But like I said, a simulation with no house limit and infinite pot isn’t really a simulation at all; it is a fiction. As you say, in the real world, a big enough run of losses will happen and will break you.
Heh, I wrote one of those, also. It was on a 386. It was before I’d heard of “the Internet” and therefore couldn’t look up how many numbers there were on a roulette wheel, so I created a simulator that knocked the chances of winning a single bet to a little below 50/50.
I found that the system did not work. I did find some interesting things though. These were the inputs at the beginning of the program.
- How much is the starting bet.
- How much cash did you bring.
- How much do you want to try to win?
Given these inputs, the program would play a few hundred thousand times (it would take overnight). It would play until a) you hit the amount you wanted to win, or b) you went broke. It would then log that as a win or bust.
I was shocked at the percent of losing games, even if I’d have $1 million and only bet $5 at a time.
I could only get a very high winning percentage with a huge bank of cash, small bets, and small amounts I’d try to win.
What I couldn’t reconcile at first is how could I lose with small bets? How could I be getting such big streaks of bad luck? What I finally realized is though the chances of losing $1 M on a streak of losses starting at $1 is very low, you have to play a shitload of games at $1 each to win anything substantial. When you play a shitload of games, it becomes more likely that you hit one of those unlikely streaks.
The interesting thing was that there was no risk-free bet. Even if I started with millions, only tried to win $50, there was a small chance you’d lose everything. Imagine how big of a schmoe you’d feel like if you lost millions trying to win $50.
What would be interesting (and I can’t remember if I did it at the time) would be to try the simulation several times with the same wallet amount and the same expected winnings, but to vary the amount of the starting bets.
However, he was probably playing a “high roller” game. This won’t help ME, but don’t you think that if Bill Gates, Warren Buffet. Donald Trump or Oprah Winfrey walked into a random Vegas STRIP casino and said I want to play roulette, but with no MAXIMUM bet, that they would comply?
Also, someone said that the ONLY game where you can beat the house is Poker. However, don’t you think that Sports betting could offer opportunities with sufficient number crunching? My dad won something like a $100,000 when he bet on Buster Douglas to beat Michael Tyson years ago (it was the only sports bet he ever placed since we just happened to be in Vegas during the fight, and dad loved boxing).
Let me pose the question as a hypothetical. If the President either just for kicks (or perhaps to fund Black Ops projects) said to the head of the CIA and NSA, use our most advanced rescources, including supercomputers, psychics (if they still have a few around after supposedly ending project Stargate), and sports experts to predict good bets against the Vegas line. Could the government consistently win money (also assuming they WOULD NOT seek to directly intervene in sporting event outcomes or put out dis-information to alter the line)? IF they COULD do so, even in theory then it is at least POSSIBLE that a citizen or group of citizens could do the same. I think that this is especially the case in Boxing where the line will often open far out of line with the SKILL of the fighter, due to differences in name recognition (the line usually adjusts later on). As Captain Kirk said of a strange creature encountered on a mining colony “if we can make it bleed, we can kill it.” (not sure if that quote works, but I’ve always wanted to use it).
One other point. The amount you can win using this system is limited by the size of your INITIAL bet. Thus, a ten dollar starting bet limits you to a ten dollar win under most scenarios, after the first few betting levels. So in a TRUE no table limit game it would make sense to START with an amount of at least $10,000 if you were someone like Bill Gates. Unless, Bill got tired of the whole Microsoft thing (and the fact that his wealth is only half of what it once was) and placed 50 Billion on Red!
There is also one other ethically questionable angle that could be utilized. One COULD use cash advances from credit cards. Let’s say that you had $100,000 in available cash advance (at one time when we had a mortgage/appraisal buisiness I had about $140,000 in available cash advance credit and my wife another 60K or so in available CA credit). ONE COULD advance the money, and then place it all on Red or Black (or Pass/Don’t Pass in Craps). Consider, also that CURRENT Chapter Seven bankruptcy law allows you to WRITE off gambling debts especially if the debts are more than six months old at the time of filing (there is an exception in the law that provides that these debts can be disallowed if INTENT is shown, but this seldom utilized since it is so difficult to prove). It’s ironic that the same law is much more likely to NOT allow writing off NECESSITIES. In fact, I knew a guy (also in the mortgage business) who filed Chapter Seven on more than $500,000 in debt (about 200K in credit card debt) and the court didn’t blink an eye in allowing it to be discharged.
