Many factors were in play.
One of them is this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-house-sec-privateequity-idUSBRE98C0EO20130913
There’s a “lobbyist” somewhere lol-ing all the way to the bank.
Many factors were in play.
One of them is this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/09/13/us-house-sec-privateequity-idUSBRE98C0EO20130913
There’s a “lobbyist” somewhere lol-ing all the way to the bank.
So… it’s the Jews’ fault?
Apparently. Gack’s in real good company.
That’s in addition to the numerous claims that the Rothschilds are behind all the presidential assassinations. No, really.
Gack, you make me defend Ferguson. I hate that.
In our real world, the statement that large banks are involved in the world banking system is a tautology. So is the statement that large banks were needed to create a central bank in this country. Trying to create sinister implications from those trivial facts is conspiracy theory territory. And rabid anti-semitism is only inches behind.
No ‘one tries to create sinister implications from those trivial facts’, instead sinister implications are made from a detailed study of history … so, my reference here would be ‘The Creature that Came from Jekyll Island’ which tells the story of the entirely secret origins of the Fed at Jekyll Island SC and the preeminent role played by Paul(?) Warburg who was closely associated with the Rothchilds, at least that’s how I remember it. Gotta run now but it could be a topic of discussion.
The non-bank mortgage sellers have to comply with the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act , the Truth in Lending Act , the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act , the Fair Credit Reporting Act , the Equal Credit Opportunity Act , and the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act. Forty nine state require that mortgage brokers be licensed. Many states have their own regulatory agencies such as California’s Department of Real Estate.
What caused the mortgage crisis was the belief that because housing prices had never gone down in the last fifty years they would never go down.
Using historical data people built models predicting the number of defaults and what would happen if certain numbers of people defaulting. They then used those models to build and price investments. For example, Lehman brothers built five scenarios of what would happen in the mortgage bond market based on housing prices. They assigned probablities of 80% to the top three scenarios, 15% to house prices plateauing and 5% to a meltdown scenario. That was the thinking of the time, that housing prices would go up and any possibility were they did not was remote.
Regulators shared this feeling about house prices. As long as house prices were going up then lending standards did not matter. If a homeowner could not make payments they could sell the house, pocket the profit, and be better off. If they could make the payments then they got a place to live and a great investment at the same time.
Regulators were mostly concerned about banks giving too few loans to people who were credit risks. Fannie and Freddie had quotas starting in 1992 that 30% of all loans they bought had to be to people below the median income in their communities. That number was raised to 50% in 2000 and to 55% in 2007. Meanwhile the Community Reinvestment Act was also causing banks to give more loans and those loans had a much higher risk of default.
The CRA really started to hit as the bubble started to rise. From 1977 to 1991 they were 8.8 billion dollars negotiated by community groups. From 1992 to 2000 there was 1.9 trillion dollars negotiated by community groups. The bank that was most agressive in this area was Washington Mutual which made commitments of hundreds of billions of dollars to community banking. Because of this they were a favorite of regulators and they were allowed to acquire 20 other banks during this time. Not coincidentally Washington Mutual was one of the few actual banks which was destroyed by the mortgage meltdown.
The only significant deregulation was the repeal of Glass-Steagall which allowed investment banks to get into commercial banking. However the only commercial banks which went under were Washington Mutual and Wachovia, which had purchased a mortgage lender. The other entities that went under Lehman, Bear Stearns, Goldman Sachs, and AIG which were investment banks or insured investment banks. Glass Steagall did not affect them.
If the regulators had seen the meltdown coming they could have prevented it. But they did not and they instead added to it. An all knowing and prescient regulator for the financial industry would be a great thing like a useful UN or Santa Claus, but it is just not reality.
I listened (it was just audio) and think Bill Black is worth listening to. You can find written opinions by him and others at this site. These are not crackpot opinions (Gack must get his information on Rothschild’s from another source. ) but do have a rational perspective often missing from the U.S. debate, even among “moderates.”
The real answer, which no one in this thread has yet identified, and which is only very rarely identified in the media, is fairly straightforward: inequality of wealth reached a tipping point level that led to a crash.
How does that work?
I’d always heard it was the rise of subprime lending combined with the securitization of those subprime mortgages into CDOs and mortgage backed securities that built the house of cards, and then a rash of foreclosures and delinquencies on those sub prime loans made the whole thing fall down, so to speak.
Nothing to do with inequality of wealth, except that nobody in their right mind should have loaned money to people without the wherewithal and track record to pay it back.
That article is an attack on the Obama-era SEC for not properly pursuing Lehman Brothers several years after the fact. How in any way is that an explanation for why the financial crisis - of which Lehman was a small part among many - occurred in 2008? And how does it give a different perspective in any way? We’ve already agreed that a lack of oversight and punishment characterized the entire era, and is opposite to the claim of overregulation. It’s not often you can find something that is simultaneously irrelevant and redundant, but this hits the jackpot.
