I am just making those numbers up to make a point.
Really high radiation…you get dead soon or darn soon.
Low radiation…we have some ideas on those numbers because folks get exposed to those sort of levels now and then and its not that far from radiation levels pretty much very large numbers of people are exposed to.
It is IMO and understanding that the medium levels are where the data is the “thinest”.
I was trying to make a point that you shield the astronauts just enough that you are pretty sure they will survive the trip. Because there is a damn good chance the trip will kill them anyway even if there was NO radiation.
Then after its all over you’ll eventually find out how bad middle level radiation actually is or isnt.
And how to express cancer risk numbers and what they REALLY mean is whole nother ball of wax I am definitely not qualified to blather on about.
Earth is small, and fragile. As technology advances it will become ever more easy for some person or group to lay waste to it. Accidentally or otherwise. And also as technology advances truly large scale projects will become more feasible, and it would be helpful to not have those pesky people and ecologies in the way.
Ideally though you’d spread across the whole system and beyond, not just Mars.
When you realize that Mars, with its frigid, thin, poisonous atmosphere and highly irradiated surface is probably friendler to Earth life than anywhere else in our solar system, you then start to realize how very, very special Sol III really is.
But what about O’Neill cylinders at LaGrange points between Earth and Moon orbits? Full strength, free solar power; the ability to produce space-only technologies like steelfoam and true sphere ball bearings, no problem with the garbage disposal (point at the sun and push.) plus the huge advantage that when all the industry is in space, we can get back to just plain agriculture down here. It’ll take us centuries to clean up the mess we’ve already made, but at least we won’t be generating more. Or am I the only one left whose pulse quickens on reading “High Frontier”?
Until we’re ready to send six or seven ships and a crew of 30 or 40 to a mostly self-built colony that we can supply regularly until it’s truly self-sufficient, why bother? Actually sending people to Mars would be the last step. Sending four people to Mars in a can serves no purpose.
Building serious telescopes on the back of the moon serves a purpose, and is probably cheaper and easier too. We should build up to something like that first.
But it’s still only one place. And in the more pessimistic scenarios, life on Earth is being actively targeted by out of control machines, deadly nanotech/superbiotech, or otherwise rendered lethal by things that just wouldn’t exist on Mars ( or off Earth in general ).
Having only one biosphere is dangerous; especially as we become powerful enough that we can destroy it by accident…
There’s no point in people to Mars or anywhere else unless they intend to live there. So first we need to get viable independent communities going off-planet that will help to assemble a Mars colony and experience some of its problems within close range of Earth support. We should only go to Mars or anywhere else except as a permanent settlement after sending extensive life support ahead.
If life on Earth is being actively targeted for comprehensive elimination (an extremely complicated and expensive task) why would it be any great extra burden to include Mars colonies in the destruction? Indeed, given their likely dependence on Earth for supplies (at least for the foreseeable future) no direct action may be needed - they’ll quickly fail from neglect.
One biosphere containing an enormous number of different environments and habitats. It’s going to be quite challenging to zap them all.
There would be lots of volunteers. Older military and aviation people would be qualified to do the job. You wouldn’t want anybody who is truly suicidal and unstable but someone with a decent sense of their own mortality and the willingness to go out on a high note would be good.
We could cut the NEA and the Peace Corps. That’s half a bil right there.
Of course, we could somehow scrape up that extra 3-4 billion a year somewhere. Try to spark another boom in engineering and science, laying the groundwork for expanded industry and technology now, and into the future; giving a sense of awe, hope, accomplishment, and pride in their own achievement to the American people, then the western world, and even humanity at a whole. Something tangible, something to point to besides records of martial prowess or economic bulk. Something that says “look what can be done, look what you can aspire to. Look what we can do, with just the will to do it and a system that works.”
…or we could skip it. Just keep writhing, whining in the mud while the leaders talk, and talk, and talk.
So, how do you say “A new life awaits you in the off-world colonies” in Chinese?
