# Was the Times Square bomb credible? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [May 3, 2010, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152 "2010-05-03T15:19:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![md2000](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/73ab20/32.png) [@md2000](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/md2000)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2010, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/41 "2010-05-07T22:04:14Z")
> [@Death\_of\_Rats](#): > > You are over thinking. This was a disgruntled young man whose life fell apart, who was either tricked or just stupid and made a bomb that was the equivalent of what you would make if you had only heard a basic overview of what a real bomb uses. There is no need, at this point, to read into this any grand, Machiavellian scheme. Too true. What’s the quote “Never attribute to malice what can be best explained by incompetence”? > [@si\_blakely](#): > > I wonder if there is a bit of a thing going on in Pakistan, where radicalised western muslims (with money) get taken to “Training Camps” believing that they are run by al Qaeda, where in fact they are relieved of their money, given the chance to run about with an AK47 for a few weeks, and told to stick propane tanks and petrol in a car, light the blue touchpaper and stand well clear (some more sophisticated operations may spring for a cellphone trigger, but that may be too technical). > > In other words, there is an impression in the mind of the perpetrator that they are doing something for al Qaeda, but in fact they are the victim of a pretty simple con-job that leaves them with no useful skills whatsoever, and leads to these pretty pointless and ineffectual operations. This was my thought too… I mean, how bad could real training at a real Al Qeda camp be? The guy could have come away with a functioning bomb just by doing even a little bit of serious research on the internet. A real training camp would be better, or why haven’t we won the “war on terror”? They guy also got a degree from a US university. How dumb can you be and still get an MBA (even if your dad does have connections at Harvard)? This guy if given proper training should have produced a credible bomb, he couldn’t have been that hard to train. My impression was he wasn’t even seriously trying, it was more just one of those typical “cry for help” actions like we attribute to wayward kids. Except, he’s going to get an awful lot of the wrong kind of help. ---
**Author:** ![Cardinal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal/32/4000_2.png) [@Cardinal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardinal)\ **Post date:** [May 7, 2010, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/42 "2010-05-07T23:11:36Z")
> [@CookingWithGas](#): > > This is the result of the insidious effect over time of movies and TV depicting sensational events that have no basis in fact. A leaking gas tank just wouldn’t sell movie tickets 🙂 I just noticed because of your post that there’s another thing the movie Heat did right: no cars even caught fire in the furious gun battle after the bank robbery, even though they were riddled with bullets. OTOH, Jason Bourne was able to totally asplode a propane tank with a shotgun from about 30 yards. Oops. ---
**Author:** ![Batfish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/a3d4f5/32.png) [@Batfish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Batfish)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2010, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/43 "2010-05-08T00:41:30Z")
[QUOTE=md2000;12429234 …What’s the quote “Never attribute to malice what can be best explained by incompetence”? … [/QUOTE] The motto of the GW Bush administration. Someone should translate it to latin. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2010, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/44 "2010-05-08T02:55:34Z")
> [@Cardinal](#): > > OTOH, Jason Bourne was able to totally asplode a propane tank with a shotgun from about 30 yards. Oops. Well, but he’s Jason f%$\*&#g Bourne. He can do such things. The idea of ripoff “Radical Training Camps” actually run by washout poseurs to separate terrorist-wannabe losers from their money is fascinating to contemplate. Then again, who knows, maybe in Pakistan they use cheapo inferior-quality propane tanks/petrol cans that DO explode easily… ---
**Author:** ![Nunzio\_Tavulari](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Nunzio\_Tavulari](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nunzio_Tavulari)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2010, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/45 "2010-05-08T05:32:07Z")
I’m reminded of the “detective posing as hit-man” scenario. It’s possible that intelligence could uncover people who have destructive desires and direct them to less than competent training facilities. Training camp attendance may not be enough to generate a conviction in many countries, so they just watch those people and wait for them to act on their false knowledge. ---