Oh my.(*)
“That article” is actually a home page that will give you access to many articles (yes, the website could be organized better – this page will lead you to all articles by Black, though even it could be organized better), many of which offer a much better informed view of regulatory failures than exhibited in this thread. Black himself had several hands-on jobs in banking regulation; other contributors to the site include Professors of Economics.
And I’m not sure why you specify “Obama-era SEC.” Democrats on SEC included some appointed by GWB, and all are more in the “Wall St” camp than the “Occupy WS” camp.
Looking at what happened in other countries that avoided the crisis, the big difference remains the regulations in place and as I think a doper once mentioned, be as boring as possible; that is, to have good management and less incentives to create new financial Frankenstein tools.
It was Jimmy Carter’s fault and his push to give black families housing in the 1970s.
Or it could be that Canada and Australia never had a sustained drop in the price of houses. If prices had stayed high in America there would not have been a financial crisis.
No.
IIRC the price drop was a result of how the financial Frankenstein tools like derivatives were used.
Because housing prices were increasing, banks put lots of money into derivatives, it may had work, but many loans were offered to many sub-prime lenders. Very sub I must say. But that was the result of the banks and other institutions realizing that if homes prices increased as expected, they still made and would make a profit if a lender failed to pay as the home would be re-sold almost right away.
Unsurprisingly, much more than the expected number of lenders could not pay, (that should not had been a surprise) and then foreclosures caused housing prices to drop.
So saying that if the prices had stayed high that then everything would had been fine, sounds to me like attempting to cure the symptom but not the disease.
It is very difficult to say what was the cure and what was the disease. If home prices had not been going up, no one would have wanted to invest in derivatives. The nature of bubbles is that they are easy to see afterwords. Perhaps Canada and Australia are currently in housing bubbles and when they pop things will be just as bad for their banks.
Indeed not, but inequality is what created the housing bubble and took the “right mind” out of the equation.
First off, the germ of the idea came after listening to the Polk and Peabody award winning episode of This American Life entitled The Giant Pool of Money. If you haven’t heard it, I strongly urge you to do so, or read the transcript.
Then, take a look at this graph of income inequality.
Thirdly, note what this university history website calls the forgotten housing bubble (and subsequent skyrocketing level of foreclosures) of the 1920s.
I do not believe these parallels are coincidental. As for the exact theoretical basis for how they are connected, the following come from a blog comment I wrote on Nate Silver’s 538 blog in early 2009, followed by an email I wrote a friend following up on that in 2011. References to the comments of others that I am responding to are edited out for clarity.
The blog comment:
The email:
A lot of the people who got the “subprime” mortgages that really made a mess were people of quite low incomes (and of course a big part of the reason for that is all the surplus value skimmed off by those at the top). In any normal time, it would be obvious to a lender or mortgage broker that these “subprime” clients were bad risks, and they wouldn’t get a loan, period. But with the insanely huge amounts of money that were sloshing around, both from rich fatcats and from sovereign wealth funds like China’s, and with conservative investments like bonds providing what were seen as unacceptably low returns, a lot of investment managers were under serious pressure from their richest clients to find them better returns.
The stock market wasn’t cutting it; it had roared up in the late '90s but has been up and down but overall flat ever since the turn of the millennium. My theory on this relates to the overall issue: when a small elite controls such a large amount of wealth, their first instinct is to put it in stocks. But this causes the market to be overvalued, and makes it sputter along with a series of boomlets and busts.
Fundamentally, when the bottom 80% of the population has such a paltry slice of the pie, the top one percent has maxxed out their plunder of surplus value beyond any reason to the point where it’s going to have disruptive effects. After all, the wealth of a nation isn’t actually represented by piles of money; money itself is just an “I.O.U.” for various goods and services.
So if the wealth of a society increases remarkably but the increase goes only to a small elite, what does that mean in practical terms? Those goods and services become far too much for this small number of people to actually use. And it wouldn’t make a lot of sense for a billionaire to acquire thousands of new cars, warehouses full of Blu-ray players, etc., and say “this is my wealth, the rest of you can’t afford to have it so I’m just going to keep it”. You’re paying warehouse costs, stuff depreciates, and it just isn’t getting any use. Madness. And how exactly could these billionaires warehouse services, from oil changes to haircuts to plumbers’ housecalls?
