# Way too early College Football chatter **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [July 6, 2014, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504 "2014-07-06T23:24:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2014, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/61 "2014-08-17T19:15:50Z")
In a shameless bit of self-promotion, [Oak’s College Pick’em 2014](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=731280) is up and running, details on how to join in the linked thread. No limit on the number of players. First picks should be available a week from tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/62 "2014-08-18T12:55:55Z")
Good for Notre Dame for taking the academic allegations seriously and dealing with them in firmly and quickly. Nice to see that integrity still matters at some places. Not that I don’t have issues with ND for wussing out on their series with Michigan and Michigan State, but at least on this they seem to be doing it the right way. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/63 "2014-08-18T18:03:00Z")
> [@Snupzilla](#): > > I feel the same about the Big Ten, I’ll start paying attention as soon as they have 10 decent teams. No reason to pick on the B1G or the Big 12 – there isn’t a conference in the country with 10 decent teams. Yes, including the mighty SEC, which doesn’t like to talk about Kentucky. 🙂 I speak as a fan of one of those bottom feeders, who is rooting for (1) an actual win against an FBS team this year and (2) keeping it close in the 2nd half. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/64 "2014-08-18T20:10:09Z")
Well, at least one of the “composite” sites now includes the AP: [http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm](http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm) It’s odd to me how several of the higher ranked teams in the composite aren’t even on either the AP or Coaches polls. And some of the ones that made both lists are way down on this one. All I can say is to echo what **DMC** has said above: anything done as guesswork before the first game is suspect at the very least, at least in terms of picking winners based on differences in ranking. But then, you have to go by something, don’t you? I’ve posted this before but it bears examining: [Preseason Prediction Accuracy (2013)](http://preseason.stassen.com/prediction-accuracy/2013.html) Of course, it’s for last year and all that, but a case could be made for the “accuracy factor” if that sort of thing amuses you. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 18, 2014, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/65 "2014-08-18T20:48:15Z")
If I was required to come up with a pre-season prognostication (which are not worth the electrons they’re printed on, but everybody loves them and I’m no exception): I would take last year’s W-L record. If # returning starters is \> x, add 1 win. If \< y, subtract 1 win. A little bit of historical analysis would tell us what value to assign to “x” and “y”. ---
**Author:** ![RetroVertigo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/b38774/32.png) [@RetroVertigo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RetroVertigo)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 12:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/66 "2014-08-19T00:05:45Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > No reason to pick on the B1G or the Big 12 – there isn’t a conference in the country with 10 decent teams. Yes, including the mighty SEC, which doesn’t like to talk about Kentucky. 🙂 > > I speak as a fan of one of those bottom feeders, who is rooting for (1) an actual win against an FBS team this year and (2) keeping it close in the 2nd half. The SEC has 11 “decent” teams, and even the bad teams are capable of holding their own. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/67 "2014-08-19T00:27:30Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > If I was required to come up with a pre-season prognostication (which are not worth the electrons they’re printed on, but everybody loves them and I’m no exception): I would take last year’s W-L record. If # returning starters is \> x, add 1 win. If \< y, subtract 1 win. > > A little bit of historical analysis would tell us what value to assign to “x” and “y”. So, the #1 Offense last year returns 8 of 11 starters, but the 3 are the QB, top RB, and top WR. Replaced with a redshirt Freshman, redshirt Freshman, and Sophomore respectively. Still think they should go up 1 W? Plus one of their in-conference opponents (who they beat on a last-second field goal) is returning 7 of 11 on O, and 8-11 on D. AND they’re playing two OOC teams this year from FBS instead of 1 FBS and 1 FCS. It’s hard. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 1:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/68 "2014-08-19T01:28:47Z")
Rumor out of Columbus is that Braxton Miller (Ohio St. QB) got hurt. As in season ending hurt. Still just a rumor at this point. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 6:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/69 "2014-08-19T06:14:49Z")
> [@Zeldar](#): > > Well, at least one of the “composite” sites now includes the AP: > [College {Football|Basketball|Baseball} Ranking Composite](http://masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm) And now there’s [College Football Poll.com](http://www.collegefootballpoll.com/preseason_comparison_2014.html) If you sort on the “Cons.Rank” heading the deviations from the AP and Coaches lists are easier to see. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 1:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/70 "2014-08-19T13:22:52Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > Rumor out of Columbus is that Braxton Miller (Ohio St. QB) got hurt. > > As in season ending hurt. Still just a rumor at this point. Looks like it’s a pretty solid rumor. Give the Big Ten East title to Michigan State right now. ---
