# We are going to war. Mark my words. **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 11, 2017, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326 "2017-05-11T01:46:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/41 "2017-05-11T14:46:43Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > In 1950 calling our involvement in Korea a non-war didn’t sound so absurd. In the 60s saying Nam wasn’t a war was a bit hokey but we gave it another shot. Since the we’ve been involved in so many non-war acts of war that it’s just utter nonsense to make that kind of distinction. The one strike against Syria was an act of war and that scumbag Assad hasn’t responded in kind because he can’t. I’m not simply unsympathetic to that distinction, I consider it 1984 Newspeak. So we seem to be in agreement on everything but how dishonest it is for some folks to argue the duck walking and quacking thing isn’t a duck. I don’t think every act of war we’ve committed was wrong, but I do consider it wrong to make war and pretend it’s something else. I wasn’t alive during the Korean “conflict”, but I was during Vietnam. I don’t recall anyone being shy about calling it a war. Anyone saying it wasn’t a war would’ve been laughed off he planet. (That is not to saying anyone didn’t try, but they wouldn’t have been taken seriously on the matter.) Same thing with Iraq (both I and II), and again in Afghanistan. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 2:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/42 "2017-05-11T14:47:44Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > Trump has nothing to do with this. > The aim is (and has been since the 1990’s) to destroy the secular state of Syria. > > I would expect another ‘gas attack’ sometime soon. After which there willl be swift action by the US, to protect the Syrian people from their insane murderous dictator,of course. I know you think Assad is being set up/blameless (and not an ‘insane murderous dictator’, though hard to believe anyone can believe that) for the previous ‘gas attack’(s), but you’d think the fact that one hasn’t happened again since the US bombed that Syrian airbase would be a good indication that you might want to rethink your premise. I mean, when tensions were at their highest there, THAT would have been the time for ISIS or AQ or whoever it is you think has gas to do another attack…not wait until things have calmed down in the region and the focus has shifted to North Korea. Occam’s Razor seems to indicate that the guy responsible is, in fact, Assad, that the Syrian military did the deed and that there haven’t been any further use because Assad et al are worried that the US will strike them again if they use the stuff. I’m sure none of this will convince you, however, but hard to let a CT comment like yours just go without some attempt at sanity. As for the OP, I think war is possible, but I don’t think Trump et al are planning one or preparing for one. I don’t think Trump et al could plan a free beer event at a red neck picnic effectively. IF we go to war it will be because Trump and his administration have boxed themselves and the US into a corner by using threats and bluster and someone (Kimmy, Assad the supposed non-murderous non-dictator, maybe Putin) calls him on it…or does something particularly stupid (Assad and Kimmy being the best candidates for this). Trump won’t back down like Obama did with his red line and will lash out and things will degenerate from there. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/43 "2017-05-11T14:58:26Z")
> [@R.P.McMurphy](#): > > I said it on a different message board. My son was doing an Outward Bound trip in Oregon. He observed a long train loaded with brand new military equipment (tanks, personnel carriers, Medical vehicles, etc. Brand new.) headed across a valley towards Portland. I would be more inclined to take your predictions seriously if you knew how military procurement worked. You don’t buy “brand new” tanks or personnel carriers in anticipation of starting a war the next month. These things are specialized equipment, which are built in tiny volumes with long lead times. We don’t have tank or aircraft factories sitting around just waiting to spring into action. The assembly lines are either open, or they are closed. The plant that refurbishes the Abrams tank (we haven’t bought any new ones since the mid-90s) can turn out two refurbished tanks a day. With a few years’ notice they could start building new ones again - at a rate of two or three a week, maybe. ---
**Author:** ![DrCube](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/a3d4f5/32.png) [@DrCube](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrCube)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/44 "2017-05-11T15:03:27Z")
> [@R.P.McMurphy](#): > > I said it on a different message board. My son was doing an Outward Bound trip in Oregon. He observed a long train loaded with brand new military equipment (tanks, personnel carriers, Medical vehicles, etc. Brand new.) headed across a valley towards Portland. > > I occurred to me that we were preparing for war. A few months later that’s exactly what happened. Wars don’t happen on impulse. After Iraq invaded Kuwait it took 6 months to prepare for our invasion. Reservists transfer equipment this time of year all over the country for their two weeks’ active duty exercises. Not to mention, active duty military transfers equipment around the country quite often for various reasons. Just for one example, when I was in the Army we transported a whole brigade at this time of year from Ft. Riley, KS to the National Training Center (NTC) in the Mojave desert by train. This was something _all_ Army brigades had to do once every three years, I seem to recall. I don’t doubt that Trump is itching for a war, because it is a proven method for gaining political support in the short term and making people forget about all those scandals and coverups. But I don’t believe your observations demonstrate any such thing. The Army moves. That’s what it does, and that’s what it trains to do all year in peace and war. Sometimes they get new equipment, but I doubt you could tell because they usually keep it clean and in working order, and it’s not like this year’s humvee model looks any different from last year’s. Not to mention everyone else’s nitpick that we’ve _been_ at war for a generation now, at least. But I think you are talking about a traditional boots-on-ground invasion, and seeing clean tanks on trains just isn’t evidence of that. ---