So instead, the ultra-rich let those goods and services circulate in the economy in the way they would if wealth were distributed more evenly (not in some theoretical utopian setup, just the distribution we saw in the postwar years up until the election of Reagan, when the modern ascent toward massive inequality began). But they don’t do so freely: instead they claim an I.O.U. for those goods and services, plus interest. This makes about as much economic sense as payday loans, of course: it’s just not sustainable. The interest people with stagnating incomes have to pay on today’s loans is going to keep them from being able to take out loans next year or the year after, when rich people will have even more surplus value loot they will be looking to collect interest on. So of course it ends up collapsing eventually.
But getting back to the specifics of 2008, the global pool of money was sloshing around and putting pressure on Wall Street to find places for it where it could provide some returns. Therefore they pushed credit cards on people who couldn’t afford them, encouraged them to buy expensive furniture and appliances at “no money down”, etc.; all in a desperate scramble to get that money out there “working for them”.
[…]If you shove money and shiny consumer goods in people’s faces and whisper sweet nothings in their ears about easy terms, practically beg them to take the credit, there are enough people out there who will succumb to the pitch just because the temptation for instant gratification is so great (and let’s not fail to credit the credit marketers for having developed psychologically effective sales techniques over the years).
Of course, the worst excesses in what I’d call credit pushing rather than credit granting, were in the housing sector. I mean, hello–NINJA loans?
It is now pretty well established, too, that these loans tended to go not merely to the poorest families, but, in general, were marketed at America’s black and Hispanic populations. They were the most likely to take on the so-called “ninja” loans (no income, no job, no assets). According to one real estate broker in Oakland, all some credulous households were told was: “firma, fecha” - Spanish for “signature, date.”
What other possible explanation can we find for this insanity other than my inequality thesis–that a tiny number of people had too much money and were running out of places to put it and getting desperate to find new “customers” for their credit? But hey, if you lend money to people without much money and with bad credit ratings, you can charge them a lot higher interest rates, which means higher returns for those putting up the money. Pool lots of these loans together and you’ve got a new type of investment instrument to soak up some of that money sloshing around. Sure, the loans are risky individually; but collectively the higher returns offset the risk…and besides, if people default, housing prices are going up-up-up and you can foreclose the property and maybe even sell it at a profit.
That is, until the bubble bursts and housing prices go down and a bunch of people find themselves “underwater” (owing more than their house is now worth):
One family - the husband is a janitor, the wife a cleaner - bought their two bedroom bungalow in Oakland for $420,000 in 2005. Now their mortgage rate has reset and it is on the market for $119,000. It probably won’t fetch the list price.
…and so they start defaulting on a massive scale, and as the economy suffers, more people are thrown out of work and they join the ranks of the defaulters, and it all spirals downhill and you know the rest.
Too bad the field of economics is so dominated by an ultraconservative ideology that won’t allow the vast majority of economists to even begin to question whether severe inequality–even leaving aside all questions of ethics and fairness–might actually be bad for the economy.
And yes: I actually do picture people decades or centuries from now looking back and saying “wow, that one dude with no economics training got what everyone else missed.”
Though I unfortunately cannot find any information going back to the 1920s, it is also worth looking at this graph of the ratio between rent and housing ownership prices. Seems to parallel inequality pretty well.
There are two kinds of people in the world: [del]those who like to write “there are two kinds of people” and those who don’t[/del] those who look for a single specific cause of the 2007 financial crisis (“Was it all about repealing Glass-Steagall? Let’s just stop repealing Glass-Steagall then!” ) and those who see that American capitalism has become lost in corruption and greed. Corporate profits are setting records and much of the profits accrue to the financial sector. Many opinion makers oppose almost all regulations in the interest of a “pure capitalism” … ignoring that their Great Prophet, Adam Smith himself, advocated government regulation of banking.
Some people view SDMB as a debating society and would ask me to argue this case in detail or shut up. No, I have neither the time nor the talent to do so. I pointed Dopers toward Naomi Klein and got only a single response: one Doper was proud to announce that he’d never heard of Ms. Klein. I recommend Bill Black and get only a snarky gibbering in reply.
If demonstrating the insidious and pervasive failure of American banking regulation is the object, it doesn’t really matter whether the examples occurred in the 1980’s, the 2000’s or the 2010’s. Those looking for the “silver bullet” (“If only we hadn’t repealed Glass-Steagall” ) are … under-informed.
If home prices had not been going up, no one would have wanted to invest in derivatives.
The vast majority of derivative contracts were not tied to housing, but were interest rate swaps, foreign exchange swaps, and misc. default swaps. (Some of these were indirectly tied to the housing bubble in the sense that anything that caused economic collapse would have huge effect on interest-rate swaps and other credit derivatives.)
BTW,I am somewhat astounded to read at Wikipedia that the nominal (“notional”) value of derivatives in 2011 totaled no less than $708 trillion! Yes, “nominal” value is misleading, but even the “gross market value” was a whopping $11 trillion.
The nature of bubbles is that they are easy to see afterwords.
