# Was the 1980s Japan fearmongering ever realistic to begin with? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 13, 2015, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462 "2015-06-13T21:27:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/21 "2015-06-14T22:09:04Z")
Well, that is so in a zero-sum game and if you believe you’re entitled to just coast effortlessly as the sole hegemon. So yes, the US does need to stop acting like they can just sit there. But what’s wrong if someone else actually rises to meet and pass you fair and square \*without \*you actually doing any falling. > [@Trinopus](#): > > The American Exceptionalism fantasy demands that we are Number One or else bilge, leaving out the fact that there’s a vast amount of space in between. Well, sure, but who wants to turn into Britain? Or even (shudder!) France?? 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [June 14, 2015, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/22 "2015-06-14T22:23:01Z")
Well, true… Britain and France have certain flaws and limitations… Yet, there are specific things they do better than we do, and I’ve always believed a really big part of “American Exceptionalism” is our willingness to borrow (or steal outright!) good ideas from others. (Cuisine being perhaps at the apex of this! Just had Thai noodles for lunch followed by Taiwanese ice-cream for dessert, and am heading out for rolled tacos for dinner. Yum!) (Very, very seriously, I hope the U.S. never needs to import food, the way we need to import oil. An oil embargo was bad; a food embargo could be lethal. Britain and Germany learned this the hard way in the two world wars. Many Japanese are gravely concerned because of Japan’s dependence on food imports.) ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 15, 2015, 2:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/23 "2015-06-15T02:28:17Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I guess it just seems absurd to me that falling to a position of the second most rich, happy, comfortable, and satisfied country in the world was seen as the equivalent of the total collapse of our way of life. > > The American Exceptionalism fantasy demands that we are Number One or else bilge, leaving out the fact that there’s a vast amount of space in between. Back then American Exceptionalism was more supported by reality. We were used to being number one just because we were Americans. “Made in Japan” used to a term of belittlement back when I was a kid. Then, when gas prices rose, Japanese car companies started selling cars here like crazy because they were more fuel efficient. And people who bought them discovered they didn’t fall apart after two years. It wasn’t just cars, it was electronics also. Around 1981 the Japanese told HP (and others) that basically their products were crap. Here’s how bad it was here. One of our factories recorded the serial numbers of the chips in rejected lots, because the very big company they bought them from tended to try to send the same lot back. Every circuit board factory had testers to inspect the chips coming in, because they couldn’t be trusted. The Japanese wouldn’t accept that. It took some time for American companies to learn the lesson. (No one inspects incoming chips any more.) I don’t think anyone thought they were going to take over, but the lesson that we had been short changing quality for years was a hard one to swallow. ---
**Author:** ![Annoying\_Buzz](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/eb8c5e/32.png) [@Annoying\_Buzz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annoying_Buzz)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/24 "2015-06-17T08:33:26Z")
The state of the economy in general may have also been a factor in people’s perceptions at the start of the 80s. The 70s saw oil shocks, rising gas prices, and the double-whammy of high inflation and high unemployment. In addition, crime rates, both violent and property, had been rising sharply and non-stop since the 60s, with no end in sight. Wide swaths of many US Cities were viewed as lawless no-man’s lands (does anyone recall how often “walking through Central Park after dark” was used in media to mean ‘suicidally dangerous’?). This was also during a boom in nostalgia for the 50s, and many compared the changes in American society up to that point unfavorably with their (highly clouded) memories of the 50s. A lot of things in the US were going wrong, people were upset, scared and angry, and there was no real indication that things were going to get better. Against this backdrop, there now appeared a country that had risen from complete devastation in WWII to prosperity, had industries that were giving America’s one nasty wake-up call after another, and which put forth an image of highly educated kids, fanatically disciplined workforce, and zero crime (not totally true, but that was the image people saw). On an uglier side, it was also noted with envy by some social conservatives the ways in which Japanese society matched nostalgia-version 50s America: no minorities and women were subservient to men. So it’s not too surprising that a lot of people bought the idea that Japan was going to take over the world. ---
**Author:** ![Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/a8b319/32.png) [@Fuzzy\_wuzzy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fuzzy_wuzzy)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 9:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/25 "2015-06-17T09:27:18Z")
It’s not unreasonable to point out that Japan believed they were on a sustainable huge upward curve too. There was a self confidence within Japan that was not entirely misplaced at the time. Japan is not the only example of an economic system threatening to overtake the US model. Communism(and to an extent fascism) were the superior economic models for quite a number of years. As late as the 1960’s communism was seen as a competative/superior economic system by many. Then it became Japan, and to an extent the EU. Now it is China. It’s impossible to predict whether or not the Chinese model will prove itself superior. However, many models have threatened to be superior in the short and medium term without actually being so in the long term. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 10:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/26 "2015-06-17T10:01:47Z")
One thing you have to realize is that the Americans who fought World War II were still around, in their 60s, and in charge of American business. Their perspective on the situation was that Japan was doing economically what it was not able to do militarily. There was some paranoia and racism in the mix. ---