**Author:** ![Cardinal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal/32/4000_2.png) [@Cardinal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardinal)\ **Post date:** [May 8, 2010, 11:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/46 "2010-05-08T11:24:03Z")
Is this why I can’t buy ammonium nitrate in Sav-On drug any more? I used to spread it on the lawn when my house chore was front lawn maintenance in my first bro-house out of college. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2010, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/47 "2010-05-09T21:02:05Z")
> [@md2000](#): > > My impression was he wasn’t even seriously trying, it was more just one of those typical “cry for help” actions like we attribute to wayward kids. It appears the [White House does not share this impression](http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37046990/ns/us_news-security/). ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2010, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/48 "2010-05-09T21:58:32Z")
It seems to me that something more than stupidity was at work here. Perhaps bomb design by [magical thinking](http://www.themystica.com/mystica/articles/l/laws_of_magic.html)?: > [@](#): > > The Law of Similarity is the first of two sublaws contained within the Law of Association, the second is the Law of Contact or Contagion. The Law of Similarity states that like things produce like things, or that an effect resembles its cause. > … > From the Law of Similarity the magician infers that he can produce any effect just by imitating it. And, from the Law of Contact the magician infers whatever he does to a material object will equally affect the person, or entity, the object was once attached to, whether in the form of a body part or not. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2010, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/49 "2010-05-09T22:20:20Z")
I played baseball with firemen and they say cars don’t blow up. One said he has seen a hundred cars burn. He flips open the hood and sprays them with no worries. ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [May 9, 2010, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/50 "2010-05-09T22:58:47Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Hopefully **Tripler** will pass by this thread. Sorry I got here late. . . I can’t speak to intent, because I can’t provide sources to my opinions. I can, however, say that it was a haphazardly slapped-together “device,” which I think we can all agree had damn good potential to cause harm, but had less-than-a-good chance of actually detonating. With what you all can see, it was clearly not a “professional job,” as in there was no reconnaissance, no specific targeting. . . hell, the guy took off his clothes in front of a CCTV camera–not the actions of a well-trained, well-planned, well-thought out operation. Tripler Sorry I’m late–most of my points have been beaten to death (a lot of speculation, too). ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2010, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/51 "2010-05-10T01:06:03Z")
> [@Tripler](#): > > Sorry I got here late. … Since you’re here. Assuming someone not stupid, would an amount of flash powder sufficient to rupture a properly prepared propane cylinder (weakened tank wall, properly tamped) actually work, or would the resultant mix be too rich? (See: Mythbusters not blowing up a [del]privy[/del] port-a-potty because the mix was too rich.) Is there any amount of flash powder that would initiate an ANFO bomb? (Yes or no, no details please!) CMC fnord! For everybody else, AIUI shit for brains bought his M88s in PA where they’re legal. Trouble is it takes ~50-60 M88s\* to give you the same amount of [flash powder](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flash_powder) that’s in one real M80. \*Or Mwhatevers, none of them can legally contain more than 0.05 grams of flash, an illegal real M80 contains 2.5-3 grams. One M80 is just about enough to blow-up your average sheet metal mailbox (ask me how I know that ;)). Multiple M80s still won’t do much to a propane cylinder because they all need to go off at pretty much the exact same time. It’s really hard to do that by chaining them together with [Visco fuse](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visco_fuse). There are more clever ways to get a single explosion from multiple M80s but they only work well with small numbers. The obvious solution would be to remove the flash from say 10 M80s and make a “M800”, right? Problem is, 25 grams of flash is enough to explode in open air without constraint other than air pressure. One spark landing on the pile of flash and BOOM! And the [Green Man](http://www.thegreenman.me.uk/green.html) forbid you decide to mix up your own flash from one of the many recipes on the intertubes that call for a chlorate instead of perchlorate :eek:! Mixtures containing Chlorates are extremely sensitive to friction and impact. The single most dangerous part of making pipe pipe bombs is screwing the end-cap on, a little bit of mix on the threads and bye-bye hands :eek:. ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2010, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/52 "2010-05-10T02:20:53Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > Since you’re here. > > Assuming someone not stupid, would an amount of flash powder sufficient to rupture a properly prepared propane cylinder (weakened tank wall, properly tamped) actually work, or would the resultant mix be too rich? > (See: Mythbusters not blowing up a [del]privy[/del] port-a-potty because the mix was too rich.) > > Is there any amount of flash powder that would initiate an ANFO bomb? (Yes or no, no details please!) Simple answer–rupture propane cylinder? I believe so, with proper preparations. The propane would be pretty rich, and unfortunately wouldn’t have the brisance to do much except make a big ol’ Hollywood fireball. Initiate ANFO? I don’t think so. . . not a high order detonation. Tripler My opinions are based off of back-‘o’-the-napkin math. Nuthin’ else. [sub]so don’t get any funny ideas, Al Qaeda, see?[/sub] ---
