# Was Sebastion Janekowski worth the with pick in 1st Round? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [June 15, 2017, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068 "2017-06-15T22:05:52Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2017, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/21 "2017-06-16T21:19:47Z")
> [@Snowboarder\_Bo](#): > > I know we’ll disagree here, but to me Wide Right is the bigger tragedy; the rivalry between FSU & Miami, even then, went back many years and IMO transcends the importance and status found in an NFL conference championship. [Not for some of us.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Right_(Buffalo_Bills)) ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2017, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/22 "2017-06-16T21:38:59Z")
This guy was drafted #32 and was probably the biggest kicker bust ever > **[John Lee (placekicker)](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lee_(placekicker))** > > John Lee (Korean: 이민종; RR: I Min-jong; born May 19, 1964) is a Korean former American football placekicker. He played college football for the UCLA Bruins, where he was a two-time All-American. Lee was selected in the second round of the 1986 NFL Draft by the St. Louis Cardinals with the 32nd overall pick. He played one season with the Cardinals and was the first Korean to play in the NFL. He was inducted into the UCLA Athletics Hall of Fame in 2001. > Lee was born in South Korea where he primar... ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2017, 10:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/23 "2017-06-16T22:03:18Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > [Not for some of us.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wide_Right_(Buffalo_Bills)) Don’t know much about American football; but, four consecutive defeats in a Super Bowl? :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2017, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/24 "2017-06-16T22:29:35Z")
I mean, who else were they supposed to take - some QB out of Michigan that no one wanted and fell to the 6th round? ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [June 16, 2017, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/25 "2017-06-16T23:07:38Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > I mean, who else were they supposed to take - some QB out of Michigan that no one wanted and fell to the 6th round? He was in the same draft as Janakowski? ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 9:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/26 "2017-06-19T21:41:44Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > This guy was drafted #32 and was probably the biggest kicker bust ever > > [John Lee (placekicker) - Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lee_(placekicker)) I’d argue that [Russell Erxleben](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Erxleben) (drafted at #11 overall by the Saints in 1979) was an even bigger bust, particularly as the Saints were hoping that he would be both their kicker and their punter (and he very quickly washed out at both positions). Back to the OT: if you can draft a player who can contribute to your team for over a decade, as Janikowski has, then, from a certain point of view, it’s not a wasted pick. The hit rate for draft choices, even first-round choices, isn’t that high, and while Janikowski may not have ever contributed as much to his team as a skilled position player might have (simply due to the role that a kicker has), there are certainly many, many first-round draft choices who’ve contributed far less to their teams. But, that said, as others have noted, while Janikowski has a very strong leg, and gives the Raiders better chances for long-range field goals than many of their opponents have – how often does that really affect a game? Once or twice a season, perhaps? He’s been a good, reasonably reliable kicker, but not an extraordinary one, overall. He’s only made one Pro Bowl, and has never been named the first team All-Pro kicker. Even speaking as someone who’s been a longtime fan and follower of the kicking game in the NFL (and who had aspirations of being a placekicker when he was in high school), I have a very hard time believing that _any_ kicker would be worth a first-round draft choice. Not only are first-rounders the recipients of outsized contracts, but the general expectation is that such a player will be a significant contributor to his team, for an extended period of time, and even a very reliable kicker doesn’t have that “significant contributor” factor. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/27 "2017-06-19T21:56:26Z")
> [@AK84](#): > > Don’t know much about American football; but, four consecutive defeats in a Super Bowl? :eek: And the worst part is that Bills fans now look back on those days as the Golden Era. It was back when the Bills were having great seasons and getting into the Super Bowl. Things are a lot worse now; the Bills haven’t even made the playoffs in seventeen years. And they’re never complete disasters; they always scrape by with enough wins to miss any top draft picks. It takes a lot of fortitude to be a Buffalo Bills fan these days. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 10:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/28 "2017-06-19T22:02:11Z")