**Author:** ![spifflog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c5a1d2/32.png) [@spifflog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/spifflog)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/45 "2017-05-11T15:06:59Z")
> [@R.P.McMurphy](#): > > Hope you are not doing intel. Stuff like that are signals that something is up. Stuff like that are signals of nothing at all. The fact that you think so speaks volumes of your predictions. As someone said up thread, do you think the Trump administration put in the “order” for more tanks and trucks, like last week, and they are being delivered now? Do you really believe that’s how procurement in DoD works? ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/46 "2017-05-11T15:07:08Z")
Trump has effectively handed foreign policy to Mattis and McMaster - he doesn’t want the problems, its way, way, way too much work. Esp. at weekends. There won’t be a war; occasionally a bout of wind and piss, a few random missiles landing in the sea or a field but Trump doesn’t have the balls, the interest or much he even cares about in a political sense. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/47 "2017-05-11T15:29:50Z")
> [@XT](#): > > I know you think Assad is being set up/blameless (and not an ‘insane murderous dictator’, though hard to believe anyone can believe that) for the previous ‘gas attack’(s), but you’d think the fact that one hasn’t happened again since the US bombed that Syrian airbase would be a good indication that you might want to rethink your premise. So, you would agree that if another ‘gas attack’ were to be reported, in the near future, that this would be mightily fishy? ---
**Author:** ![DSYoungEsq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c6cbf5/32.png) [@DSYoungEsq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSYoungEsq)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/48 "2017-05-11T15:29:57Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > Defined “Declared a war.” > > If you mean to present a foreign ambassador with a diplomatic letter stating “Our countries are in a state of war,” that’s true. > > However, in U.S. legal terms, Congress authorizing war is what makes war legal; the AUMF, Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, and the like are legally the same thing in regards to what he Constitution demands within the U.S. legal framework. The quaint notion that it’s only a war if you hand a stuffy letter to a diplomat the way they did in a limited period of history is just that, a quaint notion. It would be silly to characterize wars as not being wars because a letter wasn’t handed from one guy to another guy. Well, yes and no. The Supreme Court has never (to my knowledge) ruled on when the Congress must “declare war”. The only early cases touching the subject make it clear that a) the President doesn’t have to await a declaration to repel an attack (the Bey of Tripoli), and b) a state of war can exist based solely upon the actions of the President, at least if the war starts while Congress is not in session (the Civil War). But none of those cases involved a situation where the United States initiated hostilities against an opposing nation state. The Court scrupulously avoided the issue during Vietnam and the Reagan years, denying cert. to all attempts to appeal Circuit Court dismissals on the basis of the political question doctrine. The War Powers Act created an uneasy truce between the Executive and the Legislative branches as to how war was to be waged. If you want to take everything done in that regard since that Act as determining a “common law” of the power to “declare war”, I suppose we can agree with your assertion that things like the AUMF of 2001 act as declarations of war. However I point out that declaring war was something that had specific consequences and limitations in international law, and it’s unclear the extent to which those continue to exist under something like the AUMF (see Guantánamo Bay). ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/49 "2017-05-11T15:39:08Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > So, you would agree that if another ‘gas attack’ were to be reported, in the near future, that this would be mightily fishy? Would depend on circumstances, but yeah…if one happened in the near future (as opposed to, say, a year or two down the road) it would be worthy of at least a closer look. The ones that have happened in the past have been pretty obviously Assad/Syrian military in origin, but with Syria actually on notice now that the US will almost certainly strike it would be a bit suspicious if out of the blue there was another gas attack (they were real gas attacks btw, regardless of who you think did them) that seemed to frame Assad et al. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/50 "2017-05-11T15:47:13Z")
> [@R.P.McMurphy](#): > > All the signs are pointing to a war. Trump is under fire so “Wag the Dog” is an obvious strategy. > > I have a friend that lives close to Luke AFB in Arizona. They have a wing of F-35’s and a wing of F-16’s, I’ve been there over many months. The Air Force trains out of Luke AFB. Typically they take off, circle to the west and do whatever they do on the other side of the mountains. > > That has changed. They are doing maneuvers that are very unusual. There are cargo/refueling planes flying out of there that have never been there before. Obviously, this signals Arizona’s plan to annex New Mexico. Be very afraid. The real sign of war came home to me yesterday - the docs’ lounge was out of bananas. Could it be that the entire crop has been commandeered to feed our troops during the upcoming invasion of Iran? :eek: ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 3:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/51 "2017-05-11T15:56:22Z")
> [@Jackmannii](#): > > Obviously, this signals Arizona’s plan to annex New Mexico. Be very afraid. > > The real sign of war came home to me yesterday - the docs’ lounge was out of bananas. Could it be that the entire crop has been commandeered to feed our troops during the upcoming invasion of Iran? :eek: You obviously uncovered evidence of our new cloned human-gorilla-hybrid army! ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/52 "2017-05-11T16:24:45Z")
> [@R.P.McMurphy](#): > > The observation was made longer than 5 months before the invasion. Congress wasn’t even debating the issue at the time. Pay attention to the things you’re being shown. The AUMF was five months before the invasion; I have provided you with undeniable evidence that the war was clearly in the works long BEFORE the AUMF. What the heck do you think they were voting on in October of 2002? God, we’d been talking about it for months. It is a matter of historical fact that he Bush administration was talking about invading Iraq the week after 9/11, and American and British forces were being increased in the region throughout 2002. More pertinently, the U.S. government waged a disinformation campaign to convince its own people and the world that Iraq had strategic WMD capability - notably the “Alumininum tubes” and “Yellowcake uranium” lies - up to and including lying to most of the Senate that Iraq could strike the eastern United States with chemical weapons. This stuff was all over the news. Do a search of any major newspaper in 2002; the war was being discussed more than a year before it started. It was sadly apparent before the AUMF vote was taken that Bush had no intention of accepting a diplomatic resolution. When was your brilliant insight into this thing people saw coming six to twelve months in advance? > [@](#): > > Hope you are not doing intel. Stuff like that are signals that something is up. I am in fact a former military intelligence professional and find this claim laughable. It is, maybe, one thousandth the evidence I would need to convince a decision-maker that war was imminent. “I saw a train with military vehicles on it going from one place to another in the United States” is a meaningless data point without a huge about of corroborating evidence, because that happens all the time, whether war is afoot or not. If you want strategic indicators of impending war, as has been poionted out, that is a very dumb one; the USA cannot simply summon up brand new vehicles as if building them in “Command and Conquer.” Signs of war in Korea would be a great many indicators of the staging of greatly increased American and Allied military presence in the region: - Thousands more troops, in divisional to corps strength, restaged to Korea and Japan - Deployment of two or more carrier groups to the area - Deployment of a greatly increased number of air assets of all types to Korea, Japan, and other bases within strategic range - Substantial callup of reserve troops - Quick-construction of staging areas in the ROK, preceding by the summoning of engineer assets - Creation of a order of battle for Allied forces in Korea, featuring some top commanders leaving their current posts and assuming new posts there Have these things happened? Of course, I am sure Trump is more than stupid enough to order a quick missile strike on North Korea, but I am sure he’s stupid enough to launch a missile strike on Belgium, too. ---
**Author:** ![Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/13edae/32.png) [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stranger_On_A_Train)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/53 "2017-05-11T16:49:27Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Just to be clear, the Democrats had a majority in the Senate when the Iraq War AUMF was voted on. A lot of folks seem to forget that. But when Congress starts debating a new AUMF, we can put ourselves in that position again. As for your prediction, I notice you used “open conflict” as opposed to “war”. We’re in “open conflict” in any number of places right now-- have been for years. Care to be more specific? But back in 2002 there was broad bipartisan support for invading Iraq under the thesis that the still fresh “War On Terror” was the nation’s leading crisis. (And amazing as it seems, despite the contentious election and vote count scandal in 2000, Republicans and Democrats could still work together on certain issues of common interest.) By “open conflict” I mean essentially Congressionally-approved essentially unrestrained conventional military action in contrast to individual strikes authorized exclusively by executive order, covert action by CIA/JSOC , or joint military action under the auspices of UN control. Stranger ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/54 "2017-05-11T17:36:07Z")
