# We need a DNC 2012 Thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 5, 2012, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695 "2012-09-05T00:04:13Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 20
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/382 "2012-09-07T16:04:08Z")
A level-headed conservative [seems to disagree](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80910.html?hp=r2) with our own batch of conservatives in this thread, and says the Democrats ran circles around the Republicans this week. This Republican admits the striking difference between the two conventions may even end up costing Romney the election. _gasp!_ ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/383 "2012-09-07T16:11:11Z")
I like Scarborough, but I don’t agree that conventions matter that much. Not many people watch them, and those that do are largely those that have already made up their minds. Joe is correct in his assessment of the two weeks that we just saw, but I think he’s too much of an insider so he may tend to overstate the significance of the conventions. Right now, the conventions round is clearly Obama’s. Now there are three debate rounds to go and a couple more job reports. The best think both sides can do is forget the conventions and work on the ground game. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/384 "2012-09-07T16:17:25Z")
Obama’s speech wasn’t for you or me. I spent some time thinking about who it was aimed at. It was the trickiest of all political speeches, the “I’ve disappointed you” speech. Oddly, the “I screwed up big-time and I’m sorry” speech is a lot easier. Clinton is the prime example. He lost the country and caused Al Gore the presidency because of the overwhelming wave of “how fucking stupid do you have to be to blow the presidency because you fucking couldn’t keep yourself from getting an intern to blow your dick?” Even in all that there was always an undercurrent of “wow, awesome, man; you were the President AND you got blow jobs from your interns. That’s the American Way.” Americans love to forgive celebrities for big colorful falls, especially if they fell because of behaviors that the public would secretly like to do. Charlie Sheen’s show just got picked up for 90 more episodes; the biggest in all TV history. Except for the true haters, Americans are ready to forgive and embrace a larger-than-life figure like Clinton. Obama is in a totally different position. He’s more like the kid with all sorts of promise who manages to get some mediocre grades among with the good ones in high school and now has to go to his parents and ask them to still spring for the big bucks to send him to that fancy college. That shows weakness in a president, always a big disadvantage. The one advantage - which might be even bigger - he has is that most parents in that position will give in and spend the money. They want to see him succeed, they want the bragging rights for themselves, and they’d hate to think somewhere down the line that they could have made the difference but didn’t. It’s also a big advantage that in an election, the alternative is voting for the other guy. That’s like asking parents to take the money away from their child and give it to the shiny foster student they’ve taken in. The speech a high schooler gives on that occasion won’t change many parents’ minds all by itself. What it can do is give them the excuse to do what they wanted to all along - spend the money - and still feel good about themselves doing so. That’s the speech I think Obama gave last night. If he gave the “rah-rah, look at how great I am” speech that would have fired up the base more, he would have forfeited giving those uncertain the excuse they needed to stick with him. And as I’ve been saying all along, the election has little to do with either base - except to ensure that they show up to vote - and everything to do with the voters whose votes are wavering or undecided in those few states in which they will be decisive. Pitching an acceptance speech to 3% of the voters while placating 48 additional percent to make a majority is a bizarre notion and I might be all wet on this. If that is what he did, and it sure sounded like it to me, then it was a home run because it worked on both levels. Or maybe I should say, it was a long well-hit fly ball that may or may not actually go over the fence. We won’t know until November 6. ---
**Author:** ![Larry\_Borgia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/larry_borgia/32/156_2.png) [@Larry\_Borgia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Larry_Borgia)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/385 "2012-09-07T16:42:55Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Clinton is the prime example. He lost the country and caused Al Gore the presidency because of the overwhelming wave of “how fucking stupid do you have to be to blow the presidency because you fucking couldn’t keep yourself from getting an intern to blow your dick?” Kind of a nitpick because I actually found your post insightful and generally agree with it, but Clinton left Office with a 66% approval rating. One of the many foolish mistakes Al Gore made was distancing himself from his very popular boss. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/386 "2012-09-07T16:43:56Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > … And as I’ve been saying all along, the election has little to do with either base - except to ensure that they show up to vote - and everything to do with the voters whose votes are wavering or undecided in those few states in which they will be decisive. … Methinks you are a bit too dismissive of the base issue, and missing some of the finer marketing points of conventioneering. [538 yet again.](http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/obama-would-be-big-favorite-with-fired-up-base/) The base for the GOP is smaller but more easily fired and usually more reliable even when not fired. (This year perhaps their coming out even though not fired was not able to be assumed, given their extreme tepidness to Romney, hence the Ryan pick.) The Democratic base is significantly larger and _if_ both sides were equally coming out to vote it would be a big Democratic