# Was the election result really so surprising? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 11, 2016, 1:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490 "2016-11-11T13:00:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/61 "2016-11-13T20:45:16Z")
> [@Lamia](#): > > What’s surprised me is that, post election, people are acting like the polls and the media had been predicting a landslide for Hillary Clinton. It’s my recollection that while she was expected to win, it was acknowledged to be a close race. > > That so many battleground states went red was surprising to me, but in the weeks before the election I’d considered a Clinton victory likely but a Trump victory all too plausible. The most astonishing thing about this election is the number of people who evidently weren’t paying attention to what was going on around them. There were a LOT of people who were confidently predicting a big Clinton win. > [@](#): > > The HuffPost presidential forecast gives Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton a 98 percent chance of winning the general election on Tuesday. That means we’re pretty darn certain that ― barring some major catastrophe, scandal or nearly every single poll being wrong ― Clinton will be elected. > > But that doesn’t necessarily mean Clinton will win in a landslide. It’s still a close race in several states; Clinton could win with as few as 273 electoral votes. Or she could blow the race out and win 341 or more. The high win probability doesn’t choose between those scenarios ― it just means that the model shows Clinton below 270 is very unlikely. > **[A High Probability Of Clinton Winning Doesn’t Mean It Will Be A Blowout](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/high-probability-clinton-winning_n_581d0399e4b0e80b02ca2498)** > > But we're four days out, and things are looking good for the Democratic nominee. 538’s final prediction was that Clinton would most likely get 302 electoral votes. That’s not a small margin. Predictwise though she would probably get 322 votes. > [@](#): > > It is 1:00 PM ET on Saturday, November 5, 2016 and Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton is 86 percent likely to be our next president (Republican nominee Donald Trump is 14 percent). Clinton is winning, because she is 90 percent or more to win states that equal 274 Electoral Votes, she is about 75 percent for another 4 in New Hampshire, and about 70 percent in both Florida (29 votes) and North Carolina (15 votes). [http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/11/possible-polling-error/](http://predictwise.com/blog/2016/11/possible-polling-error/) ---
**Author:** ![Disgruntled\_Penguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@Disgruntled\_Penguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Disgruntled_Penguin)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 8:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/62 "2016-11-13T20:52:02Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > Thank you. > > But let it be known that I wrote that when this post was in the BBQ Pit. It has since been moved here, so I’d better not get any warnings for it. I agree it was very well said. I expressed my concern about how the Bernie folks were being treated and how I was considering not voting and I got a taste of what the “other side” deals with every day. It was eye opening but not mind blowing. Just a little bit of knowing where they’re coming from. So, as I see it, my warning was not heeded or even acknowledged as important and I didn’t vote. Apparenly, there were a whole lot of folks like me so I’m not surprised the election went as it did. I really hated my parties arrogance. Not that my not voting mattered. It didn’t ( as I knew it wouldn’t ). Even if my state has flipped she still lost the election. No, anecdotes aren’t data so one vote doesn’t mean jack but the fact that the election turned on democrats not turning out to vote the warning sure meant a lot. Not to the posters here surely but on whoever is trying to guage the pulse of the people, they dropped the ball. I don’t want to dwell on it though. Either the lesson was learned or it was not; we’ll know better in 2019 I suppose. For now, we have bigger issues to worry about and like the democratic party did not believe in 2015, we need to all be together to do this. It remains to be seen if this is something the democratic leadership wants won’t we? Note, I made my statement before I even realized exactly what the party was really doing to Bernie. That little revelation certainly didn’t help matters. ---
**Author:** ![Clothahump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/51bf81/32.png) [@Clothahump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clothahump)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 9:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/63 "2016-11-13T21:31:42Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I was not particularly surprised that so many Americans could be so shortsighted as to elect Trump (disappointed, but not surprised). I was, however, rather surprised that the polls so thoroughly failed to capture the situation. And since the polls happened before the election, this manifested itself as the election being surprising. > > Yes, I knew that there was the possibility of the polls being significantly and systematically wrong, and that there have been few enough elections that there’s a limit at how low that probability could reasonably be set