are reaching real hard to claim victories for someone you are unsure of. And would it be so hard to link to the actual article that your tweet link referred to? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983.md?page=10) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/warren-forms-exploratory-committee/826983.md?page=12)