They’re not always so very hard to see beforehand either. Warren Buffett didn’t buy Internet stocks! In hindsight there’s plenty of evidence that big Wall Street bankers were betting big on a housing bust.
It’s not often you can find something that is simultaneously irrelevant and redundant, but this hits the jackpot.
Do you want to learn? … Or play snarky games in a “debating-society”?
If you don’t want to listen to that entire Giant Pool of Money show or read the transcript, great as it is, here are really the key portions:
Think how attractive a mortgage loan is to that $70 trillion pool of money.
Remember, they’re desperate to get any kind of interest return. They want to beat that miserable 1% interest Greenspan is offering them. And here are these homeowners paying 5%, 9% to borrow money from some bank. So what if the global pool could get in on that action?
There are problems. Individual mortgages are too big a hassle for the global pool of money. They don’t want to get mixed up with actual people, and their catastrophic health problems, and their divorces, and all the reasons that might stop them from paying their mortgages. So what Mike and his peers on Wall Street did, was to figure out a way to give the global pool of money all the benefits of a mortgage-- basically higher yield-- without all the hassle and risk.
[…]
In the beginning, he’d only buy mortgages that were pretty standard and pretty safe. Mortgages where people had come up with a down payment and proven that they had a steady income and money in the bank. And they sold so many of these mortgages that there came a point in 2003 where just about everybody who wanted a mortgage and was qualified to get one, had gotten one.But the pool of money had just gotten started. They wanted more mortgage-backed securities. So Wall Street had to find more people to take out mortgages, which meant lending to people who never would have qualified before.
[…]
An interesting fact here. Mike Garner’s bank did not care all that much how risky these mortgages were. This was a new era. Banks did not have to hold on to these mortgages for 30 years like they used to. They didn’t have to wait and see if they’d be paid back. Banks like Garner’s would just own the mortgages for a month or two. And then they sold them on to Wall Street. And then Wall Street would sell them on to the global pool of money.
[…]
Lots of people in the mortgage industry had this faith that housing prices in the US simply never go down.So from the bank’s perspective, even if the worst happens and someone defaults, the bank would then own a house, which is now worth even more than what they gave out in the loan. So all Mike cared about was whether or not his customers, the Wall Street investment banks, would buy those mortgages from him.
And he was under pressure to approve more and more loans. Because other guys in his company-- the actual guys cruising strip malls all across Nevada buying mortgages from brokers-- their commission depended on selling more loans. And occasionally those guys would hear about some loan that some other mortgage company offered that they weren’t allowed to offer. And they’d complain to Mike.
Mike Garner: “Three of them would show up at your door first thing in the morning, and say, I lost 10 deals last week to Meritius Bank. And they’ve got this loan. Look at the guidelines for this loan. Is there any way we can do this, because we’re losing deals left and right?”
[…]
“Yeah, and then once I got a hit, then I’d call the other people back and say, listen, Bear Stearns is buying this loan. And I would like to give you the opportunity to buy these loans too. And once one person buys them, usually all the rest follow suit.”
Oh my.(*)
“That article” is actually a home page that will give you access to many articles (yes, the website could be organized better – this page will lead you to all articles by Black, though even it could be organized better), many of which offer a much better informed view of regulatory failures than exhibited in this thread. Black himself had several hands-on jobs in banking regulation; other contributors to the site include Professors of Economics.
So your argument is that I should somehow know that the particular irrelevant article that you linked to is not what I should be evaluating as your argument. It is not snark to say that I cannot read your mind. If you want to make a cite, then link to it.
And I’m not sure why you specify “Obama-era SEC.”
I’m sure. Because of:
Cannelos and his teams were not brave martyrs for “justice” and Schapiro was not exerting “political pressure” to force them to bring an abusive suit motivated by the Obama administration’s (non-existent) desire to punish Lehman’s looters for their politics.
And:
Let me be clear that the ultimate responsibility for the SEC fiasco lies with Schapiro. She was appointed to head the SEC by Obama for his traditional reason – she was an abject failure as the leader of securities industry’s self-regulatory body that took no effective action against the epidemics of accounting control fraud that devastated that industry and our Nation.
Apparently, my mistake was that I actually read your cite. Perhaps you didn’t. Yes, that’s snark and well deserved.
- Sorry if this sounds snarky, and perhaps I should post only in BBQ Pit, but I often post useful links only to see them derailed, as my detractors delight in nitpicking the messenger and ignoring the useful message.
Your link was not useful. You have not provided any useful evidence of anything. Nor have you provided any new information, since many people in this very thread have pointed out the lack of oversight. More importantly, they have also pointed out a great many other reasons which you have thus far failed to even mention, let alone evaluate.
Some people view SDMB as a debating society and would ask me to argue this case in detail or shut up.
Yes, some would.