at. And I believed that Silver’s model made the correct choice to equally weight the possibility of significant systematic errors in both directions. But I had what I thought were good reasons to believe that the errors would be more likely to work the other way, and that Silver’s model thus underestimated Clinton’s chances. > > And either I was wrong in this belief, or an improbable event went ahead and happened anyway, as they occasionally do. There’s only one poll that matters, and that happened on election day. However, it was apparent the polls were being slanted in an attempt to influence the election. Thankfully, that didn’t happen. I remember seeing a poll that indicated Texas was going to go for Hillary. Turns out that the poll was conducted in the Austin area, which the rest of the state refers to as The People’s Republic of Austin because it tilts so far left. Had it been a true poll, the result would have been a helluva lot more different. ---
**Author:** ![Dallas\_Jones](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dallas_jones/32/3277_2.png) [@Dallas\_Jones](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dallas_Jones)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/64 "2016-11-13T21:43:31Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > Thank you. > > But let it be known that I wrote that when this post was in the BBQ Pit. It has since been moved here, so I’d better not get any warnings for it. Yeah, that was a great post. This election was not a misogynist election, not a rejection of a possible female president, it was Hillary’s to lose. Almost any other woman would have had a better chance. It was Hillary hatred. It was not some kind of Republican sweep. The established Republican party was never in favor of, or even willing to help Trump. It was Hillary’s to lose. The loss belongs to Hillary. The Bernie people were dismissed by the DNC who actively worked against them. Their campaign was scorned by the DNC as whining children. Hillary was going to be the DNC candidate no matter what happened in the primary election. This was decided in 2008 or before. Assuming that all these disenfranchised voters would just fall in behind the party line was a tactical mistake. They began to hate Hillary as much as the Republicans. And they did not follow, for they saw this as what it was, machine politics in the style of the old Daley Chicago machine. The election was not about racism. Hispanic American citizens were not a given to promote the endless influx of illegals. Hispanics who are here legally, gained citizenship and followed through with the process were not in favor of unrestricted illegal immigration. The so called Black vote has been solidly Democratic for soo long that they were ignored, and the DNC candidates have done very little for them other than words. Chicago with 20 to 30 shooting deaths in the black community each week just draws a shrug of that’s the way it is. Look to Detroit. It is not only the white, non-college jobs that have been lost. The Blue Wall, the Rust Belt, these are not white only enclaves. They woke up to see themselves as ignored, flyover country and it isn’t going to get any better, and they know that. So they voted to disrupt the established system that is in place. This is part of the worldwide backlash against globalization, and it is real. Brexit was the symptom, this election is a continuation of that frustration and should not be ignored. But in the end it comes down to Hillary hatred, not wanting to let the Clintons anywhere near the White House again. The DNC should have realized the level of Hillary hate and instead they just plowed ahead with her and her only. It was Hillary, and her only who put Trump in the White House. Voters chose a slightly trained monkey flinging poo to putting Hillary back into the White House. Chew on that for awhile. ---
**Author:** ![Ramira](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ramira/32/344_2.png) [@Ramira](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ramira)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 9:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/65 "2016-11-13T21:52:47Z")
> [@Clothahump](#): > > However, it was apparent the polls were being slanted in an attempt to influence the election. Only the math illiterate believe such things and the very deluded. ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/66 "2016-11-13T22:12:43Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > Thank you. > > But let it be known that I wrote that when this post was in the BBQ Pit. It has since been moved here, so I’d better not get any warnings for it. Not too likely. **Miller** leans towards mod notes, not warnings, and he would have given you one if he were inclined to before he moved the thread. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/67 "2016-11-13T22:55:49Z")
> [@Disgruntled\_Penguin](#): > > So, as I see it, my warning was not heeded or even acknowledged as important and I didn’t vote. Then some of the responsibility for Trump’s election is yours. You could have opposed him, but it was more important to you to spite Clinton. Congratulations to you, and to all who thought like you, for helping get us President Trump. > [@](#): > > I don’t want to dwell on it though. Either the lesson was learned or it was not It’s possible there is a different lesson that different people have not yet learned from, isn’t it? ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/68 "2016-11-13T23:47:31Z")
