# We have not yet encountered extraterrestrial Strong AI machines, hence the Singularity is impossible **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 30, 2012, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104 "2012-08-30T02:56:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![grude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e47774/32.png) [@grude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/grude)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/41 "2012-08-30T05:10:29Z")
[quote=“Aeschines, post:36, topic:633104”] > [@grude](#): > > Have you read the works of the proponents? _That’s_ how they describe the machines, more or less. The Singularity represents near-infinite intelligence. If there are schisms or wars, they would likely be over pretty quickly, since change occurs virtually instantly within the Singularity. > > I think there are prima facie enough materials. My guess is that they could build 300 billion probes out of materials in our own solar system, if not Earth itself. The probes would not require much energy. Most of their travel would simply be ballistic. Then, once they land on a planet (or asteroid or comet or anything), they could use whatever materials they found there. > . Well I don’t know why you take anything said by a proponent of The Singularity as truth, we have no evidence either way. There is a reason they have been ridiculed as closer to religion than science though. Have you ever tried to just land on a planet and mine materials for replication? This is purely theoretical right now, even discounting the machines might need some really exotic materials for CPUs etc. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/42 "2012-08-30T05:11:08Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I think you can construct a reasonable solution to the Drake Equation that estimates the number of technological civilizations in our galaxy to be approximately one. So long as that’s the case, it’s a possible answer to the Fermi Paradox. This is reasonably stated. But to me, on a gut level, one implies at least a few. And we also have several nearby galaxies to throw into the mix. This is all, by the way, assuming that trans-light-speed travel is impossible. My gut says it _is_ possible, at arbitrary speeds (and Strong AI would find it if it were possible). If so, we have the entire _universe_ in which Strong AI could be developed. I think it’s highly implausible there are not many intelligent species in the universe. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/43 "2012-08-30T05:13:33Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The Singularity represents near-infinite intelligence. Nearly-infinite intelligence means very little reason to visit us and say “hi”. This point has already been made with the example of Moore’s law and we’re talking here about something more able to collect or deduce information by many orders of magnitude. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/44 "2012-08-30T05:17:48Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > **Now that is a big assumption** , just learning that there is little for us to do across the galaxy does not lead us to turn ourselves off or do nothing, and neither our machines, there is plenty to do even in this poor area of the universe without leaving our solar system, and I see less reasons for artificial beings to go outside of the richer in energy and material areas of the center of the milky way. (If we were talking of biologically based AIs, I would see a reason for not going closer to the center as those areas are less hospitable for biologically based beings, but the argument here is that those beings we are talking about are artificial) The Strong AI has virtually infinite time (until the heat death of the universe, if that’s what happens) and plenty of resources to send out the probes, then I don’t see why it won’t send them out. Humans tend to focus only on the best (or at least the best they can afford) since time and resources are limited. The machines can focus on the center of the galaxy _and_ send out probes everywhere else. I don’t see why they wouldn’t do both. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/45 "2012-08-30T05:20:56Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > This is reasonably stated. But to me, on a gut level, one implies at least a few. > > […] > > This is all, by the way, assuming that trans-light-speed travel is impossible. My gut says it _is_ possible, at arbitrary speeds. That’s faith for you. Conceivable. Impossible to demonstrate. Hence my “agnosticism”. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/46 "2012-08-30T05:22:04Z")
[quote=“grude, post:41, topic:633104”] > [@Aeschines](#): > > Well I don’t know why you take anything said by a proponent of The Singularity as truth, we have no evidence either way. There is a reason they have been ridiculed as closer to religion than science though. I do not. I am simply arguing on their own terms. Personally, I think Strong AI is impossible for other reasons. But I do think the argument I’m making is also pertinent. > [@](#): > > Have you ever tried to just land on a planet and mine materials for replication? Not recently. > [@](#): > > This is purely theoretical right now, even discounting the machines might need some really exotic materials for CPUs etc. Perhaps, but the Singularity would have mastered technology to its limits. Not being able to mine an itty bitty asteroid would be a pretty sad way for it to fail to achieve its goals. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/47 "2012-08-30T05:25:12Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > Nearly-infinite intelligence means very little reason to visit us and say “hi”. This point has already been made with the example of Moore’s law and we’re talking here about something more able to collect or deduce information by many orders of magnitude. Yes, but to me this is the equivalent of the Strong AI that just turns itself off. People want to develop strong AI because they envision it doing cool stuff. They envision it taking on what we deem our positive attributes and running with them. Curiosity. The urge to explore and understand. I don’t think the proponents would be enthusiastic about an AI that would fly past Earth and say, “Meh.” ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/48 "2012-08-30T05:25:12Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > The Strong AI has virtually infinite time (until the heat death of the universe, if that’s what happens) and plenty of resources to send out the probes, then I don’t see why it won’t send them out. Humans tend to focus only on the best (or at least the best they can afford) since time and resources are limited. The machines can focus on the center of the galaxy _and_ send out probes everywhere else. I don’t see why they wouldn’t do both. Less material and less energy outside the important regions. And once again, you are assuming they would not have any problems or new things to do in the abundant areas close to the center of the universe. ---
