We Have Betrayed the Kurds

[Sherrerd]

It is being suggested–by Putin critic (and chess Grandmaster) Garry Kasparov, among others–that the ‘al-Baghdadi operation’ may have been Trump’s payoff for letting Turkey ethnic-cleanse the Kurds:

Garry Kasparov @Kasparov63
Isn’t it obvious that this is what happened here? Surely Putin & Erdogan gave up al-Baghdadi in exchange for Trump abandoning northern Syria and the Kurds. A quid pro quo, I believe it is called.

Quote Tweet
Mig Greengard @chessninja
People we call US allies always seem to be harboring the world’s worst terrorists. When it suits them, they can kick them out or share their whereabouts. They’re just bargaining chips, like everything else to such regimes.

Garry Kasparov

Questions have arisen about how the bombings carried out by Russia and Syria apparently left the home of al-Baghdadi mysteriously untouched, so that Trump could “heroically” move in, today:

Two sources have confirmed to the New York Times that Baghdadi’s location in Idlib was confirmed as far back as early July, so 3.5 months ago. I spent months working on his obituary. Here’s what I can share now: …

[thread that follows is by New York Times correspondent Rukmini Callimachi:https://twitter.com/rcallimachi/status/1188514608056811530

Another odd feature of this story is the “instant DNA analysis” of the remains of the purported al-Baghdadi. Does instant-DNA-analysis exist? If so, why haven’t we heard about it, before?
If Trump sold the Kurds for what he hoped would be good publicity (as the heroic killer of the ISIS leader), that is surely something that might be of interest to the International Criminal Court.

[HurricaneDitka]

The ICC can be interested in whatever it wants, but it has no jurisdiction over Americans.

[Sherrerd]

@HurricaneDitka

The ICC can be interested in whatever it wants, but it has no jurisdiction over Americans.

It’s true that the Trump Administration is vehemently opposed to the idea of an ICC that could try an American for war crimes. (There could be good reason for that position.)

It’s also true that the ICC has never been established in the nearly-universal-support sense that the UN has been; the US (along with China and five others; see below) abstained from the vote that created it in 1998:

…the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court is an agreement that led to the formation of the International Criminal Court (ICC). The Roma Statue was approved in Rome on July 1, 1998, during a diplomatic session. The statute became effective as from July 1, 2002. Data shows that there were 123 member nations as of October 2017.

…After protracted negotiations, the United Nations General Assembly held a conference in June 1988 to finalize negotiations and adoption of the statute. In the vote held during the conference, 120 states were for the statute, seven were against, and 21 abstained. The individual votes of the delegation were not recorded, so the identity of four of the seven is unknown. Three of the states, People’s Republic of China, the United States, and Iran came out publicly.

The Rome Statute was ratified in New York on April 11, 2002, by ten countries. Officially the statute became effective on July 1, 2002 and could investigate crimes. …

What is the Rome Statute?

So it is the case that as things stand, Trump couldn’t be referred for trial. But it’s always possible that if world opinion leaned in that direction, pressure could be brought to bear on the United States. We’re not the only ones who can impose economic sanctions, after all.
eta: correction for post 481: there’s a “today” that should have been “yesterday,” about half-way through.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

AXIOS:

Iraqi President Barham Salih — long known as a pro-American leader — says he is no longer sure he can rely on the U.S. as an ally and may be ready to “recalibrate” Iraq’s relationship with other countries, including Iran and Russia.
…
“The staying power of the United States is being questioned in a very, very serious way,” Salih said. “And allies of the United States are worried about the dependability of the United States.”
…
Several times in the interview, Salih used the words “recalibrate” or “rethinking” to describe how Iraq must approach its relationship with the United States — noting at one point that “dependability is important” in allies.
…
“I’m worried about ethnic cleansing. And this has been the history, tragic history of the Kurdish people and this [is] dangerous and tragic. The humanitarian cost is just awful.”
…
“We live in an interconnected world,” Salih said. “What happened in Iraq impacted your security and vice versa. Your policies impact the Middle East, too.”
…
“We have had serious conversations about this with senior American officials. And I’ve been very clear. I don’t mince my words,” Salih said. “The military defeat of ISIS is an important victory, but not incomplete [sic] and precarious too as well. It can easily unravel. And this is what I’m worried about.”

