That’s a pretty big “if”. The Japanese had more planes in the air than Halsey did - the odds were the Japanese would spot the Enterprise first. And the Japanese numerical superiority made it very unlikely that the American planes would reach the Japanese carriers much less sink several of them in their first attack. Even if Halsey had gotten lucky and spotted the Japanese first, the most likely scenario would have been the American planes would have been shot down before they hit any carriers. And then the Japanese planes would have backtracked and sank the Enterprise.
John Stephan took a staff plan which never got even to serious consideration stage, and ran to Mars with it.
Yes, if the Japanese had not surrendered as soon as they did, the United States would have been forced to invade Hawaii. Then, Obama might have been born in America.
The well-received book Shattered Sword goes into some detail as to why the Japanese decided not to invade Hawaii by the time of the Midway campaign – even at the height of their power, they recognized they were not strong enough.
As for an earlier invasion, the Japanese were never in possession of extensive amphibious landing and support resources – and no military on earth was in 1941. They needed what they had for the Philippines and other operations and, like America would later discover for itself, simply couldn’t have supported another full-scale invasion while those were going on. Landing craft allocation to support multiple invasions was very complex and the Americans had great difficulties in 1944 in Europe and the Med that were at first thought to be the results of a lack of landing craft, but now believed to be the result of planning and scheduling difficulties.
The author of Shattered Sword has an online article on the (im)possibility of a Japanese invasion of Hawaii here. Basically the Japanese started the war with a very limited number of available troops (about 11 divisions to secure the whole of SE Asia) and even more limited sealift and logistics capability. To make a serious effort at Hawaii in 1941 they would have to have given up either the Malaya or Philippines operations - which would have rendered the whole exercise pointless, since the major object of the war was to secure the oilfields of the Dutch East Indies, and without taking Manila and Singapore they probably can’t get to the oilfields and they certainly can’t get the oil home.
Plus not even US Navy in 1945, with resources Yamamoto never dreamed of, seriously contemplated launching a major amphibious operation from 2,500 miles away.
Very interesting responses. This was one of those things we never properly talked through in history class. We covered the Pearl Harbor attack then moved on. As I said in the OP I always wondered why the Japanese didn’t drop (parachute) troops too.
The discussion here has made it clearer why that didn’t happen. I didn’t realize how complex an operation it would have been. Thanks.
For those who are into wargaming, the most recent issue of *World at War *magazine simulates this battle: Invasion Pearl Harbor: What If the Japanese Invaded?