Thank you, **Dallas Jones** and **Disgruntled Penguin**. All I can say is, _ **word!** _ > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Then some of the responsibility for Trump’s election is yours. You could have opposed him, but it was more important to you to spite Clinton. Congratulations to you, and to all who thought like you, for helping get us President Trump. I know you have me blocked, but I’m going to respond anyway, if nothing else, for the peanut gallery. Absolutely freaking **not**. You are operating under the utterly false premise that nonvoters have any obligation to vote for _your_ preferred candidate. Wrong. Completely, totally wrong. Candidates aren’t entitled to anyone’s vote; they have to _earn_ that privilege. Just because we may not have wanted Trump, doesn’t mean we also didn’t want Hillary and were willing to let the rest of you decide among yourself which asshole was going to win. Frankly, I’m in the camp that much preferred Trump for four years than cementing the Oligarchic rule indefinitely, with that warmongering, two-faced (public and private), lying corporate whore who was ready to sell our democracy down the shitter with the TPP and the secret, unelectable, unimpeachable World Trade Court that would govern it, at the helm for eight! I’m thrilled war with Russia is no longer on the table because now that sociopathic woman won’t get a chance to implement her dangerous, ridiculous no-fly zone over Syria. I can’t wait to have millions of undocumented immigrants legalized instead of deported like Obama’s been doing for eight years, and which Trump has now set a path for. Will he make some terrible laws? Of course he will. But so would Hillary have. More fracking, more dirty oil pipelines, more unfettered free trade, deeper income inequality, and worst of all, more wars and millions more dead people. I am immeasurably grateful she isn’t our president, even if Trump is an idiot. He can’t do nearly the long-term damage she could have done. Yes, even with the ability to stack the Supreme Court. At least we know who’s sitting on it! ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/69 "2016-11-13T23:49:22Z")
> [@cochrane](#): > > Not too likely. **Miller** leans towards mod notes, not warnings, and he would have given you one if he were inclined to before he moved the thread. Good to know, thanks. ---
**Author:** ![jayjay](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jayjay/32/6765_2.png) [@jayjay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jayjay)\ **Post date:** [November 13, 2016, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/70 "2016-11-13T23:52:26Z")
> [@Shayna](#): > > Thank you, **Dallas Jones** and **Disgruntled Penguin**. All I can say is, _ **word!** _ > > I know you have me blocked, but I’m going to respond anyway, if nothing else, for the peanut gallery. > > Absolutely freaking **not**. > > You are operating under the utterly false premise that nonvoters have any obligation to vote for _your_ preferred candidate. Wrong. Completely, totally wrong. Candidates aren’t entitled to anyone’s vote; they have to _earn_ that privilege. > > Just because we may not have wanted Trump, doesn’t mean we also didn’t want Hillary and were willing to let the rest of you decide among yourself which asshole was going to win. > > Frankly, I’m in the camp that much preferred Trump for four years than cementing the Oligarchic rule indefinitely, with that warmongering, two-faced (public and private), lying corporate whore who was ready to sell our democracy down the shitter with the TPP and the secret, unelectable, unimpeachable World Trade Court that would govern it, at the helm for eight! > > I’m thrilled war with Russia is no longer on the table because now that sociopathic woman won’t get a chance to implement her dangerous, ridiculous no-fly zone over Syria. > > I can’t wait to have millions of undocumented immigrants legalized instead of deported like Obama’s been doing for eight years, and which Trump has now set a path for. > > Will he make some terrible laws? Of course he will. > > But so would Hillary have. More fracking, more dirty oil pipelines, more unfettered free trade, deeper income inequality, and worst of all, more wars and millions more dead people. > > I am immeasurably grateful she isn’t our president, even if Trump is an idiot. He can’t do nearly the long-term damage she could have done. Yes, even with the ability to stack the Supreme Court. At least we know who’s sitting on it! I have never seen a bigger bunch of mixed bullshit and stupid optimism in my life… ---
**Author:** ![Shayna](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/shayna/32/17976_2.png) [@Shayna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shayna)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2016, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/71 "2016-11-14T00:04:13Z")
Ask me if I care what you think. Remember, I was right about this election and you weren’t. ---