“Five years of blood, treasure, effort — a lot of human misery went into defeating ISIS,” he said. “This victory was [not] easy, and for anyone to become complacent about it is terrible, reckless, dangerous, tragic.”

[KarlGauss]

@Sherrerd

Another odd feature of this story is the “instant DNA analysis” of the remains of the purported al-Baghdadi. Does instant-DNA-analysis exist?

With modern techniques, 90 minutes. According to NYT.

[Kobal2]

@Walken_After_Midnight

Haaretz:

Sarah Dadouch, Washington Post:

Soooo do we send in the Blue Helmets now ; or do we wait until they’re all gruesomely murdereder *then *send in the Blue Helmets to dig up the mass graves and explain that there was nothing we could have done ? Where we at on the “watching genocides happen” issue ?

[Mijin]

@HurricaneDitka

The ICC can be interested in whatever it wants, but it has no jurisdiction over Americans.

Which is just as well; the US already has the highest proportion of its citizenry behind bars. We can’t afford to also put away people guilty of appalling war crimes.

---

In terms of the possibility of the al-Baghdadi thing being a QPQ…I have to be consistent with these things – I don’t put any stock in conspiracy theories until there is good supporting evidence.
Furthermore, if Trump actually made the call about sending in troops to that facility, I would give him credit for making that call.

Statements like “Trump is a fcking idiot and a crook, and is an embarrassment as an adult human, let alone as a president”, which I happen to believe, are meaningless if we retroflexively try to find fault with everything he does. I want to be as unbiased as possible, where it is still very obvious that overall he’s a fcking disgrace.

[XT]

Not sure if anyone has linked to it, but this is John Oliver’s video on this cluster fuck which, I think, pretty well sums up my own thoughts on this disaster. One thing I really want to have people who bother watching the video look at is the end. Notice something? If not, I’ll give my thoughts…he isn’t joking for the last few minutes. At all. And that’s unusual for him, who can usually joke about and find the blackest humor. He’s not joking though at the end there.

The other thing was the sight of Kurdish civilians throwing potatoes and rocks at Americans fucking running away put both a lump in my throat, shame in my heart and fucking fire in my gut. And it should do the same to everyone watching it, regardless of your petty stupid politics. It’s a travesty.

[Sherrerd]

@KarlGauss

With modern techniques, 90 minutes. According to NYT.

Interesting (thanks). It certainly raises questions about backlogged domestic crime cases, but of course that’s a separate thread.

[XT]

Thought I’d link to this video by AlternateHistoryHub that goes into some of the backstory if you don’t know much about why the US was there, what we were actually doing and why it’s such a monumentally stupid thing that we pulled out, especially how we pulled out.

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Kyle Griffin, MSNBC:

In a searing internal memo, the top American diplomat on the ground in northern Syria has criticized the Trump admin for not trying harder to prevent Turkey’s military offensive — and said Turkish-backed militia fighters committed “war crimes.”

[Flyer]

And. . . .

Trump’s latest flip-flop has risen up to bite Erdogan, Assad, AND Putin all in one astonishing trifecta.

As U.S. troops beef up in eastern Syria to protect oil fields, residents hope their mission will bring stability and prosperity to the remote and resource-rich region — and keep the Syrian government out.

Their hopes reflect the expectations being piled onto the operation, even as President Donald Trump flip-flopped on the scope and duration of troops deployment. He initially ordered all troops out of Syria last month, then decided to keep a force in place to hold the oil infrastructure.

For east Syria, American troops are about much more than oil

Revenue from oil fields that U.S. forces are protecting in northeast Syria will go to U.S. partner forces in the region and not the United States, the Pentagon’s top spokesman said Thursday.

“The revenue from this is not going to the U.S., this is going to the SDF,” Jonathan Hoffman told reporters at the Pentagon, referring to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces.

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/469463-pentagon-revenue-from-syria-oil-fields-going-to-kurdish-led-forces

[Walken_After_Midnight]

Richard Engel, NBC News:

Massive attacks underway against the kurds in northern syria. No ceasefire. Total nonsenses there is. US military officials tell me they are ashamed, “sickened.” It’s cold now outside. What about the families, and kids, out of their homes?