**Author:** ![gladtobeblazed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/85f322/32.png) [@gladtobeblazed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gladtobeblazed)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2010, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/53 "2010-05-10T02:30:10Z")
Does anybody know how often pathetic bombing attempts like this happen in the Middle East? I only read about successful bombings, but never failed bombing attempts. Is it because they simply don’t happen, or because the Western media doesn’t report it? What is the success rate for bombers in let’s say Iraq? ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2010, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/54 "2010-05-10T02:53:51Z")
> [@gladtobeblazed](#): > > Does anybody know how often pathetic bombing attempts like this happen in the Middle East? I only read about successful bombings, but never failed bombing attempts. Is it because they simply don’t happen, or because the Western media doesn’t report it? What is the success rate for bombers in let’s say Iraq? They happen _often_–often enough the timer or explosive train doesn’t work just right to detonate the main charge. You never hear about it because the Western media doesn’t have time to report them, and time is money. I know some individuals who have worked between five to fifteen IEDs a day, for several weeks on end. Tripler Yes, they happen. ---
**Author:** ![gladtobeblazed](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/85f322/32.png) [@gladtobeblazed](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gladtobeblazed)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2010, 3:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/55 "2010-05-10T03:05:24Z")
> [@Tripler](#): > > They happen _often_–often enough the timer or explosive train doesn’t work just right to detonate the main charge. You never hear about it because the Western media doesn’t have time to report them, and time is money. > > I know some individuals who have worked between five to fifteen IEDs a day, for several weeks on end. > > Tripler > Yes, they happen. I see, that makes sense. I was just wondering how this Times Square device actually compares to the average bomb found (not necessarily detonated) in Iraq. Was this guy really incompetent compared with the _average_ bomb-maker or just unlucky? ---
**Author:** ![Tripler](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripler/32/21807_2.png) [@Tripler](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tripler)\ **Post date:** [May 10, 2010, 3:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/56 "2010-05-10T03:24:50Z")
> [@gladtobeblazed](#): > > I see, that makes sense. I was just wondering how this Times Square device actually compares to the average bomb found (not necessarily detonated) in Iraq. Was this guy really incompetent compared with the _average_ bomb-maker or just unlucky? From what I’ve read and seen, “comically inept” would be two choice words. He got lucky in other areas, but I’m not gonna go into it. For any other novices out there: Cookies ‘n’ cream (gallon size) ice cream makes a great main charge. Make sure it’s cold, so the detonation wave propagates better. Besides, melted cookies ‘n’ cream will just “snot” all over the place, and will probably leak out of the container. Double chocolate is also another great substitute. Tripler Target my house. Include a spoon. ---
**Author:** ![Cardinal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cardinal/32/4000_2.png) [@Cardinal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cardinal)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2010, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152/57 "2010-05-11T05:33:59Z")
> [@gladtobeblazed](#): > > I see, that makes sense. I was just wondering how this Times Square device actually compares to the average bomb found (not necessarily detonated) in Iraq. Was this guy really incompetent compared with the _average_ bomb-maker or just unlucky? [http://www.northjersey.com/news/ny\_metro/ny\_city/92741404\_Expert\_ridicules\_bomb\_as\_\_amateur\_hour\_.html](http://www.northjersey.com/news/ny_metro/ny_city/92741404_Expert_ridicules_bomb_as__amateur_hour_.html) Falkenberg said the device, as described by authorities, "doesn’t differ much at all from ‘The Anarchist Cookbook’ " — the underground 1971 manual for crude, homemade explosives. Revelations that the fertilizer used in the device never could have exploded was further proof the threat has been overplayed, he said. “This is amateur hour,” he said. “My kids could build a better bomb than this.” [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/was-the-times-square-bomb-credible/538152.md?page=2)