**Author:** ![Disgruntled\_Penguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@Disgruntled\_Penguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Disgruntled_Penguin)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2016, 12:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/72 "2016-11-14T00:40:17Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Then some of the responsibility for Trump’s election is yours. You could have opposed him, but it was more important to you to spite Clinton. Congratulations to you, and to all who thought like you, for helping get us President Trump. I’ll accept that the results of the election are mine when we get mandatory elections. Until then I am under absolutely zero obligation to vote. Period. Until then this is just more alienation of those who did not choose to vote with you. Nothing more. It had zero to do with **spiting** her but being uncomfortable supporting assholes. I am not required to support any assholes and well, I chose not to play the which asshole was worse game. I’m not responsible for how an entire country voted. I am responsible for who I am comfortable with. And I was set to vote for Clinton until she crossed a threshold I was uncomfortable with. As far as I’m concerned, my karma is clean. > [@](#): > > It’s possible there is a different lesson that different people have not yet learned from, isn’t it? Absolutely. This is why you haven’t and won’t see me thrashing the other side, calling them vile names or berating them. Those few days during that initial posting as I said gave me a glimpse of what being on “the other side” of a Clinton campaign feels like and I have no idea how a Trump supporter or just a regular republican perserveres under such immediate and strong antipathy to try and explain it to those who think otherwise. I already knew how it felt to be against a republican Clinton now I know that it’s pretty universal that if you don’t agree 100% with someone politically then there is no chance for a dialog. So, y’all have to excuse me for not towing your party line and respecting the only opinion that matters to me, my own and I’m going to vote based on that opinion. Anyway, since it looks like the old arguments are going to start all over again and I’m not inclined to fight them again, let me say I posted this data point not to say I told you so. I’m too gutted for that. I wanted to let people know who feel that the world is coming to an end that the election doesn’t mean that the republican party has grown stronger but the days of my vote being a gimme because the other guy is worse is over. To me, it’s the universe vs me not democrats vs republicans and when and if those interests align I will again vote for that party. You might say I am a one virtue trumps all kind of voter and that is civil equality. This issue has pushed me so far away from the republican party that I can’t realistically imagine seeing me and them agree in my lifetime but when the democrats considered me and those of like views as inconveniences and people who need to shut up and vote for someone they’re not comfortable with it is one of the worst kinds of rights violations as it’s people you trusted not to be of a certain color revealing their true colors. Please reread this last sentence before replying with the reply I know is coming. Equality is my issue but I’m not currently being oppressed nor will I under a Trump. I don’t tick the right buttons. I already know I was being oppressed by the democrats by how they cavalierly rigged their primary ( that honestly they probably didn’t need to do ) making it crystal clear what they thought of my value tp them. I’m not someone whose opinion needs to be respected I’m a chip that is expected to not have issues but rather rubber stamp theirs. That made it personal and I can’t vote for someone who openly thinks that little of me. it’s a relatively easy fix for the democrats to win me back but I’m not hearing any attempts at this. Just how all the bad in the country is my fault because I didn’t voluntarily give up my own ideals and vote against my major core issue because frankly inequality under the democrats is no more palatable to me than under the republicans and this one was inequality against me. Shit became personal. I’ll say one more thing about Trump supporters. I’ve seen way less rubbing it in your face you lost suckers coming from them than from either the republicans or the democrats the last few elections and frankly that is the one glimmer of hope I have in the sea of negativity right now. Maybe if we, I don’t know, reached out to them we could form a consensus that did not include the more odious parts of their agenda because frankly they only had one choice too and they felt they had to take the bad with the good. I think it entirely reasonable that most of them would prefer not to have to do that. I dunno, just a thought. ---
**Author:** ![Disgruntled\_Penguin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a8b319/32.png) [@Disgruntled\_Penguin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Disgruntled_Penguin)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2016, 12:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/73 "2016-11-14T00:42:29Z")
> [@jayjay](#): > > I have never seen a bigger bunch of mixed bullshit and stupid optimism in my life… I envy you and your sheltered life. It must be nice living in an echo chamber. You might want to try reality sometimes. The crap you’ll hear and see will positively make your head explode. ---