**Author:** ![Karen\_Lingel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karen_lingel/32/18649_2.png) [@Karen\_Lingel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Karen_Lingel)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/71 "2014-08-19T23:02:45Z")
> [@notfrommensa](#): > > **JUST WIN, BABY, JUST WIN** What?!?! Is that the secret? I need to email this to Coach Dykes right away. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/72 "2014-08-19T23:16:00Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > So, the #1 Offense last year returns 8 of 11 starters, but the 3 are the QB, top RB, and top WR. Replaced with a redshirt Freshman, redshirt Freshman, and Sophomore respectively. Still think they should go up 1 W? Plus one of their in-conference opponents (who they beat on a last-second field goal) is returning 7 of 11 on O, and 8-11 on D. AND they’re playing two OOC teams this year from FBS instead of 1 FBS and 1 FCS. > > It’s hard. If I’m returning all 5 of my O-line? Shoot, I might add 2 W’s. 🙂 Granted, it’s hard. I’m skeptical if anyone works that hard at it. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2014, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/73 "2014-08-19T23:33:03Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > If I’m returning all 5 of my O-line? Shoot, I might add 2 W’s. 🙂 > Granted, it’s hard. I’m skeptical if anyone works that hard at it. Seriously? With all the money involved in major CFB? Wow. Maybe people do work hard and there’s just no reliable correlation in the data. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2014, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/74 "2014-08-20T00:43:22Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > Seriously? With all the money involved in major CFB? Wow. > > Maybe people do work hard and there’s just no reliable correlation in the data. If there was accountability, sure. But no one ever loses their job because they picked Clemson instead of Florida State in August. ---
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2014, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/75 "2014-08-20T02:37:53Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > If there was accountability, sure. But no one ever loses their job because they picked Clemson instead of Florida State in August. ? Okay, how about sometime in February you tell me which golfer will win the Masters. No? How about you tell me which horse will win the Kentucky Derby. No? Why not? You have just as much information available to you as the football guys do. Why should anybody lose their job? They play the fucking game for a reason and it’s not anybody’s fault that they can’t predict the outcome of any one game, let alone the hundreds it would take to accurately predict the final Top 25 at the preseason. ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 20, 2014, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/76 "2014-08-20T02:43:43Z")
> [@Zakalwe](#): > > ? Okay, how about sometime in February you tell me which golfer will win the Masters. No? How about you tell me which horse will win the Kentucky Derby. No? Why not? You have just as much information available to you as the football guys do. > > Why should anybody lose their job? They play the fucking game for a reason and it’s not anybody’s fault that they can’t predict the outcome of any one game, let alone the hundreds it would take to accurately predict the final Top 25 at the preseason. Dude…chill. You seem to have a great deal of emotion invested in this topic! Actually, you’re making my point for me. It’s virtually impossible to make any meaningful accurate forecasts before any games are played. Which is why there’s no accountability, because it’s a silly game – the mystery is why they insist on playing it. If I ruled the world there would be no polls until week 3 at the earliest. ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [August 23, 2014, 1:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/77 "2014-08-23T13:24:48Z")
Just in case you hadn’t noticed these CFB threads: > **[Who takes The College Football Belt away from Oklahoma?](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=712025)** > > First off: Be aware that the first game available to pick is not until Aug/30/2014! So there’s no need to hurry making your pick. It just seemed like a way to keep the football chatter going through the dismal months ahead. Refer to Who takes The... Who takes The College Football Belt away from Oklahoma? > **[Week 1 CFB -- Which BCS Top 25 team(s) will lose? --- \<\< corrected poll...](https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=729500)** > > The College Football 2014 Opening Week Top 25 teams’ schedule is shown at and is based on the Final BCS Rankings from last season. Between now and opening kickoff on August 28, pick the Top 25 Team(s) that you expect to LOSE their opening game. ... Week 1 CFB – Which BCS Top 25 team(s) will lose? — \<\< corrected poll \>\> ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2014, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/78 "2014-08-25T19:31:09Z")
I clicked about 3 levels deep on the first thread, and still don’t see a definition of The College Football Belt. What, pray tell, is it? ---
**Author:** ![Zeldar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/b77776/32.png) [@Zeldar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeldar)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2014, 7:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/79 "2014-08-25T19:38:15Z")
> [@jsc1953](#): > > I clicked about 3 levels deep on the first thread, and still don’t see a definition of The College Football Belt. What, pray tell, is it? It’s well explained at [http://collegefootballbelt.com/](http://collegefootballbelt.com/) ---
**Author:** ![jsc1953](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/5daacb/32.png) [@jsc1953](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jsc1953)\ **Post date:** [August 25, 2014, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504/80 "2014-08-25T19:50:39Z")
> [@Zeldar](#): > > It’s well explained at [http://collegefootballbelt.com/](http://collegefootballbelt.com/) That’s kind of an interesting concept! I like it. Deeply, fatally flawed, of course…but interesting. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/way-too-early-college-football-chatter/692504.md?page=5)