…I look at our response as a contrast between “waterfall” and “agile.” NZ approached Covid-19 with an agile methodology. The first question asked was “how do we save as many lives as possible.” And so the scientists and the planners went to work on answering that question.
The next question went to the numbers people: working within the constraints of “how do we save as many lives as possible, how do we keep the economy going and keep as many people employed as we can?”
And so the numbers people went to try and solve those problems, working within the constraints of whatever it was that the first group said had to be done. There was no conflict between the two. It was never about a binary choice: health vs economy. There was a hierarchy, but that was just a matter of priority when in reality the two just worked hand in hand.
And because it was an agile approach it meant we could adapt as we went. The original approach wasn’t intended to eliminate. The government thought that we had community spread. So the hard lockdown was put in place to stamp out that spread.
But then the numbers started to come down and the government realised that elimination was a possibility. So priorities shifted, plans for border controls got reassessed and strengthened. And going forward that became the new plan.
So do we have the money to keep this up indefinitely? I don’t think anyone can answer that question right now. Probably not-as-we-are-right-now. But how we are right now isn’t the way we will be in a year from now. The plan is going to pivot and change and adapt from now until then. What depresses me about what is happening in America is that I can’t see a way out of the mess you are in right now. Even in this thread people are advocating “waterfall” approaches when what you really need is a dynamic response with strong leadership from the Federal government and a huge effort from the States. But that isn’t going to happen without a change in administration and the earliest that can happen is January next year. And the push-back on a new regime (if the current regime are voted out) will be huge.
…as I’ve just said in the other reply, I get it. It could be longer. Businesses are planning and pivoting to remain isolated for at least a year, maybe two.
But a business that can survive without short-term visitors from overseas for a couple of years will also be able to survive longer than that if they have to. Business are already adapting. They can’t survive without cashflow, so if they can generate enough cash to see-through two years then they have reinvented themselves already with a sustainable, cash positive business model, and will be able to maintain that cashflow for additional years after that.
The economy is just going to have to adapt. And it is.
What you linked there “is provisional and should be regarded as an early, indicative estimate of intentions to trade only, subject to revision.” Not surprisingly, exports actually suffered.
…oh give me a fucking break. For starters “seafood and dairy” is not “all exports” and it isn’t even “all of the primary sector”, you’ve literally compared apples and oranges. And while my cite talked about provisional data, your cite is mainly about forecasts. It said seafood exports were down, while dairy remained steady. To characterize that as “exports actually suffered” is grossly misleading. Forecasts predict that dairy will take a hit: but the entire point of forecasting and reports like this is to mitigate that hit. Why do you think the Ministry of Primary Industries produced the report?
And of course some industries are going to be hit harder than others. Who is arguing otherwise?
Its a global fucking pandemic. Its literally chaos out there and America is at the heart of it. You’ve allowed Covid-19 to get out of control. We are locked up tight because you guys can’t get it sorted. This really isn’t the “gotcha” that you thought it was, okie dokie? Some industries are gonna get hit harder than others. Some businesses will make it. Many will not. But opening the floodgates to Covid-19 is not the solution.
…because exports are actually up? The data is provisional because the financial quarter wasn’t over. But a standard disclaimer doesn’t make that data any less accurate.
…its (essentially) exactly the same data from exactly the same source minus the standard disclaimer that the MPI put on all provisional data. Where do you think the export data comes from? How do you think it all works?
Fine. Do you not see how this could have been a quicker and more cordial disagreement if you hadn’t gone off on a “you guys don’t get it!” rant when I questioned a small part of your post? My god, dude.
…fine. Do you not see how this could have been a quicker and more cordial disagreement if you hadn’t cherry picked something to argue about but you ended up getting your facts completely wrong? My god, dude.
I live and work in an area driven by the ski-industry. They shut down early, and who knows if they will reopen this winter. The effect is going to be so wide ranging on restaurants, bars and hotels it’s hard to imagine. The population of my county at least triples on holidays such as Christmas week. This is the $ that keeps these businesses alive.
No smart person want’s to cram people on chair lifts and lift lines. Or in apre-ski bars and restaurants. Not sure what they will do.
Lift lines probably not so much. But often, when a person is done with a run, they pull down their face gator and are breathing heavily. Same with crowded chair lifts and enclosed gondolas.