After winning such a bet one could buy a nice, used boat for around 100K and then retire to one of the South Pacific islands where the cost of living is low (with about $100,000 in cash to live on maybe taking tourists on charters to earn a little additonal revenue.). Makes me wonder why I’m in nursing school when maybe I could be in Fiji or somewhere around Pitcairn Island about now!
Most casinos do have VIP areas, with insanely high mimimums to keep riffraff out.
If anyone could consistantly win, the bookies would quickly get better or get out of the business.
consistently. Even, with table games like Craps and Blackjack the casinos could probably change the rules and offer a theoretically EVEN game (with best play) and still earn lots of money since MOST people don’t bet optimally (in Craps for instance the Pass/Don’t Pass line is the best bet, but many people play the other “poor” bets).
In fact, if I was rich I might consider opening an EVEN MONEY casino. MAYBE, I would charge a cover depending upon how popular it proved to be. I would simply make “minor” rules changes so that best play would give an “even” opportunity in all games (many games are already quite close to even money). The great VALUE in the approach would be its MARKETING value to attract gamblers over OTHER casinos (at least until Tony Soprano paid me a visit).
Something ELSE I would consider trying is a SKILLS area. Everyone considers themselves to be good at SOMETHING. For some people like me it is chess, and free throw shooting. For others it might be arm wreastling, billiards, sports trivia or darts. The trick is that ANYTHING can be handicapped so that the house will win in the long run (at least against most people). Thus, we could take advantage of this psychological belief that people have that they are “really good” at something. It wouldn’t matter that Larry Bird occasionally came in and cleaned me out on the free throw competition game so long as on average we one money (and the crowd would probably ALSO end up playing table games even if they CAME for the skills games).
You don’t need to make any rules changes. Just replace the odds on your bets to the True odds, instead of the odds most casinos give. In other words, instead of giving even money for a red/black bet on a roulette wheel, you’d have to give slightly better than even money (due to the greens). The exact amount would be, I believe, nineteen dollars on a nine-dollar bet, for a wheel with two greens.
Of course, you’d HAVE to charge a cover, or charge for drinks or something…otherwise you’d (in all probability, of course) never make any money.
[QUOTE=Garfield226]
You don’t need to make any rules changes. Just replace the odds on your bets to the True odds, instead of the odds most casinos give. In other words, instead of giving even money for a red/black bet on a roulette wheel, you’d have to give slightly better than even money (due to the greens). The exact amount would be, I believe, nineteen dollars on a nine-dollar bet, for a wheel with two greens.
craps SELDOM make the “best available” bets. Thus, the AVERAGE player probably gives up three to five percent to the house IN ADDITION to the built in advantage of the game. Thus, in craps ONLY the pass/don’t pass line would be brought to TRUE parity (the other “sucker” bets would still be available and quite probably still utilized). In Blackjack only BEST play (without counting of course) would achieve parity, thus if you hit on 16 against a seven showing, you WOULDN’t be at parity (or any other less than optimal bet). Slots would be an issue either I would use these a “Loss Leaders”, OR, ONLY give “99.5 percent” payback, or charge a cover (or maybe I would only give TRUE parity on the really expensive Dollar or Five Dollar slots, other slots would still be the best in town).
Drinks may or may not be free. Maybe we would charge a minimal fee. The point is that it would serve as a powerful MARKETING differentiation tool.
Of course, you’d HAVE to charge a cover, or charge for drinks or something…otherwise you’d (in all probability, of course) never make any money.
Also, you would change single-number bet odds to $37 on a one-dollar bet, instead of the common $35.
Reasoning:
If I place a single-number bet, the odds of me winning are 1 (I picked one number) in 38 (there are 38 slots on the wheel).
The odds of the casino winning are 37 (non-winning slots) of 38.