> [@kenobi\_65](#): > > I’d argue that [Russell Erxleben](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russell_Erxleben) (drafted at #11 overall by the Saints in 1979) was an even bigger bust, particularly as the Saints were hoping that he would be both their kicker and their punter (and he very quickly washed out at both positions). > > Back to the OT: if you can draft a player who can contribute to your team for over a decade, as Janikowski has, then, from a certain point of view, it’s not a wasted pick. The hit rate for draft choices, even first-round choices, isn’t that high, and while Janikowski may not have ever contributed as much to his team as a skilled position player might have (simply due to the role that a kicker has), there are certainly many, many first-round draft choices who’ve contributed far less to their teams. > > But, that said, as others have noted, while Janikowski has a very strong leg, and gives the Raiders better chances for long-range field goals than many of their opponents have – how often does that really affect a game? Once or twice a season, perhaps? > > He’s been a good, reasonably reliable kicker, but not an extraordinary one, overall. He’s only made one Pro Bowl, and has never been named the first team All-Pro kicker. > > Even speaking as someone who’s been a longtime fan and follower of the kicking game in the NFL (and who had aspirations of being a placekicker when he was in high school), I have a very hard time believing that _any_ kicker would be worth a first-round draft choice. Not only are first-rounders the recipients of outsized contracts, but the general expectation is that such a player will be a significant contributor to his team, for an extended period of time, and even a very reliable kicker doesn’t have that “significant contributor” factor. Good call on Erxleben. It wasnt really John Lee’s fault he busted because they removed the tee he was used to kicking his fgs. Lets not forget Janikowskis value kicking off. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2017, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/29 "2017-06-19T22:04:26Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > And the worst part is that Bills fans now look back on those days as the Golden Era. It was back when the Bills were having great seasons and getting into the Super Bowl. Things are a lot worse now; the Bills haven’t even made the playoffs in seventeen years. And they’re never complete disasters; they always scrape by with enough wins to miss any top draft picks. > > It takes a lot of fortitude to be a Buffalo Bills fan these days. The Bills will always have 41-38; in some ways that is sweeter than any ordinary Super Bowl win. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/30 "2017-06-20T00:06:10Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > The Bills will always have 41-38; in some ways that is sweeter than any ordinary Super Bowl win. I’m willing to entertain the idea that Tom Brady intentionally let Atlanta run up the score just so he could take the Comeback away from us. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/31 "2017-06-20T02:06:51Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Good call on Erxleben. It wasnt really John Lee’s fault he busted because they removed the tee he was used to kicking his fgs. A guy from my high school (from the class immediately after mine) was an all-Big Ten kicker while at Wisconsin, at about the same time that John Lee was in college. The Packers brought him to training camp (as an undrafted free agent), but he, too, couldn’t make the transition from the tee which was used in college in that era, and never kicked in the NFL. > [@madsircool](#): > > Lets not forget Janikowskis value kicking off. True, but, even on top of his value as a very good, but not spectacular, kicker of field goals, not enough to justify having been a first round draft choice. IMO. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![magnusblitz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b4bc9f/32.png) [@magnusblitz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/magnusblitz)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/32 "2017-06-20T02:26:18Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > Lets not forget Janikowskis value kicking off. While he certainly has a strong leg, I don’t know if Janikowski is anything more than an above-average kickoff guy. If the object is to get touchbacks\*, well, he doesn’t stand out. In fact, looking at [this list](http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=KICKOFF_TOUCHBACKS_PERCENTAGE&tabSeq=0&season=2016&Submit=Go&experience=&archive=false&statisticCategory=KICKING&conference=null&qualified=true), he’s actually near dead last. Though, one thing a lot of teams were trying to do this year was purposely kicking the ball short of the end zone, and then tackling the return man short of the 25 yard line, thanks to the NFL’s rule change last year. The amount of kickoffs hit short of the end zone did go from 14% league-wide to 24%, and Oakland did have the [second-best kick coverage of playoff teams](https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/01/06/nfl-playoffs-2017-touchback-rule-change-impact) last year… so I could be persuaded that Janikowski was valuable in that regard (being able to spot kicks on the 1-2 yard line) but I’d want to see the numbers on that. (Looking at past years, Janikowski was pretty much always 50/50 on touchbacks, which generally put him around the middle of the pack in terms of touchback percentage.) ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/33 "2017-06-20T02:39:26Z")