advantage. But they often don’t. > [@](#): > > On average over the last five public surveys, 35 percent of registered voters identify themselves as Democrats and 30 percent as Republicans. That advantage is down somewhat for Democrats since 2008, but it is an advantage nevertheless. > > In essentially every recent presidential election, however, the Democratic candidate has performed worse among actual Election Day voters than among the broader pool of registered voters. … > > … I decided to run a version of our “now-cast” — our estimate of what would happen if the election were held today — on a registered-voter rather than likely-voter basis. … In the regular, likely-voter version of our “now-cast,” Mr. Obama is estimated to have a 68 percent chance of winning the Electoral College in an election held today. But on the basis of registered voters, he would be a 91 percent favorite. Instead of being ahead in the popular vote by a hair over one point, he’d be expected to win by around four. And he’d be projected to win 322 electoral votes, rather than 291. > > It’s very unlikely, of course, that Democrats will turn out as high a percentage of their voters as Republicans do. The demographic groups that favor Democrats are just harder to get to the polls. > > But if Mr. Obama can narrow Republicans’ advantage in this area — reducing the gap between registered-voter and likely-voter polls to one or two points rather than three, he can get halfway there, and make Mr. Romney’s task much harder. > > That’s why, with the exception of the prime-time speeches by Michelle Obama and Bill Clinton, nearly every other speech a Democrat has given at the party’s convention in Charlotte, N.C., has been aimed at firing up different parts of the Democratic base, often with strident rhetoric. … Note though that “exception of the prime-time” … if the undecideds are ever watching the convention coverage that’s when they are tuned in, prime-time. They miss the more strident bits in the off hours aimed at the base (who are more likely to be watching then and making sure their interests are represented and even pandered to) and can be narrowcasted a sales pitch designed for them: Michelle’s highlighting his likeability; Clinton’s damn straight you are better off, you were in economic free fall and now you are climbing back up; and Obama’s pitch to the undecideds as well. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 4:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/387 "2012-09-07T16:55:31Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > The drop in unemployment was caused because 368,000 people stopped looking for work and therefore were no longer counted in the survey. > > “These numbers are not very strong,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank. “The job market is improving, but only gradually.” This whole post is a quote from a CNN story. Please cite your sources and make it clear when you’re quoting someone else **moonshot925**. Otherwise it looks like you’re passing off the first sentence as your own idea. ---
**Author:** ![yorick73](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/b5a626/32.png) [@yorick73](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yorick73)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/388 "2012-09-07T17:31:45Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > A level-headed conservative [seems to disagree](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80910.html?hp=r2) with our own batch of conservatives in this thread, and says the Democrats ran circles around the Republicans this week. This Republican admits the striking difference between the two conventions may even end up costing Romney the election. _gasp!_ I thought the Dems did a better job than the Pubs in their respective conventions. Clinton was great and even Biden did a great job. I thought Obama’s speech was flat and lacked passion though. I see many on the Left thought the same thing: [Peter Beinart](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/07/obama-acceptance-speech-goes-vague-instead-of-getting-tough.html) [Michael Tomasky](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/07/obama-a-pedestrian-and-overconfident-speech.html) [Chris Cillizza](http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/09/06/winners-and-losers-from-the-final-night-of-the-democratic-national-convention/) ---
**Author:** ![Esox\_Lucius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/848f3c/32.png) [@Esox\_Lucius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Esox_Lucius)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/389 "2012-09-07T17:57:20Z")
> [@Nzinga\_Seated](#): > > No, I thought of the Biggie Smalls lyric, “I’m not only a client, I’m the playa’ president!” Of course, Biggie got that from the old Hair Club for Men commercial. > > I thought that was a great thing to say, by the way. Just declaring a flat, simple truth…Just stating the obvious with a knowing smile. Nice. That’s why I thought of the Andrew Shepherd line. By by reminding everyone in the movie of the obvious, it asserted the sitting president’s position of strength. But then I’m uncool enough that I don’t know Biggie Smalls.:o ---
**Author:** ![etv78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/d78d45/32.png) [@etv78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/etv78)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/390 "2012-09-07T18:34:53Z")
> [@Larry\_Borgia](#): > > Kind of a nitpick because I actually found your post insightful and generally agree with it, but Clinton left Office with a 66% approval rating. One of the many foolish mistakes Al Gore made was distancing himself from his very popular boss. Gore couldn’t figure out how to embrace Clinton the politician while simutameously distancing himself from Clinton the person. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/391 "2012-09-07T18:36:42Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#): > > A level-headed conservative [seems to disagree](http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0912/80910.html?hp=r2) with our own batch of conservatives in this thread, and says the Democrats ran circles around the Republicans this week. This Republican admits the striking difference between the two conventions may even end up costing Romney the election. _gasp!