By multiplying what happens (i.e. how much the casino wins or loses per bet) by the odds of it happening, you get the expected value.
Currently, with 1:35 odds on a single number bet, the casino pays out $35 when it loses, and collects $1 when it wins.
What Happens | Odds | Expected Value
+1 (casino wins) .9737 .9737
-35 (casino loses) .0263 -.9211
Adding the expected values for the two possibilities yeilds slightly more than a nickel, which is how much the casino expects to make for each dollar bet made. In your even money casino, you’d give odds of 37:1 on a single number bet. You’d pay out $37 when the player won, and collect $1 when the player lost. Your table looks like this:
What Happens | Odds | Expected Value
+1 (casino wins) .9737 .9737
-37 (casino loses) .0263 -.9737
Notice that the odds didn’t change, only your expected value, which now exactly balances the expected value from a win. Therefore, you’d expect to win about as much as you lost, if you used this payout system.
Better raise those drink prices.
And on preview:
Well, yeah. But if you market it as an “Even money casino” people will be expecting an even money return on all their bets, best strategy or not. And in that case, as I’ve said, you’ll probably never make money.
in my “hypothetical” casino the CATCH is that generally only ONE type of bet on each game would earn true EVEN odds (and that bet would be fully disclosed). Thus, on Roulette for example ONLY the Red/Black bet would pay equally. However, some people due to preference, habit, or recklessness (traits seldom in short supply) would still make the “bad” bets. Also, don’t forget my SKILLS section. NO PLACE else in town has anything like that. All I need is about a hundred million to get the ball rolling…
Not necessarily, as long as other people consistently lose. Isn’t the bookmaker actually redistributing money lost by some to people who won, sort of, more indirectly but in the same way lottery does?
I don’t think the skill sections could work. It would attract specialists, loaded with money (and more and more loaded as they consistently win). A couple grand master level chess players coming on a regular basis would have you go broke quickly.
Besides, i’m not sure how you could provide a challenge which could be interesting for a lot of people. For most people, your challenge will be either “easy” (and you’ll lose money) ot too difficult and they won’t play.
Even if you put in place a “handicap” system, you must not forget that there are people who aren’t stupid, out there. They’ll know their actual competence in the skill tested and they’ll stop playing as soon as they reach their limit. And your “skill section” will attract a lot of such people, since it will be a sure and safe way to make some money. You’ll be, basically, paying people to display their skills.
Go to Las Vegas and have a good time. If you win, fine. If you lose count the loss as the cost of entertainment. The casino makes sure that the odds are stacked in its favor. There is no system that will beat the odds over the long haul.
Ah yes, sorry. Dumb oversight on my part. I should have noticed that before posting.
For the skills section, both the easiest and safest way to do it would be the same way the casinos currently do poker. Let the players play against each other, and charge a flat fee. So you might rent out a chess board for $10, say, and let the players make whatever bets they want between themselves. The game is perfectly fair, the players can judge their skill for themselves against their opponent, and win or lose, you’re guaranteed your ten bucks a game.
And as for beating the sports bets, the bookies set the odds based on how people bet. So if, for instance, a lot of people irrationally favor a particular school to win, no matter what, then the bookies will favor that school to win. If a lot of people started doing the extensive research on the true odds and bet accordingly, then the bookies’ odds would shift closer to the true odds (how much closer would depend on what proportion of people were doing so). The bookie’s goal, in setting his line, is to pay out the same amount of money regardless of who wins.
This attitude is also why a lot of people who initially win nevertheless leave Vegas poorer in the end. Once you’ve won, it’s not their money, it’s your money. Take it and leave. Don’t think of your winnings as worth any less than any other money.
I’m presently sitting on a lifetime net win from the casinos: I have no interest in gambling whatsoever, but a family member goaded me with the old “why did you even come along if you’re not going to play and have fun?” guilt trip.
I bet on a Keno machine, numbers 1-2-3-4-5. The family member was furious that I wasn’t “taking this seriously.” I then hit all five, cashed out my winnings (about $60), and left, although NOT before pontificating about the fact that 1-5 were as likely to come up as any other numbers, and picking a “random looking” set was unnecessary.