Was it overregulation or deregulation that led to the Financial Crisis of 2007/08?

Many factors were in play.

One of them is this:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-house-sec-privateequity-idUSBRE98C0EO20130913

There’s a “lobbyist” somewhere lol-ing all the way to the bank.

So… it’s the Jews’ fault?

Apparently. Gack’s in real good company.

http://politicalvelcraft.org/2012/05/17/ron-paul-repeal-the-1913-rothschild-federal-reserve-the-hidden-treasonists/

That’s in addition to the numerous claims that the Rothschilds are behind all the presidential assassinations. No, really.

Gack, you make me defend Ferguson. I hate that.

In our real world, the statement that large banks are involved in the world banking system is a tautology. So is the statement that large banks were needed to create a central bank in this country. Trying to create sinister implications from those trivial facts is conspiracy theory territory. And rabid anti-semitism is only inches behind.

No ‘one tries to create sinister implications from those trivial facts’, instead sinister implications are made from a detailed study of history … so, my reference here would be ‘The Creature that Came from Jekyll Island’ which tells the story of the entirely secret origins of the Fed at Jekyll Island SC and the preeminent role played by Paul(?) Warburg who was closely associated with the Rothchilds, at least that’s how I remember it. Gotta run now but it could be a topic of discussion.

The non-bank mortgage sellers have to comply with the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act , the Truth in Lending Act , the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act , the Fair Credit Reporting Act , the Equal Credit Opportunity Act , and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. Forty nine state require that mortgage brokers be licensed. Many states have their own regulatory agencies such as California’s Department of Real Estate.

What caused the mortgage crisis was the belief that because housing prices had never gone down in the last fifty years they would never go down.
Using historical data people built models predicting the number of defaults and what would happen if certain numbers of people defaulting. They then used those models to build and price investments. For example, Lehman brothers built five scenarios of what would happen in the mortgage bond market based on housing prices. They assigned probablities of 80% to the top three scenarios, 15% to house prices plateauing and 5% to a meltdown scenario. That was the thinking of the time, that housing prices would go up and any possibility were they did not was remote.
Regulators shared this feeling about house prices. As long as house prices were going up then lending standards did not matter. If a homeowner could not make payments they could sell the house, pocket the profit, and be better off. If they could make the payments then they got a place to live and a great investment at the same time.
Regulators were mostly concerned about banks giving too few loans to people who were credit risks. Fannie and Freddie had quotas starting in 1992 that 30% of all loans they bought had to be to people below the median income in their communities. That number was raised to 50% in 2000 and to 55% in 2007. Meanwhile the Community Reinvestment Act was also causing banks to give more loans and those loans had a much higher risk of default.
The CRA really started to hit as the bubble started to rise. From 1977 to 1991 they were 8.8 billion dollars negotiated by community groups. From 1992 to 2000 there was 1.9 trillion dollars negotiated by community groups. The bank that was most agressive in this area was Washington Mutual which made commitments of hundreds of billions of dollars to community banking. Because of this they were a favorite of regulators and they were allowed to acquire 20 other banks during this time. Not coincidentally Washington Mutual was one of the few actual banks which was destroyed by the mortgage meltdown.
The only significant deregulation was the repeal of Glass-Steagall which allowed investment banks to get into commercial banking. However the only commercial banks which went under were Washington Mutual and Wachovia, which had purchased a mortgage lender. The other entities that went under Lehman, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, and AIG which were investment banks or insured investment banks. Glass Steagall did not affect them.
If the regulators had seen the meltdown coming they could have prevented it. But they did not and they instead added to it. An all knowing and prescient regulator for the financial industry would be a great thing like a useful UN or Santa Claus, but it is just not reality.

I listened (it was just audio) and think Bill Black is worth listening to. You can find written opinions by him and others at this site. These are not crackpot opinions (Gack must get his information on Rothschild’s from another source. :cool: ) but do have a rational perspective often missing from the U.S. debate, even among “moderates.”

The real answer, which no one in this thread has yet identified, and which is only very rarely identified in the media, is fairly straightforward: inequality of wealth reached a tipping point level that led to a crash.

How does that work?

I’d always heard it was the rise of subprime lending combined with the securitization of those subprime mortgages into CDOs and mortgage backed securities that built the house of cards, and then a rash of foreclosures and delinquencies on those sub prime loans made the whole thing fall down, so to speak.

Nothing to do with inequality of wealth, except that nobody in their right mind should have loaned money to people without the wherewithal and track record to pay it back.

That article is an attack on the Obama-era SEC for not properly pursuing Lehman Brothers several years after the fact. How in any way is that an explanation for why the financial crisis - of which Lehman was a small part among many - occurred in 2008? And how does it give a different perspective in any way? We’ve already agreed that a lack of oversight and punishment characterized the entire era, and is opposite to the claim of overregulation. It’s not often you can find something that is simultaneously irrelevant and redundant, but this hits the jackpot.

Oh my.(*)
“That article” is actually a home page that will give you access to many articles (yes, the website could be organized better – this page will lead you to all articles by Black, though even it could be organized better), many of which offer a much better informed view of regulatory failures than exhibited in this thread. Black himself had several hands-on jobs in banking regulation; other contributors to the site include Professors of Economics.