> [@magnusblitz](#): > > Though, one thing a lot of teams were trying to do this year was purposely kicking the ball short of the end zone, and then tackling the return man short of the 25 yard line, thanks to the NFL’s rule change last year. The amount of kickoffs hit short of the end zone did go from 14% league-wide to 24%, and Oakland did have the [second-best kick coverage of playoff teams](https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/01/06/nfl-playoffs-2017-touchback-rule-change-impact) last year… so I could be persuaded that Janikowski was valuable in that regard (being able to spot kicks on the 1-2 yard line) but I’d want to see the numbers on that. > > (Looking at past years, Janikowski was pretty much always 50/50 on touchbacks, which generally put him around the middle of the pack in terms of touchback percentage.) Looking at this page: [http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2016](http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/drivestatsdef2016) Oakland’s opponents had among the worst starting field positions of any team in 2016 (but note that this’ll include drives starting after punts as well as kickoffs), behind only New England. But, that average (~25 yard line) was only about 6 yards better than the worst team in the league (San Diego), and only about 3 yards better than the league average. So, if that difference was only due to Janikowski (it probably isn’t), it suggests that he’s worth about 3 yards per kickoff over an average kicker. Field position is a big deal, but that’s not that much of a difference. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/34 "2017-06-20T02:40:22Z")
Kickers score a lot of points and they’re brought in to win games. Unfortunately, they’re also like pitchers. They can’t win a game if they’re not in a position to. It’s not Janikowski’s fault the Raiders weren’t competitive for most of his career. ---
**Author:** ![kenobi\_65](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kenobi_65/32/13178_2.png) [@kenobi\_65](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kenobi_65)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/35 "2017-06-20T02:51:39Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Kickers score a lot of points and they’re brought in to win games. Unfortunately, they’re also like pitchers. They can’t win a game if they’re not in a position to. And, in addition, it’s highly situational as to whether or not a game will hinge on a particular kick (be it an extra point or a field goal), and a good team may be outscoring their opponents sufficiently that they rarely need to rely on their kicker to win games. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 12:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/36 "2017-06-20T12:08:44Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > And the worst part is that Bills fans now look back on those days as the Golden Era. It was back when the Bills were having great seasons and getting into the Super Bowl. Things are a lot worse now; the Bills haven’t even made the playoffs in seventeen years. And they’re never complete disasters; they always scrape by with enough wins to miss any top draft picks. > > It takes a lot of fortitude to be a Buffalo Bills fan these days. This Bengals fan feels your pain, but albeit a little differently. Both our teams have made Superbowls and never won one. Both our teams have fielded good squads over the course of the last 30 years. Both have had long playoff appearance droughts…Bills 17 years and running, Bengals from 1993-2004 until the 2005 squad that might have contended for the AFC title had Kimo Von Oelhoffen not shredded Carson Palmer’s knee. So I get mediocrity, but sometimes I wonder if being mediocre is better than what the Bengals have done prior to last season’s disappointing 6-9-1, and that’s making the playoffs FIVE YEARS in a row and losing in the first round each time, and looking pretty bad in most of those doing it…or having the longest tenured coach in the NFL besides Belicheck who owns the worst playoff appearance win/loss record in the HISTORY of the game (0-7). So I’m with ya on the fortitude thing. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 1:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/37 "2017-06-20T13:11:37Z")
Let’s put it this way, if you’re taking a kicker in the 1st round, he damn well better be as good as Janikowski has been. Oakland’s real crime in the 2000 draft was not taking Tom Brady in the 5th round! ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 2:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/38 "2017-06-20T14:15:27Z")
If you look at the draft results that year I’d challenge you to find anybody in that draft aside from Tom Brady that you would rather have on your team. As for kicking, I learned the value of even an average kicker when I sat through the 3-game debacle that was Josh Scobee. At the time I’m sure the answer was different, but I would argue that time has justified the pick. ---
**Author:** ![Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a183cd/32.png) [@Barkis\_is\_Willin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barkis_is_Willin)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/39 "2017-06-20T15:42:08Z")
I don’t know, it was actually a pretty good draft. > **[2000 NFL Draft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_NFL_Draft)** > > The 2000 NFL Draft was the procedure by which National Football League teams selected amateur U.S. college football players. It is officially known as the NFL Annual Player Selection Meeting. The draft was held April 15–16, 2000, at the Theater at Madison Square Garden in New York City, New York. No teams chose to claim any players in the supplemental draft that year. > The draft started with Penn State teammates Courtney Brown and LaVar Arrington being selected consecutively, making them the on... A lot of starters and even Pro Bowlers. The two guys selected after Janikowski were Chad Pennington (respectable QB for several years) and Shaun Alexander (awesome RB for at least 5 years). I don’t think Oakland would have had terrible regrets with either of them. But generally I agree that that the Janikowski pick was not a bad one. ---
**Author:** ![AK84](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/85e7bf/32.png) [@AK84](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AK84)\ **Post date:** [June 20, 2017, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068/40 "2017-06-20T18:02:56Z")
Why was Tom Brady drafted so low? Interesting how much emphasis is placed on draft pick number in American football. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-sebastion-janekowski-worth-the-with-pick-in-1st-round/789068.md?page=3)