> [@Stranger\_On\_A\_Train](#): > > But back in 2002 there was broad bipartisan support for invading Iraq under the thesis that the still fresh “War On Terror” was the nation’s leading crisis. (And amazing as it seems, despite the contentious election and vote count scandal in 2000, Republicans and Democrats could still work together on certain issues of common interest.) OK. Yes, sadly true. About half the Democratic Senators voted for the AUMF. I just wanted to contrast that to the situation now where the GOP is a majority in both houses. But… > [@](#): > > By “open conflict” I mean essentially Congressionally-approved essentially unrestrained conventional military action in contrast to individual strikes authorized exclusively by executive order, covert action by CIA/JSOC , or joint military action under the auspices of UN control. …there is very little support for “boots on the ground” type of warfare by either party now. We’ve gotten used to conflicts waged by air with little chance of American casualties, but even when we do have limited numbers of “boots on the ground” the pols are careful to call them advisers or trainers. I’m not seeing that the country has any taste for conventional warfare at present. Not by the majority of the American people and not by the majority in Congress. I’m more than open to being corrected on that point if I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![Weisshund](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ba8739/32.png) [@Weisshund](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Weisshund)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/55 "2017-05-11T19:04:50Z")
I am so glad to see that so many have 0 idea how this stuff works, No matter Devil/Angel Demon/Saint Moron/Genius sits in the big highchair. @the OP You do realize, at the time you say you were supposedly “warning” us in 2002? you were already terrible late to the party, everybody already long knew what was going on. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/56 "2017-05-11T21:10:00Z")
No one knew how difficult it was to prepare for war! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 9:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/57 "2017-05-11T21:19:00Z")
> [@R.P.McMurphy](#): > > All the signs are pointing to a war. Trump is under fire so “Wag the Dog” is an obvious strategy. > > I have a friend that lives close to Luke AFB in Arizona. They have a wing of F-35’s and a wing of F-16’s, I’ve been there over many months. The Air Force trains out of Luke AFB. Typically they take off, circle to the west and do whatever they do on the other side of the mountains. > > That has changed. They are doing maneuvers that are very unusual. There are cargo/refueling planes flying out of there that have never been there before. > > My guess is that Trump will bolster his popularity by making good on his promise to take out ISIS and kill them and their families. That points to Syria. After that, who knows, Afghanistan? North Korea? He will probably use Syria to send a message to N. Korea. > > I know I will be poo-poo’d on this but I made a similar observation on some unusual military activity prior to the 2nd Gulf War. I was right. Check back with me in about 6 months. We’ve been in a constant ongoing state of war in some form or other for well over a decade. For this prediction to mean something, it would have to be more than just a typical airstrike or launch of cruise missiles etc. ---
**Author:** ![Sherrerd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sherrerd/32/8_2.png) [@Sherrerd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sherrerd)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/58 "2017-05-11T22:51:53Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > We’ve been in a constant ongoing state of war in some form or other for well over a decade. For this prediction to mean something, it would have to be more than just a typical airstrike or launch of cruise missiles etc. “Typical airstrike or launch of cruise missiles”—you’re claiming that the US launches cruise missiles on some sort of routine basis? ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [May 11, 2017, 11:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/59 "2017-05-11T23:02:16Z")
> [@R.P.McMurphy](#): > > My guess is that Trump will bolster his popularity by making good on his promise to take out ISIS and kill them and their families. That points to Syria. RickJay covered the quality of analysis. Even with a weak analysis you made a prediction. Let’s clarify how we measure whether you were right in 6 months. If you leave that measure vague it’s not really a prediction since just about anything can be classed as being accurate. We’ve already been engaging Islamic State on the ground and from the air inside Syria for about a year and a half. In a sense you could claim you were right every day since the election, even when Obama was still President. What increased level of engagement in Syria do you see being necessary to certify your prediction as correct? - A maneuver Brigade Combat Team, or greater, deployed to attack IS? - A minimum increase in troop levels deployed inside Syria? - A certain increase in the number of air sorties flown against IS? - Something else? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [May 12, 2017, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326/60 "2017-05-12T13:18:32Z")
I miss when I lived near the Navy train for the supply base. I always knew when we were gearing up for a major conflict as the train would go from running less than once per day to many times a day for many days. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-are-going-to-war-mark-my-words/786326.md?page=4)