**Author:** ![Lamia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Lamia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamia)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2016, 1:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/74 "2016-11-14T01:41:23Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > The most astonishing thing about this election is the number of people who evidently weren’t paying attention to what was going on around them. There were a LOT of people who were confidently predicting a big Clinton win. I must have been paying better attention than you are now. I hadn’t seen that HuffPo article before, but it’s consistent with what I just said: > [@Lamia](#): > > What’s surprised me is that, post election, people are acting like the polls and the media had been predicting a landslide for Hillary Clinton. **It’s my recollection that while she was expected to win, it was acknowledged to be a close race.** > [@Huffington Post](#): > > **But that doesn’t necessarily mean Clinton will win in a landslide. It’s still a close race in several states** ; Clinton could win with as few as 273 electoral votes. Or she could blow the race out and win 341 or more. The high win probability doesn’t choose between those scenarios ― it just means that the model shows Clinton below 270 is very unlikely. (Emphasis added.) They were (overly) confident that Hillary would win, but the headline of the article was “A High Probability Of Hillary Clinton Winning Doesn’t Mean It Will Be A Blowout”. ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2016, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/75 "2016-11-14T16:39:55Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > Bullshit. Huh, I didn’t know we could call each other liars in Elections. Cool. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2016, 12:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/76 "2016-11-15T00:44:37Z")
> [@Disgruntled\_Penguin](#): > > I’ll accept that the results of the election are mine when we get mandatory elections. Until then I am under absolutely zero obligation to vote. Period. Until then this is just more alienation of those who did not choose to vote with you. Nothing more. The point isn’t about your obligation to vote, but about your obligation to accept your share of the responsibility for your choices. > [@](#): > > It had zero to do with **spiting** her but being uncomfortable supporting assholes. Well, guess who you helped elect! :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2016, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/77 "2016-11-15T00:55:22Z")
On the MSNBC Morning Joe show, [Michael Moore (who predicted Trump would win several months ago) discusses the tragic election](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_rk5rp499Q) — to the point and poignantly. Watch it if you can stand more heart-break. He mentions that Obama went to Flint, drank the poisoned water as if to say it was OK, and thereby stunned the residents of Flint. :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2016, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/78 "2016-11-15T01:14:39Z")
> [@Lamia](#): > > I must have been paying better attention than you are now. I hadn’t seen that HuffPo article before, but it’s consistent with what I just said: > > (Emphasis added.) > > They were (overly) confident that Hillary would win, but the headline of the article was “A High Probability Of Hillary Clinton Winning Doesn’t Mean It Will Be A Blowout”. Of course they had to hedge their bets. But they didn’t really mean it. From the article I linked to— > [@](#): > > Putting all of that together, the model estimates that Clinton is most likely to land at 341 electoral votes. In another 10 years or so, you might actually learn how to pay attention. ---
**Author:** ![Hector\_St\_Clare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/b5ac83/32.png) [@Hector\_St\_Clare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hector_St_Clare)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/79 "2016-11-15T02:17:20Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > She referred to half of _his supporters_. And they were born alienated. Actually, no. About 60-70% of Trump’s supporters and _a third of Barack Obama’s 2012 voters_ disagree with at least some standard liberal claims about race, gender, religion, etc… (For a start, about a third of Obama voters supported a Muslim immigration ban, about a third think ‘Black people are more violent than white people’, probably between a quarter and a third are pro-life, etc…) Obama won a lot of people who qualify as “deplorable” (your words, not mine), either because they agreed with Democratic positions on taxes / economics / the welfare state, because they personally liked Obama, or more likely both. Hillary lost their votes largely because this election turned into a referendum on how bad racism / sexism / religious bigotry are, instead of “do you think rich people should be paying 33% in taxes or 50%”. If you decide to alienate a third of the people you want to vote for you, then you can’t exactly be upset when you lose the election. ---
**Author:** ![Lamia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/8e7dd6/32.png) [@Lamia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamia)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2016, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490/80 "2016-11-15T02:57:13Z")
> [@Flyer](#): > > Of course they had to hedge their bets. But they didn’t really mean it. […] In another 10 years or so, you might actually learn how to pay attention. Well, my ability to pay attention to what is literally being said served me pretty well this time around. I’m not the one who took “A High Probability Of Hillary Clinton Winning Doesn’t Mean It Will Be A Blowout” to mean “This Will Totally Be A Blowout for Hillary!” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-election-result-really-so-surprising/771490.md?page=5)