_ This bit made me laugh: > [@](#): > > By the time the last of the confetti fell on the Democratic convention floor, it became frustratingly clear that the most compelling speaker in Tampa, Fla., had been Clint Eastwood’s chair. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/392 "2012-09-07T18:47:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Quite true. And what did the speech really say? All I heard was platitudes. That works fine when you’re leading in the polls as a challenger. It’s not sufficient when you are an incumbent with an underwater approval rating. [Ahem.](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-obama-approval-jumps-after-dnc?ref=fpb) > [@](#): > > President Obama gets a 52 percent approval rating against 43 percent disapproval in Gallup’s daily tracking poll, which surveys 500 Americans a night and averages three days of data. The current tracking poll samples the nights of the Democratic National Convention and represents a major jump for Obama, who has basically been running even on approval in tracking and other major national polls, if not a little underwater. > > “This uptick in these two indicators stands in contrast to tracking during the Republican Convention, during which there was no discernible bounce on the ballot tracking. Gallup does not track other measures on Romney that would be comparable to the job approval figure for Obama,” Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport wrote about the bounce. “The current data are quite preliminary and for the most part don’t reflect the influence of Obama’s late Thursday night speech, if any.” ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/393 "2012-09-07T19:11:57Z")
> [@Jack\_Batty](#): > > I was playing the Joe Biden drinking game. > > One shot for every, “folks” and drain your beer for every "Ladies and gentlemen. I assume the rules only compel you to drink a tiny sip every time he said “literally” because otherwise you would be dead before the end of the speech. Literally dead. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Hamster\_King](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8edcca/32.png) [@The\_Hamster\_King](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Hamster_King)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/394 "2012-09-07T19:13:27Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > [Ahem.](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-obama-approval-jumps-after-dnc?ref=fpb) That’s the highest approval rating Obama has had since **2009**. Looks like the Democrats might be getting one hell of a bump from the convention. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/395 "2012-09-07T19:14:38Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > What’s Obama got, like an elementary school in Indonesia? Ha! Yeah!!! And that’s only because it’s his home country!! ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/396 "2012-09-07T19:29:13Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > Anyway, as I said last night, Obama’s speech was weak either because he has given up or he got a glimpse of a disappointing jobs report. Seems like the latter was true. This rates right up there with last election’s “Palin is being attacked by the left because they’re afraid of just how smart and right she is.” I can smell the flop-sweat from here. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/397 "2012-09-07T19:42:41Z")
> [@](#): > > Originally Posted by Omg a Black Conservative View Post > > Anyway, as I said last night, Obama’s speech was weak either because he has given up or he got a glimpse of a disappointing jobs report. Seems like the latter was true. Or because it wasn’t weak. ---
**Author:** ![Jack\_Batty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jack_batty/32/3201_2.png) [@Jack\_Batty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jack_Batty)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/398 "2012-09-07T20:04:14Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > I assume the rules only compel you to drink a tiny sip every time he said “literally” because otherwise you would be dead before the end of the speech. Literally dead. It’s ok. I took figurative chugs for all of those. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/399 "2012-09-07T20:40:00Z")
> [@The\_Hamster\_King](#): > > That’s the highest approval rating Obama has had since **2009**. > > Looks like the Democrats might be getting one hell of a bump from the convention. I hope that happens. The President has been kicked around ad nauseum for the worst economy since FDR’s, and he doesn’t have a world war to turn dying manufacturing jobs into munitions factories. No escape valve for BO he has to deal with paranoids who hate anything that could do a collective good, that would be too “socialist” I know I was thinking to myself “fuck those car company corporate bastards” who flew in to Washington on their corporate jets looking for a handout, and dang if the President wasn’t correct in doing the very thing to restore confidence in the economy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/400 "2012-09-08T01:06:39Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > [Ahem.](http://livewire.talkingpointsmemo.com/entry/gallup-obama-approval-jumps-after-dnc?ref=fpb) And now you know why my panties are in a twist. But I think the jobs report will bring him back to where he was. Intrade’s expectations haven’t changed. ---
**Author:** ![Frostillicus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9bcb4/32.png) [@Frostillicus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frostillicus)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695/401 "2012-09-08T02:30:14Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Clinton’s awesome, but doesn’t it just remind people that Obama isn’t Bill Clinton? Well, Bill spent the entire speech eloquently arguing for the re-election of Barack Obama, which is clearly good news for the McCain campaign. :rolleyes: [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695.md?page=19) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/we-need-a-dnc-2012-thread/633695.md?page=21)