**Author:** ![Max\_the\_Immortal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6de8d8/32.png) [@Max\_the\_Immortal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_the_Immortal)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/49 "2012-08-30T05:26:17Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > Maybe we’ll be the first. “The odds that our civilization is the first are so astronomical as to not be worth considering.” said many billions of people from the universe’s first civilization. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/50 "2012-08-30T05:27:26Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > That’s faith for you. Conceivable. Impossible to demonstrate. > > Hence my “agnosticism”. Not really faith. We’ve demonstrated the ability to do a lot with pretty primitive technology, so I can only suppose that we will be able to do a lot more with advanced technology. More like hope than faith. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/51 "2012-08-30T05:28:45Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > Less material and less energy outside the important regions. And once again, you are assuming they would not have any problems or new things to do in the abundant areas close to the center of the universe. You didn’t respond to the argument. If they have the resources and time (which I argue they would), then why would they not go everywhere they could? ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/52 "2012-08-30T05:32:44Z")
By the way, I’m not sold at all on the concept of singularity, either. There’s an assumption here that despite having brains whose job is merely avoiding that we would become snack for a saber-toothed lion, our intelligence would be sufficient for us to essentially give birth to god, or something close enough. I say it’s a presomptuous hypothesis. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/53 "2012-08-30T05:36:19Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > By the way, I’m not sold at all on the concept of singularity, either. There’s an assumption here that despite having brains whose job is merely avoiding that we would become snack for a saber-toothed lion, our intelligence would be sufficient for us to essentially give birth to god, or something close enough. I say it’s a presomptuous hypothesis. I agree. I think the proponents are full of it. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/54 "2012-08-30T05:40:14Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I don’t think the proponents would be enthusiastic about an AI that would fly past Earth and say, “Meh.” In your hypothesis, it could look at it from very long away and think “Ok. **Aeschines** is going to start a thread about Singularity in an hour or so Now, let’s look at this very interesting particle interaction 100 light years away” Basically, why say “hi”? ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/55 "2012-08-30T05:43:35Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > In your hypothesis, it could look at it from very long away and think “Ok. **Aeschines** is going to start a thread about Singularity in an hour or so Now, let’s look at this very interesting particle interaction 100 light years away” > > Basically, why say “hi”? That is an interesting thought, but it implies technology that essentially allows the AI near-omniscience without activity. It’s plausible. I don’t think it’s the type of world the proponents are hoping for, however. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/56 "2012-08-30T05:44:59Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > I agree. I think the proponents are full of it. I think to. I just don’t think that the argument you’re using to establish it is compelling. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/57 "2012-08-30T05:52:21Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > That’s not how Strong AI proponents treat the Singularity concept. Essentially, it is seen as the development of maximal intelligence, bound only by the physical laws of the universe. That’s only one subset of the singularity idea. The idea, more properly, is that technology is increasing so fast that it cannot continue at this rate indefinitely. Something has to change. It could simply be that technology slows down. As it is, it takes a long, long time to educate a scientist to the point where he or she can begin doing original research. That is a kind of negative feedback on progress. The “singularity” idea could be fulfilled (some would say it is being fulfilled) by cutbacks in science education, and decreases in research funding. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/58 "2012-08-30T05:53:16Z")
> [@clairobscur](#): > > I think to. I just don’t think that the argument you’re using to establish it is compelling. Perhaps. But I think it’s interesting. And I think it would be more interesting to argue against a proponent, since they believe so highly in the powers of AI. I was hoping to snag one here. ---
**Author:** ![Aeschines](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aeschines/32/16251_2.png) [@Aeschines](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aeschines)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/59 "2012-08-30T05:59:00Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > That’s only one subset of the singularity idea. The idea, more properly, is that technology is increasing so fast that it cannot continue at this rate indefinitely. Something has to change. Yeah, but I was clearly talking about the Singularity as viewed by AI proponents. > [@](#): > > It could simply be that technology slows down. As it is, it takes a long, long time to educate a scientist to the point where he or she can begin doing original research. That is a kind of negative feedback on progress. > > The “singularity” idea could be fulfilled (some would say it is being fulfilled) by cutbacks in science education, and decreases in research funding. Right. Personally, I believe we are in a tech plateau right now. From 1900-1950, say, the world was turned upside down by new tech. In the last 60 years, it’s been much more incremental IMO. Cell phones, personal computers, and the Internet. All big, no doubt, but not as big as cars or planes coming on the scene. And, really, all in place in the 1980s (my dad was on Prodigy in the mid 80s). Really nothing too incredibly new since 1995. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2012, 5:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104/60 "2012-08-30T05:59:58Z")
> [@Aeschines](#): > > You didn’t respond to the argument. If they have the resources and time (which I argue they would), then why would they not go everywhere they could? That was the answer, there is less material and energy in the edge of the galaxy, even with time I see no hurry or need to waste materials elsewhere in less rich environments. The point is that there is a lot of time to get busy and enough material to work with in the central areas of the galaxy, and even with plenty of resources you can not ignore economics and the logic they would likely use. (We did go to a barren place ourselves once, but after a flurry of visits we could not find a good reason to waste resources there.) And then we have to assume that they will look for something that we also are interested with, in a scale were we can interact with. In a very likely case they could visit us even today, but their scale or interests might as well guide them to a different solar system and in the end they don’t care about the insignificant critters crawling on a pale blue dot. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-have-not-yet-encountered-extraterrestrial-strong-ai-machines-hence-the-singularity-is-impossible/633104.md?page=4)