And I’m not sure why you specify “Obama-era SEC.” Democrats on SEC included some appointed by GWB, and all are more in the “Wall St” camp than the “Occupy WS” camp. :wink:

    • Sorry if this sounds snarky, and perhaps I should post only in BBQ Pit, but I often post useful links only to see them derailed, as my detractors delight in nitpicking the messenger and ignoring the useful message.

Looking at what happened in other countries that avoided the crisis, the big difference remains the regulations in place and as I think a doper once mentioned, be as boring as possible; that is, to have good management and less incentives to create new financial Frankenstein tools.

It was Jimmy Carter’s fault and his push to give black families housing in the 1970s.

Or it could be that Canada and Australia never had a sustained drop in the price of houses. If prices had stayed high in America there would not have been a financial crisis.

No.

IIRC the price drop was a result of how the financial Frankenstein tools like derivatives were used.

Because housing prices were increasing, banks put lots of money into derivatives, it may had work, but many loans were offered to many sub-prime lenders. Very sub I must say. But that was the result of the banks and other institutions realizing that if homes prices increased as expected, they still made and would make a profit if a lender failed to pay as the home would be re-sold almost right away.

Unsurprisingly, much more than the expected number of lenders could not pay, (that should not had been a surprise) and then foreclosures caused housing prices to drop.

So saying that if the prices had stayed high that then everything would had been fine, sounds to me like attempting to cure the symptom but not the disease.

It is very difficult to say what was the cure and what was the disease. If home prices had not been going up, no one would have wanted to invest in derivatives. The nature of bubbles is that they are easy to see afterwords. Perhaps Canada and Australia are currently in housing bubbles and when they pop things will be just as bad for their banks.

Indeed not, but inequality is what created the housing bubble and took the “right mind” out of the equation.

First off, the germ of the idea came after listening to the Polk and Peabody award winning episode of This American Life entitled The Giant Pool of Money. If you haven’t heard it, I strongly urge you to do so, or read the transcript.

Then, take a look at this graph of income inequality.

Thirdly, note what this university history website calls the forgotten housing bubble (and subsequent skyrocketing level of foreclosures) of the 1920s.

I do not believe these parallels are coincidental. As for the exact theoretical basis for how they are connected, the following come from a blog comment I wrote on Nate Silver’s 538 blog in early 2009, followed by an email I wrote a friend following up on that in 2011. References to the comments of others that I am responding to are edited out for clarity.

The blog comment:

The email:

And yes: I actually do picture people decades or centuries from now looking back and saying “wow, that one dude with no economics training got what everyone else missed.” :smiley:

Though I unfortunately cannot find any information going back to the 1920s, it is also worth looking at this graph of the ratio between rent and housing ownership prices. Seems to parallel inequality pretty well.

There are two kinds of people in the world: [del]those who like to write “there are two kinds of people” and those who don’t[/del] those who look for a single specific cause of the 2007 financial crisis (“Was it all about repealing Glass-Steagall? Let’s just stop repealing Glass-Steagall then!” :smiley: ) and those who see that American capitalism has become lost in corruption and greed. Corporate profits are setting records and much of the profits accrue to the financial sector. Many opinion makers oppose almost all regulations in the interest of a “pure capitalism” … ignoring that their Great Prophet, Adam Smith himself, advocated government regulation of banking.

Some people view SDMB as a debating society and would ask me to argue this case in detail or shut up. No, I have neither the time nor the talent to do so. I pointed Dopers toward Naomi Klein and got only a single response: one Doper was proud to announce that he’d never heard of Ms. Klein. I recommend Bill Black and get only a snarky gibbering in reply.

If demonstrating the insidious and pervasive failure of American banking regulation is the object, it doesn’t really matter whether the examples occurred in the 1980’s, the 2000’s or the 2010’s. Those looking for the “silver bullet” (“If only we hadn’t repealed Glass-Steagall” :stuck_out_tongue: ) are … under-informed.

The vast majority of derivative contracts were not tied to housing, but were interest rate swaps, foreign exchange swaps, and misc. default swaps. (Some of these were indirectly tied to the housing bubble in the sense that anything that caused economic collapse would have huge effect on interest-rate swaps and other credit derivatives.)

BTW,I am somewhat astounded to read at Wikipedia that the nominal (“notional”) value of derivatives in 2011 totaled no less than $708 trillion! Yes, “nominal” value is misleading, but even the “gross market value” was a whopping $11 trillion.

They’re not always so very hard to see beforehand either. Warren Buffett didn’t buy Internet stocks! In hindsight there’s plenty of evidence that big Wall Street bankers were betting big on a housing bust.

Do you want to learn? … Or play snarky games in a “debating-society”?

If you don’t want to listen to that entire Giant Pool of Money show or read the transcript, great as it is, here are really the key portions:

So your argument is that I should somehow know that the particular irrelevant article that you linked to is not what I should be evaluating as your argument. It is not snark to say that I cannot read your mind. If you want to make a cite, then link to it.

I’m sure. Because of:

And:

Apparently, my mistake was that I actually read your cite. Perhaps you didn’t. Yes, that’s snark and well deserved.

Your link was not useful. You have not provided any useful evidence of anything. Nor have you provided any new information, since many people in this very thread have pointed out the lack of oversight. More importantly, they have also pointed out a great many other reasons which you have thus far failed to even mention, let alone evaluate.

Yes, some would.