**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/27 "2015-06-17T10:08:05Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > It wasn’t just cars, it was electronics also. Around 1981 the Japanese told HP (and others) that basically their products were crap. Here’s how bad it was here. One of our factories recorded the serial numbers of the chips in rejected lots, because the very big company they bought them from tended to try to send the same lot back. Every circuit board factory had testers to inspect the chips coming in, because they couldn’t be trusted. The Japanese wouldn’t accept that. It took some time for American companies to learn the lesson. (No one inspects incoming chips any more.) > > I don’t think anyone thought they were going to take over, but the lesson that we had been short changing quality for years was a hard one to swallow. I’m having trouble following who is who in your anecdote, so you’re saying American companies had accepted a lot of crap and fraud that the Japanese would not? ---
**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 10:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/28 "2015-06-17T10:14:33Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > I don’t much about their legal system, but my college roommate, who’s now a lawyer studied their criminal legal system and was shocked at how much power the cops had and how, in his mind, unfair to the defendants the legal system was. I don’t remember any details though nor how the that would negatively affect Japan’s standing in the world. I remember one fact that tells me all I need to know. Greater than 99% conviction rate. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 10:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/29 "2015-06-17T10:41:46Z")
I question the premise of this somewhat. Japan’s economy has been horribly mismanaged for at least 20 years prior to some promising reforms in recent years (and of course mismanaged in a relative sense; not to imply any country has got it 100% right). But if you’re someone living in the early 80s, you don’t know that’s going to happen. Japan could just as easily encouraged outside investment, built greater domestic demand, diversified the workforce (i.e. let women into the office, not just the reception desk) and continued their impressive economic growth for many years. Of course none of that means the US economy was DOOMED, any more than China’s rise does, so from that perspective it was the normal hyperbole / misunderstanding of economics. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 12:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/30 "2015-06-17T12:16:19Z")
> [@grude](#): > > I remember one fact that tells me all I need to know. > > Greater than 99% conviction rate. And what exactly does this tell you? ---
**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/31 "2015-06-17T12:23:30Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > And what exactly does this tell you? That the trial is a farce that might as well be done away with, if you don’t have a shot at being found not guilty what is the point? ---
**Author:** ![Balthisar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/balthisar/32/2825_2.png) [@Balthisar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balthisar)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/32 "2015-06-17T12:34:35Z")
> [@Habeed](#): > > Health care. It’s blindingly obvious that the delivery of healthcare is a monopoly/oligopoly. There are a finite number of medical school seats, so doctors have a monopoly on physician services (and there are not enough doctors being trained). There are a finite number of hospital networks in a given city, so patients have no actual choice of competing providers. While the limits you indicate are true, I’m not sure that health insurance was a big issue in the 1980’s, because for the vast majority of the population, medical expensed hadn’t yet run away like they have today. I don’t know that I’m right, which is why I’m expressing doubt, but would really like to know more. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/33 "2015-06-17T17:08:03Z")
> [@grude](#): > > I’m having trouble following who is who in your anecdote, so you’re saying American companies had accepted a lot of crap and fraud that the Japanese would not? Sorry. American products were crap. And the Japanese told us so. I’m not sure I’d call the resending of bad lots fraud - more like the company not being knowing what was there. Back in those days you didn’t mess with AT&T. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/34 "2015-06-17T17:15:23Z")
To some extent Japan was the first really different we encountered as equals. Being the conqueror or colonizing power does not really count, since you can create a little enclave for yourself. The Japanese being different yet better in some respects was a shock. When I was in Tokyo, we took the subway some places. I found that Tokyo had homeless people, just like New York. They slept in the subway, just like New York. But they left their stuff in the middle of big passageways and no one took it. That was not like New York, and it blew my mind. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/35 "2015-06-17T17:40:47Z")
> [@Randolph](#): > > Their workers often voluntarily did the Night Shift. Since Japan was making a Splash with their fuel-efficient, well-designed cars, it did spur U.S. automakers to break out of their Cocoon. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [June 17, 2015, 5:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/36 "2015-06-17T17:50:19Z")
I’m old enogh to remember the 80s. Of course Japan made significant inroads into NA markets. But what made the fearmongering unjustifiable is the same thing that makes typical demographic fearmongering of all sorts unjustifiable - namely, the assumption that a given trend will continue indefinitely into the future without change, leading to an absurd (fearmongering) result. I remember graphs purporting to show that if Japanese ownership of offshore real property continued at the same rate, by some point (2060? Can’t remember) Japan would in effect own all the property in the US. Horrors! Of course, this assumed present market trends can be projected from 1980 to 2060 without any change. A spectacularly dubious assumption. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Milton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6bbea6/32.png) [@Mr.Milton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Milton)\ **Post date:** [June 19, 2015, 12:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462/37 "2015-06-19T12:34:26Z")
> [@](#): > > I remember one fact that tells me all I need to know. > > Greater than 99% conviction rate. I may be mis-recalling this, but I thought “Freakanomics” by Dubner and Leavitt said that the apparently high conviction/crimes-solved rate in Japan was due to a bit of cooking of the books; i.e., unsolved murders are often reclassified as “unclaimed bodies”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-1980s-japan-fearmongering-ever-realistic-to-begin-with/722462.md?page=1)